The cryptocurrency market in the coming week is forecasted to have more than 309 million USD worth of tokens expected to be unlocked (token unlock) during the period of December 15–22, 2025.
What is token unlock and why do investors need to pay attention?
Token unlock is the process of releasing tokens that were previously locked according to the vesting schedule, usually for the development team, early investors, or the project's reserve fund. The purpose of locking tokens is to limit supply inflation during the early stages while also creating long-term development incentives for the project.
However, when the unlock time arrives, the amount of new tokens entering circulation can create short-term selling pressure, especially if holders decide to take profits. Historical data shows that large unlocks can cause token prices to drop by 5–15% in the short term, depending on the scale of the unlock and the general market conditions. However, not every unlock leads to a sell-off, especially for projects with high liquidity and strong communities.
Notable cliff unlock events this week
Next week will witness several cliff unlock events valued over 5 million USD, including many familiar projects in the market:
LayerZero $ZRO : Unlocking over 25 million tokens, accounting for a significant proportion of the issued supply, could attract attention due to the relatively large scale of the unlock.
ZROUSDTPerp1.431-1.95%Arbitrum (ARB): Nearly 96 million tokens are being released, although the ratio to circulating supply is not too high, it is still a factor to watch.
Sei Network (SEI), zkSync (ZK), Lista DAO (LISTA), and SPACE ID (ID) also have one-time unlock events, creating the potential for short-term volatility at the unlock time.
Cliff unlocks typically occur on specific days, easily creating a 'supply shock' if the selling volume spikes.
Linear unlock accounts for the majority of unlock value
In addition to cliff unlock, linear unlock accounts for a significant portion of the total value with over 226 million USD worth of tokens evenly distributed throughout the week. Some notable projects include:
Solana $SOL : Although the amount of unlocked tokens only accounts for a small proportion of the circulating supply, the USD value remains high due to large market capitalization.
Rainmaker (RAIN) and Worldcoin (WLD): Have significant unlock amounts, which may create continuous selling pressure over several days.
Dogecoin $DOGE and Avalanche (AVAX): Low unlock ratios but may still be affected by overall market sentiment.
DOGEUSDTPerp0.13157-3.70%TRUMP (political-themed meme coin): Highly volatile due to dependence on emotional factors and news.
Unlike cliff unlock, linear unlock creates gradual selling pressure, causing the market to be affected throughout the week instead of at a single moment.
Impact on the crypto market
Many experts believe that next week's unlock schedule could increase short-term volatility, especially in the context of the crypto market still being sensitive to macro factors such as monetary policy, regulatory changes, and Bitcoin price fluctuations.
Some past cases show that tokens like SOL or AVAX have experienced slight declines around the unlock time but later recovered as demand returned. Conversely, tokens with low liquidity or high speculative nature tend to experience stronger pressure.
What should investors pay attention to?
Token unlock does not equate to a long-term downtrend, but it is a risk factor that needs to be managed. Investors are advised to closely monitor indicators such as trading volume, token distribution levels, and price movements around the unlock time. Diversifying the portfolio, using risk management tools, and updating long-term vesting schedules from reputable sources can help mitigate the negative impacts of large unlock events.
