#美联储降息
Investment banks are increasingly bearish! The Federal Reserve is singing a 'dove' solo, and the dollar is set to restart its decline.
The dollar is expected to weaken again by 2026—due to the Federal Reserve continuing its loose monetary policy, while other central banks either maintain stable interest rates or are close to raising them.
According to consensus forecasts compiled by Bloomberg, the dollar index is projected to fall by about 3% by the end of 2026.
This outlook depends on expectations that the U.S. labor market will remain weak.
The risks unfavorable to the dollar outweigh the positive factors.
A weaker dollar will have a chain reaction on the overall economy: raising import costs, increasing the value of companies' overseas profits, and promoting exports—this may be welcomed by the Trump administration, which has been critical of the U.S. trade deficit.
A weaker dollar may also extend the upward trend in emerging markets.
Positive outlooks for the Brazilian real and a few Asian currencies like the Korean won and the yuan.
The dollar 'often depreciates when it performs well in other parts of the world.'
A few opposing viewpoints expect the dollar to strengthen relative to some other major currencies, primarily based on a strong U.S. economy.
The dollar is overvalued, and as economic growth and stock returns recover in other regions, the dollar will weaken relative to major currencies by 2026.