The media can really create anxiety, saying that there is an expectation of one rate cut next year?!

The dot plot clearly shows:

4 people expect no rate cut,

4 people expect 1 rate cut (25 basis points),

4 people expect 2 rate cuts (50 basis points).

The probabilities are the same, so how did he summarize it as an expectation of one rate cut next year?!!

Furthermore, look at other predictions:

3 people predict one rate hike,

2 people predict 3 rate cuts (75 basis points),

1 person predicts 4 rate cuts (100 basis points),

1 person predicts 6 rate cuts (150 basis points).

The average calculation is [3*25+4*0+4*(-25)*4*(-50)+2*(-75)+1*(-100)+1*(-150)]/19=-32.9

The average prediction is a rate cut of 32.9 basis points, which also exceeds one rate cut. So how did he summarize it as an expectation of one rate cut next year?!!

In fact, Federal Reserve officials are not in disagreement; they simply have no conclusion.

Basically, employment and the economy are not doing well, which can be confirmed, and the Federal Reserve's statement has also noted this.

However, after cutting rates in September-October, the CPI data for October-November is simply absent. October's data is mostly missing, and November's will not be released until December 18. Federal Reserve officials also do not know whether inflation has rebounded after the recent rate cuts.

And after the rate cut in December, it is also uncertain whether employment and the economy have eased to some extent.

Federal Reserve officials do not vote anonymously; they either have discussed it or tacitly agreed to present a dot plot to the outside world that lacks a conclusion.

With Federal Reserve officials not having a conclusion, how did he summarize it as an expectation of one rate cut next year?!!