- Short-term judgment: Today there is a high probability of fluctuating between 85000-89000 USD, with a high probability of slightly dipping near 85000; if it holds, a deep fall is difficult, but if it breaks, it will accelerate down to 81000-82400 USD.
- Conditions for triggering a deep fall: A daily closing price falling below 85000 + continuous net outflow from ETFs + a significant drop in US stocks resonating, could lead to 80000 USD or below, with a low probability in extreme situations.
- Small rebound opportunity: The RSI shows a bullish divergence, if it holds support or slightly rebounds to 89000-92000, but the probability of encountering resistance and falling back is high.
Suggestion: If it breaks below 85000, decisively reduce positions, using stop-loss operations is more prudent.
