Not only is buying pressure in the market weakening, but buying activity reflected in on-chain data is also slowing simultaneously.
One of the reasons I emphasized downside risk after August was the declining buy-volume divergence in the Binance futures market.
While price continued to rise, volume consistently declined—
a structure that closely resembles the 2021 cycle.
Importantly, this trend has yet to recover.
At the same time, the number of active addresses is slowing sharply.
Active address metrics can be closely linked to OTC activity on-chain, and this slowdown is a clear indication that overall market participation and vitality are fading.
A meaningful reversal should have occurred at least within the orange zone.
However, price action has instead followed a path similar to 2021.
From this perspective, the post-orange-zone advance can be interpreted as the final distribution phase.
The market will require time to recover.
Whether the traditional four-year cycle has broken remains uncertain,
but even if it has, that question is not particularly relevant in the current phase.
Written by Mignolet
