Old players in the crypto world understand: "A coin without a story, fluctuations are just dull knives cutting meat." Today, XRP/USDT on OKEX's 4-hour chart clearly played out this phrase - starting from 2.06, it rose to 2.11, then crashed back to 2.09, stuck in the range of 2.0-2.15, looking "stable", but in reality, it is the "prelude to burying people."
First, let's analyze the "tricks" in the order book: this morning right after the market opened, an address placed a buy order of 5 million U at 2.08, directly pushing the price up to 2.11. However, before hitting the resistance level of 2.15, a sell order of 2 million coins pushed it down - this is not "washing the market", it's "testing the water with a scythe". If you look back at last Thursday's trend, it's exactly the same: from 2.05 to 2.14, then a reverse drop to 2.03, trapping nearly 3000 retail investors chasing after the rise. This wave is even fiercer, with the increase reduced to just 0.05, clearly showing it's about "making retail investors trade frequently in a narrow range, earning transaction fees while exhausting their bullets."
Now combining with today's news: first, the Federal Reserve is meeting tonight, and the entire crypto circle is 'holding coins waiting for signals'—BTC is hovering around 93000, ETH hasn't broken 3400, and for XRP, a coin that 'follows up but not down', there is simply no capital willing to pull it up independently; second, Ripple released a 'cross-border payment test report' this morning, but did not mention any new partner banks, in other words, it's just 'recycling old news'. Remember that wave in May when Ripple announced cooperation with a South American bank, XRP shot up from 0.5 to 0.8, now this 'news-less report' can't even make a splash.
I dare say that today's fluctuation of XRP is 'intentional': RSI is stuck at 57, just touched the overbought line and then fell back, KDJ's J value dropped to 23, this is 'the main force controlling the market to create fluctuations'—a quantitative fund I was watching last week was 'high-frequency arbitraging' in the range of 2.0-2.1 for XRP, making daily profits of 0.02 dollars from the volatility, profiting from retail investors' 'chasing highs and cutting lows'. What’s even more heart-wrenching is that the funding rate for OKEX's XRP perpetual contracts has been positive for 3 consecutive hours, indicating that the bulls are still rushing in, and waiting for the Federal Reserve to send 'hawkish' signals tonight, these long positions will become 'fuel for collective liquidation'.
Don't disbelief, XRP played this way last November: it was stuck in the range of 0.3-0.35 for 5 days, while retail investors were all making swings inside, and as soon as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, it directly broke through 0.28, trapping nearly 200 million U positions. The current trend is simply a 'replication of the script'—the only difference is that at that time there was still the expectation of the 'SEC settlement' as a bottom support, now there's not even a 'story' left.
Finally, let me leave you with a 'life and death game': If the Federal Reserve is 'dovish' tonight, XRP will touch the resistance level of 2.15 at most, and then immediately drop back to 2.05; if it is 'hawkish', the support at 2.0 won't last an hour and will directly drop to 1.95. I have a short position of 2 million U already placed at 2.12, and those who dare to follow are comrades; those who dare to chase the long side are just providing me with profitable vegetables.
Twelve years on the financial road, the exclusive secrets of pioneers in the crypto circle: insight into the market, steady progress, pay attention to the Celestial Master's teachings on how to steadily increase value, risk and opportunity coexist in investment, blind operation is a big taboo in the crypto circle!
