Hedera had a brief rise after reaching a local bottom on December 19. Since then, the HBAR price has increased by approximately 11%. However, this movement does not change the overall picture. HBAR is still down nearly 50% over the last three months and has been weak in the past week.
The issue is not just about the price. A bigger problem is how the capital is moving. The price rose slightly, but the data shows that pressure is increasing beneath the surface. If an unexpected helper does not step in, this rise risks becoming a so-called bull trap.
The capital flow becomes weaker while the risk of a collapse increases.
The first warning is about capital flow.
Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) shows whether large investors are buying or selling by tracking price and volume. When CMF goes down, it means capital is sneaking out, even if the price seems to remain stable.
On the daily chart, HBAR's CMF is moving downwards and pressing against a falling trendline. This line has led to capital outflows for several weeks. The trendline connects lower bottoms in CMF, not price, making it more dangerous. It shows that large players are reducing their positions over time.
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If CMF breaks below the trendline, it would confirm a shift from weak inflows to clear outflows. This aligns with the pattern where HBAR's price is still within a falling channel. In that case, the recent rise of 11% is unlikely to continue.
Shorts and Bitcoin are the only possible saviors.
However, there is a possible counterforce.
Derivatives data shows a strong bias towards short positions. On Bitget, the total liquidation of short positions is nearly 9.9 million USD, compared to about 6 million USD in long positions. This means there are approximately 50% more shorts than longs around these levels.
This matters only if the price gets support from elsewhere.
The support can come from Bitcoin. Over the past seven days, HBAR's correlation with Bitcoin is close to 0.85. Correlation shows how closely two assets move together, where 1 means they move almost exactly alike.
If Bitcoin rises, HBAR's price may follow suit. Then short positions may be forced to close, creating a short squeeze instead of natural demand. However, without support from Bitcoin, the excess of short positions will not be enough.
HBAR price levels to watch
The HBAR price is now close to the lower trendline of the falling channel.
If HBAR drops below the area of 0.10 USD, the structure breaks down even further and long positions can be liquidated faster. Then the CMF signal is confirmed and the downward trend may increase further.
To sustain an upward movement, HBAR must receive support from Bitcoin and rise towards 0.13 USD. That level matches the upper part of the recent range and could trigger a wave of liquidations of short positions over the next 30 days.
Until then, the risk is greatest for continued decline.
Hedera's rise of 11% looks most like a dead cat bounce. This means a temporary recovery that quickly fails in a larger downward trend.
The capital flow is becoming weaker, the structure remains negative, and only a short squeeze driven by Bitcoin can counteract a larger crash. Without this, the downward pressure continues.
