Bitcoin appears to be in the later stage of its post–all-time-high correction. Sentiment remains in Extreme Fear territory, suggesting risk appetite is still fragile. While the sharp sell-off phase has likely passed, rebounds have lacked follow-through, consistent with demand fatigue rather than panic-driven capitulation.
This stands out against a record-breaking 2025 for the broader ETF market. Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to see inflows, yet price has not responded meaningfully. The Coinbase Premium Index remains negative, indicating that U.S.-based spot demand has weakened. The market looks less “heavily sold” and more “underbought,” with insufficient new buyers to absorb existing supply.
Regionally, selling pressure has been more visible during U.S./European sessions, while Asia has shown incremental dip-buying. However, the buying has not been strong enough to signal a clear regime shift. Whale inflows on major exchanges have also slowed, implying large investors are not accumulating aggressively.
On-chain, increased spending from 7–10 year old coins suggests some long-term holders are becoming active—a pattern that has often appeared near distribution phases or ahead of trend transitions, though it does not guarantee immediate selling.
At present, the base case is continued time-based consolidation with a mild bearish bias. However, a sustained rebound in the Coinbase Premium and clearer absorption by long-term capital would warrant revisiting this view.
Written by XWIN Research Japan
