The price of Bitcoin is under pressure again. BTC is down about 4% in the last 24 hours and nearly 10% in the last 30 days, while selling pressure increases across the crypto market. As traders debate a possible bounce or a crash, a critical long-term level has now emerged that could determine how Bitcoin will close the year.
Both the analysis of the price structure and the cyclical one are converging in the same area. If Bitcoin fails to defend it before the end of the year, the risks of a downturn would increase dramatically.
A decisive price level for Bitcoin comes to the forefront
Currently, Bitcoin is trading close to the 2-year Simple Moving Average (2Y SMA), which is around $82,800. This level is not just a simple support. It is one of the most important long-term cyclical indicators of Bitcoin.
The 2Y SMA is calculated using daily closing prices, but it is interpreted on a monthly closing basis for cycle analysis. What matters is not the intraday price movement, but where Bitcoin closes the month.
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The last time the price of Bitcoin fell below this SMA line in mid-2022, it underwent an additional correction of 51% before attempting a recovery. This is why December 31 is so important.
When the monthly candle for December closes, the market sets a whole month's worth of data. That candle becomes the official signal used by analysts to assess whether Bitcoin is maintaining a long-term trend or entering a deeper structural weakness.
Historically, monthly closes below the 2Y SMA have signaled prolonged bearish phases. Monthly defenses or recoveries above this level have indicated the survival of the cycle. Once the month is closed, there may not be a second chance.
Analysts who follow long-term Bitcoin cycles have also identified this level as an important structural boundary. The key concept is simple: Bitcoin must remain above this zone until the end of the month to avoid generating a confirmed bearish signal.
Why this support is under pressure at this moment
The problem is not just technical. On-chain data shows increasing tension beneath the surface.
Long-term holders, meaning wallets that have held Bitcoin for more than 155 days, have increased their selling activity throughout December. According to the net position change data of long-term holders, net outflows rose from about 116,000 BTC at the beginning of the month to nearly 269,000 BTC by December 15.
This is an increase in selling pressure of over 130% in just two weeks.
They are not short-term traders. This group usually sells only during periods of strong conviction or to reduce risk. Their continued distribution weighs on the bearish front and makes it more difficult to defend key support levels.
When long-term holders sell during weakness, it further reduces the margin of error around critical price zones like the 2Y SMA.
The price levels of Bitcoin that define the bounce or the breakout
If Bitcoin fails to maintain itself in the area of $82,800–$81,100 until the end of December, the downside risks increase rapidly.
A confirmed breakout below this zone opens the way towards $73,300, about 15% less than the current level, defining the next bearish target area on the chart.
On the upside, Bitcoin must reclaim the $88,200 level to alleviate immediate pressure. A move above $94,500 would be necessary to restore a bullish structure and bring momentum back to the buyers.
Until then, Bitcoin remains trapped between long-term cyclical support and increasing selling pressure.
