The crypto market is entering a rare phase where deep quiet and early signs of recovery coexist. After weeks of steady outflows, ETH spot ETFs are finally seeing modest inflows again, suggesting that redemption pressure is easing. At the same time, broader crypto ETFs have started to rebound: +$716 million flowed in last week, and +$1.8 billion over the past two weeks. Total AUM has climbed 7.9% from November lows to $180 billion.
Breaking down the flows, Bitcoin ETFs drew +$352 million, XRP +$245 million, and Chainlink saw a record +$52.8 million—an impressive 54% of its total AUM. Short-Bitcoin ETPs, meanwhile, posted −$18.7 million in outflows, the largest since March, signaling a clear reduction in bearish bets.
Despite this improvement, the market remains unusually subdued. On-chain activity shows retail participation at “near zero,” with volumes and network usage indicating a market that feels almost frozen—what analysts describe as “dead quiet.” The silence contrasts sharply with the growing strength of institutional flows.
Yet beneath this calm, a notable shift is emerging. The Coinbase Premium Index—negative for much of November—has been climbing, narrowing sharply and turning positive at times. This is an early indication that U.S. spot demand is returning, a metric that has historically aligned with turning points in market sentiment.
Stronger ETF inflows, bearish unwind, improving U.S. premium, and a fully absent retail class create a market in transition. As year-end approaches, the key question is whether this silence represents stagnation—or the calm before a renewed uptrend.
Written by XWIN Research Japan
