Today's Macroeconomic Trends × Crypto Market Observation: Federal Reserve Rate Cut + Speculations of Japan's Rate Hike, where is the market really headed?

Brothers, two recent news articles have caused some chaos in the crypto world:

📍 1. The Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision has been announced

The Federal Reserve has just lowered interest rates by 25 basis points again, keeping the benchmark rate in the 3.50–3.75% range. This should have signaled a loosening of funds, yet it did not directly cause BTC/ETH to surge. I will explain the reasons below.

📍 2. The market is discussing Japan's possible interest rate hike

There are voices saying that the Bank of Japan might start raising interest rates, which is extremely rare in the past 30 years. Many people panicked upon hearing this, thinking that a global financial earthquake was imminent — but in reality, I believe this is more about expectation management rather than a sudden tightening of liquidity.

🧠 In summary, today's logic is:

Good news has been anticipated, and bad news has not truly landed—so the market first fluctuates before choosing a direction.**

🔍 Why didn't the interest rate cut ignite the market?

Many believe “interest rate cuts = liquidity = bull market,” but the current market is not that simple.

📌 Expectations have long been digested by the market.

The news of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut has long been factored into prices in traders' and institutions' models.

So when the good news lands, bulls won't rush in to buy just because it “meets expectations”; instead, there will be selling pressure to take profits.

📌 Funds are still observing the macro rhythm.

The US dollar index, US Treasury yields, stock market volatility, and oil prices—these factors collectively influence the trend of risk assets.

More complex than a single rate change.

This leads to a common phenomenon:

📉 Good news lands → Emotions react first → Short-term fluctuations → Direction unclear.

🔎 Is Japan's interest rate hike really that scary?

Many people see “Japan is going to raise interest rates” and think:

🇯🇵 Japan's long-term zero interest rate → Borrowing yen for carry trade → Global asset prices pushed higher → Once interest rates rise → Carry trade unwinds → Global financial turbulence.

This logic may seem daunting, but there are several real factors to understand:

✅ Japan's years of negative interest rate environment have already been anticipated by the market.

Interest rate hikes may only be minor adjustments, not significant tightening.

✅ If interest rate hikes really happen, they need to be very gradual and cautious.

The monetary policy won't shift overnight from “dovish” to “hawkish.”

📌 More critically:

Rather than saying it's an interest rate hike, it's better to say the market is testing the attitude of funds.

Because the monetary policies of the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve need to consider their own national economies, rather than simply targeting “global finance.”

📊 The logic of short-term impact on BTC / ETH.

Here are the key points:

🔹 Interest rate cut landed + Already factored into expectations → Although there may be a short-term rebound, it is easily digested by profit-taking.

🔹 The discussion of interest rate hikes in Japan is about expectation management, not necessarily a real tightening of liquidity.

🔹 The current core of the market is: there is no lack of directional news, but a lack of certainty in direction.

🔹 The rhythm of funds has been repeatedly tested by the macro environment, with fluctuations being more common than one-sided movements.

In other words:

📈 If BTC / ETH continues to maintain a range of 3080–3120.

Then the market is waiting for the next real “fuel.”

And not driven by the current kind of “foreseeable news.”

📌 What we really need to look at is not the news headlines, but these indicators.

📌 Net inflow/outflow of BTC exchanges.

📌 Changes in the basis between futures and spot.

📌 Movement of major funds (institutions + patient bulls).

📌 Changes in stablecoin balances.

📌 Global macro fund preferences (US dollar index / 10-year US Treasury).

News is the fuel that stimulates emotions.

And these indicators are the “real drivers” for judging trends.

🧠 Today's core statement.

The market won't rise just because you shout good news.

Nor will it fall just because you panic.

What truly drives prices is the real willingness of funds to enter and stay in the market.#美联储降息 #加密市场反弹 #美联储FOMC会议 $BTC $ETH $XRP