📊 CPI DATA INCOMING: How Inflation Will Move Bitcoin

182,000 people watching #CPIWatch. Everyone's guessing.

I'm not guessing. I'm measuring the correlation that matters.

The key number: -0.43

My macro correlation engine shows BTC-TNX at -0.43 (moderate negative).

TNX = 10-Year Treasury Yield. CPI data moves yields. Yields move Bitcoin.

The transmission mechanism:

CPI higher than expected → Inflation fears → Yields RISE → BTC pressure

CPI lower than expected → Rate cut hopes → Yields DROP → BTC pumps

That's the -0.43 correlation at work.

Current macro setup (Dec 11):

→ BTC-TNX: -0.43 (moderate inverse)

→ BTC-SPY: +0.36 (follows equities)

→ BTC-VIX: -0.22 (weak fear inverse)

→ BTC-DXY: +0.10 (neutral to dollar)

→ Regime: RISK-ON TRENDING

→ Sentiment: NEUTRAL

What this means for CPI:

Bitcoin is positioned as rate-sensitive. The -0.43 TNX correlation is your playbook:

✅ CPI comes in COOL → Yields drop → BTC benefits

❌ CPI comes in HOT → Yields spike → BTC headwinds

On-chain right now:

→ Whale Impact: HIGH

→ Volume: 2,695 BTC

→ Max TX: 299 BTC (~$27M)

→ Fee Status: NORMAL

Whales are active but calm. No panic positioning pre-CPI.

Fear & Greed: 29 (Fear)

Retail cautious. Whales still moving size. Classic divergence.

The edge:

Don't trade the CPI headline. Trade the TNX reaction.

Watch Treasury yields post-release. When TNX moves, BTC follows inverse at -0.43.

The headline is noise. The yield reaction is signal.

#CPIWatch #bitcoin #Inflation #MacroAnalysis #CryptoTrading #BTC $BTC