The Bitcoin market remains under pressure from negative institutional flows and the capitulation of short‑term holders. In this scenario, the indicator Bitcoin: Realized Cap – UTXO Age Bands (%) in the 12~18m cohort, according to data from CryptoQuant, marks the beginning of a new phase of accumulation, in which, at the end of downturn cycles, this group usually holds the largest share of the total Bitcoin in circulation.
CURRENT AND HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION DATA
◾ Current (2025) → UTXO 12~18m at 9.67% → start of accumulation, comparable to previous cycles, indicating that further BTC declines may still be expected.
◾ Historical (bottoms of previous cycles with the percentage of wallet accumulation):
• 2015 (April 25) → 44.78%
• 2019 (March 31) → 43.25%
• 2022 (June 19) → 30.36%
CONCLUSION
The UTXO 12~18m indicator shows that accumulation by this investor group is only just beginning, at levels far below those of previous cycles. This reinforces the outlook for the continuation of BTC’s decline, even if supported by structural signals coming from miners and major players.
Written by GugaOnChain
