Recently, many people have been asking me:

"Japan is going to raise interest rates, does this mean we are going to see another global crash?"

To be honest, this kind of panic is already a step behind.

The current Bank of Japan has long learned the set of the Federal Reserve - expectation management.

It's not about suddenly taking action, but rather about giving a heads-up in advance and allowing the market to digest slowly.

Many people, upon seeing the words "Japan interest rate hike", immediately flash back to the last time:

BTC dropped from 60,000 to 50,000 in one go, and liquidity tightened instantly.

But you need to understand one thing:

The last time was a surprise attack, this time it's an open script.

The current market is not foolish.

Smart money has already positioned itself early, going long on the yen and hedging risks.

In other words—this expectation of an 'interest rate hike' has already been traded through once.

Since the money has already been made in advance,

how many people will panic sell when the news actually lands?

This is a typical case—buying expectations, selling facts.

There is another point that many people overlook:

Japan's government bond yields have already risen in advance.

This so-called 'interest rate hike' is more like a confirmation of the status quo rather than a sudden tightening.

The more critical aspect is the comparative relationship—

on one side, Japan is slowly and cautiously 'jogging',

on the other hand, the Federal Reserve has just cut interest rates and released liquidity.

In this context,

will global funds really flow back to Japan on a large scale?

At least from a timing perspective, the logic does not hold.

So I am more inclined to think that:

this time, Japan's interest rate hike will make a lot of noise, but the rain may not fall heavily.

the real danger often does not lie in the policy itself,

but rather the moment when emotions are concentrated and released.

And now,

the market has already panicked in advance.

Don't scare yourself off the train first.

The most painful stage of deleveraging may have already passed.#加密市场反弹 #美联储降息 #加密市场观察 $BTC $XRP $ETH