#美联储降息 Federal Reserve rate cuts: bullish or bearish
- Expected rate cut: generally positive for risk assets (stock market, cryptocurrencies), gold, and non-US currencies; negative for the US dollar and US Treasury yields; if the rate cut is less than expected or hawkish, it may reverse and weaken.
- Rate cut exceeding expectations (concerns about economic recession): short-term positive for the bond market and gold, but long-term may suppress the stock market and other risk assets due to recession expectations.
- Latest situation as of December 2025: The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points as expected, with the dot plot indicating only a 25 basis point cut in 2026-2027, the pace is slowing, and the market tends to fluctuate with limited bullishness.
