🏛️ FOMC IN 3 HOURS: Whales Are Already Positioning

The Fed announces in 3 hours. Everyone's waiting.

But my on-chain data shows: whales aren't waiting. They're MOVING.

What I'm detecting right now:

→ Whale Impact: HIGH

→ Block Volume: 5,677 BTC

→ Fee Status: HIGH

→ Single TX detected: 440 BTC (~$40M)

Fees are HIGH. Volume is HIGH. This isn't normal pre-announcement calm.

Someone knows something. Or someone is betting big.

The correlation that matters:

→ BTC-TNX: -0.43 (moderate inverse)

TNX = 10-Year Treasury Yield. This is the transmission mechanism.

Fed dovish → Yields drop → BTC benefits (-0.43)

Fed hawkish → Yields rise → BTC pressure

Current setup:

→ BTC-SPY: +0.36 (follows equities)

→ BTC-VIX: -0.22 (inverse to fear)

→ Regime: RISK-ON TRENDING

→ BTC: +2.59% today (already rallying)

What the market expects:

~90% probability of 25bp cut priced in.

But the reaction depends on Powell's TONE:

Dovish guidance → Yields tank → BTC pumps harder

Hawkish cut → Yields hold → Rally stalls

Why whale activity matters:

When fees spike to HIGH pre-FOMC, it signals:

Large players repositioning

Urgency in the market

Conviction bets being placed

$40M single transaction isn't retail. That's institutional.

The divergence:

Fear & Greed: 29 (Fear)

Whale Activity: HIGH with urgency

Retail is cautious. Whales are loading.

Same pattern we've seen before major moves.

My FOMC playbook:

Watch TNX immediately post-announcement

If yields DROP sharply → BTC likely extends rally

If yields HOLD/RISE → Watch for pullback

Monitor whale exchange deposits post-decision

The -0.43 correlation is your edge.

Don't trade the headline. Trade the yield reaction.

3 hours to go. Whales are ready. Are you?

#FOMCWatch #bitcoin #FederalReserve #MacroAnalysis #cryptotrading #BTC $BTC