High Valuation New Project Latest Short Recommendation RLS (Rayls)
Shorting Core Logic
1. Valuation Bubble at Market's Highest
FDV/MC ratio 6.7x leads the new coin rankings, 85% of tokens locked means the current $19M market cap carries a $127.6M valuation, any unlocking triggers selling pressure. Benchmark against the already zeroed PIPE (similar infrastructure narrative), RLS pricing is clearly detached from fundamental support.
2. Heavy VC Investment + Upcoming Unlock
Investors and team each hold 22% and 17%, linear unlocking starts after a 12-month cliff in December 2026 for 36 months. While the main unlocking happens after one year, 35% of the ecosystem treasury is already in a 48-month linear release, averaging about 0.73% supply release per month. In the last 30 days, there has been a net inflow of 300 million RLS on-chain, with whales holding an average of only 15 days, indicating short-term speculation rather than long-term locking.
3. Extremely Weak Fundamentals
No TVL: Mainnet not launched, all indicators are zero with no users: 340,000 users on the testnet cannot convert to mainnet value. Competitive Landscape: RWA tokenization competitors include mature projects like Railgun, Zcash, Polymesh, etc. Regulatory Risks: Privacy features face compliance challenges under Brazil, EU MiCA framework.
4. Perfect Technical Setup for Shorting
Multi-Cycle Bear Market: Price below all EMA and SMA on 1h/4h/1d, RSI nearing oversold: 4h RSI 35.74, 1d RSI unavailable but expected <30. OI Crash -15.09%: Open interest dropped significantly from a high, showing leveraged exits. Positive Funding Rate +0.005%: Longs pay shorts, excessive leveraged longs face liquidation pressure. Long Positions Dominating Liquidations: 24h liquidations $196,759, of which 89% are long positions ($175,334).
5. Catalyst Time Window
Short Listing Time: Just launched on December 2nd on Binance and 5 other exchanges, FOMO market has ended. Unlocking about to begin: Ecosystem treasury monthly unlock continues to apply pressure. Mainnet Delay Risk: Q1 2026 mainnet delay could trigger a collapse in confidence.
Operational Suggestions
📍 Entry Price: $0.01275-0.01280 (current price or rebound to 1h EMA12) 🎯 Target Prices:
First Level: $0.01218 (1h Bollinger Band lower bound, -4.3%)
Second Level: $0.01178 (4h Bollinger Band lower bound, -7.7%)
Third Level: $0.01000 (psychological barrier, -21.5%) 🛡️ Stop Loss Price: $0.01328 (+4.5%, above 1h Bollinger Band upper bound) ⚖️ Risk-Reward Ratio: 1.86 (excellent level) 💰 Suggested Position: 30-40% principal, leverage ≤2x $RLS #加密市场观察
