Bitcoin, gold, and silver suddenly gained new strength on Tuesday, the day before it seems the Fed will lower interest rates again.
The first cryptocurrency and the two safe commodities, gold and silver, may experience strong price movements around the Fed's interest rate announcement. The XAG price has now surpassed 60 USD per ounce for the first time ever and has risen +108% during 2025.
Best price targets for BTC, XAU, and XAG ahead of Fed cuts
Everyone is following the Fed's interest rate decision tomorrow and Jerome Powell's press conference afterwards. This is one of the week's most important macro events for Bitcoin and safe commodities.
Data from the CME FedWatch Tool shows that those betting on the interest rate see an 87.6% chance that the Fed will lower rates.
An interest rate cut from the Fed often benefits Bitcoin as it adds more liquidity to the market. Gold usually benefits the fastest and most clearly from interest rate cuts. Silver reacts a little later but often performs stronger than gold during significant recoveries. Therefore, silver sometimes spikes even more strongly after cuts when the trend is already positive.
Gold reacts first and most predictably
Bitcoin benefits when liquidity increases
Silver often becomes a winner late in the cycle, with strong momentum
Right now, the market has already started to price in the event in advance. Traders are already acting ahead of the almost certain interest rate cut.
Bitcoin is approaching 100,000 USD ahead of the Fed's interest rate announcement
The Bitcoin price is currently trading positively and is within a rising channel since the decline to 80,600 USD on November 21. As long as the price stays within this channel, there is a chance for continued upward movement.
According to the RSI indicator, momentum has increased, which could lift BTC higher. Since the RSI is above the 50 level, there is buying strength, but it balances on the edge as this mid-position could also make room for sellers.
Bitcoin faces resistance at the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 97,015 USD. There is also the most important Fibonacci resistance at 61.8% at 98,018 USD.
This is an important buying level for late buyers. If Bitcoin breaks through this level with high volume, it indicates that the trend has strengthened. Bitcoin could then quickly target 103,399 USD, which marks 50% of the range.
In a very positive scenario, BTC could reach 38.2% Fibonacci, indicating a clearly strong trend.
If, however, the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance holds, the trend may instead turn downward.
Sellers acting now could make the 78.6% Fibonacci level not hold as support. This increases the risk that BTC will lose its rising channel.
Then the Bitcoin price could fall towards the support at 80,600 USD. This would represent a decline of almost 15% from current levels.
Gold may be in a phase A classic recovery zone
The gold price may drop towards the bottom of 4,199 USD and perhaps break the rising support level before it turns up again. RSI shows that momentum is decreasing, which increases the risk of a correction in the XAU price.
But since the RSI is still above 50 and there is strong support from the 50-day and 100-day EMA at 4,202 USD and 4,203 USD respectively, the price can still go upwards.
Important support exists between 4,178 and 4,192 USD. If the area holds, the positive structure remains intact.
At the same time, resistance is at 4,241 USD. If the price breaks above this level, a new upward phase could begin.
In such a scenario, the targets are 4,260 USD, or with even stronger development, 4,300 USD before a possible retest of the record 4,381 USD (ATH).
Therefore, current levels may be good for buying, and any dip provides an opportunity for late buyers.
Silver has risen 6 times more than S&P 500 so far this year
The silver price is currently strong and has risen six times more than S&P 500 this year. XAG/USD is now on track for the largest increase in twelve months since 1979. This is one of the best developments in stock market history.
After reaching a new record of 60,794 USD, the silver price is now at levels where no one knows where it will go, and it could continue upwards.
In the 15-minute chart below, the XAG/USD price shows a clear sign of strength. The silver price has left the area near 58.83 USD and has risen quickly, indicating that the market is now shifting from sideways movement to expansion.
All major EMA lines (50/100/200) are now pointing upwards and are in the correct order, indicating that the trend is strong in the short term.
Momentum supports the movement as RSI is above 73, indicating that buyers are strong. At the same time, the RSI also warns that the market may become overheated now, and therefore a minor reaction downwards or a pause may occur before the rise continues.
The previous resistance zone at 58.80–59.00 USD is now the first support area. The next important target is around 61.00–61.50 USD.
As long as the silver price remains above the rising 50-EMA (red), one can continue to buy on dips. The risk of the price turning down increases only if silver falls back below 59.00 USD.
