Bitcoin's price fell below $92000 amid severe market fluctuations, with on-chain whales writing vastly different scripts with hundreds of millions of dollars in positions, revealing that market divergence has reached an extreme.
The cryptocurrency market experienced a sharp decline last night, with Bitcoin's price briefly dropping below $92000. Against this backdrop, several popular whales closely monitored by the on-chain data monitoring platform Coinbob have exhibited vastly different trading strategies.
On one hand, main long position holders like 'BTC OG insider whales' remain steadfast and show composure. On the other hand, short players like 'Altcoin Air Force Head' have begun to significantly close positions to take profits.
I. Market Fluctuation and Whale Ecology
● Recently, the cryptocurrency market has been highly volatile. The Bitcoin price has retreated from recent highs, briefly dropping below the key psychological price of $92,000, impacting overall market sentiment.
● Market analysis data shows that new whale holders (with UTXO holding times of less than 155 days) are facing significant pressure. This segment's controlled realized market value ratio has risen, but their average cost is around $98,000, with the overall unrealized loss reaching approximately $6 billion, making $85,000 a noteworthy risk point.
● In this market environment, tracking whale movements through on-chain address monitoring tools has become an important reference for many investors to judge market sentiment and potential directions. The large position adjustments of whales often provide deeper market signals than price fluctuations.
II. The steadfast long whales
In the turbulent market, a portion of major long positions has shown remarkable composure. The address known as 'BTC OG Insider Whale' is a typical representative.
● The overall holding size of this whale account is approximately $874 million. Although unrealized profits have narrowed from the peak to $8.1 million, no adjustment operations have been made. Its core holding is ETH long positions, sized approximately $713 million, at an average price of $3,161, and currently still has an unrealized profit of $5.5 million.
● In addition to ETH, this address also holds long positions in BTC and SOL. Currently, on the Hyperliquid trading platform, it is the largest long holder of both ETH and SOL. This posture of 'responding to changes by maintaining the status quo' indicates its continued confidence in the market.
Another notable long, 'CZ Opponent', finds itself in a more complicated situation.
● The overall unrealized loss of this account is $12 million, primarily due to the XRP long position, which has a position size of $75.6 million and an unrealized loss of $13.3 million.
● Despite this, its ETH long position still maintains an unrealized profit of $1.4 million, with an overall account holding size of approximately $264 million. It is noteworthy that it remains the largest long holder of XRP on Hyperliquid and the second largest long holder of ETH, demonstrating its determination to maintain a long position despite incurring losses.
III. Aggressive Shift to Shorts and Hedging Liquidation
● In stark contrast to the steadfast longs, a group of whales actively adjusting positions, even turning to shorts. According to AiCoin data, during a specific period on January 20, some on-chain whales frequently adjusted positions between long and short.
● A whale closed a long position of 242 BTC, resulting in a loss of $1.042 million, while the address marked as 'Lightning Counter' established complex hedging positions, going long on 99.8 BTC and shorting 6,355 ETH.
● More aggressive short positions come from the whale labeled '20 Million Swing Hunter', which shorted 8,383 XMR with 5x leverage, becoming the largest XMR short address on-chain.
● Another address, 'Strategy Opponent', quickly turned to shorts after closing BTC and ETH long positions (with a total loss of $324,000): it opened a 5x leveraged short on 73,000 DASH, becoming the largest DASH short on-chain, while also establishing a short position of 2,078.55 BTC with up to 20x leverage.
IV. Profit Locking in the Short Camp
In the short camp, some early players have begun to reap substantial profits and take partial profits. The address known as 'ZEC Largest Short' continues to close MON shorts to lock in profits.
● Its MON short position has decreased from a high of $1.4 million, but the unrealized profit remains as high as $560,000, with a return rate of 120%. The total short position of this address is approximately $166 million, maintaining the position of the largest on-chain ETH short.
● 'Altcoin Air Force Leader' is another successful executor of a short strategy. The overall unrealized profit of this account has expanded to $11.05 million, as it continuously closed PUMP and MET shorts during last night's market fluctuations.
● Currently, its PUMP short position has decreased to $4.7 million, with the total account short position approximately $48.1 million. Notably, this address maintains a targeted short layout in the Solana ecosystem, holding a PUMP short with 10x leverage and a MET short with 3x leverage, while also holding short positions in Meme coins like PEPE.
Despite suffering an unrealized loss of $1.74 million on LIT due to counter-trend shorting, its cumulative profit for the year has reached $8 million, demonstrating the effectiveness of the short strategy.
Major whale holdings overview:
V. The heavy losses and reflections of leveraged traders
During the market's violent fluctuations, high-leverage traders have faced immense pressure. The experience of the swing trader 'pension-usdt.eth' is particularly typical.
● After closing an ETH long position for a profit of $740,000 on January 16, this address quickly turned and opened a BTC long position with 3x leverage, at an average price of $95,614.5. As the Bitcoin price dropped below $92,000, this position, sized approximately $91.53 million, has incurred an unrealized loss of $4.07 million.
● This whale, known for short-term swing trading, has accumulated profits of over $21 million since October, with an average holding time of only 23 hours. However, this time, the timing of the shift from ETH to BTC seems to have been off, highlighting that even experienced traders face enormous risks in the face of leverage.
● This case also reflects a structural change in the current market: with the rise of on-chain trading platforms like Hyperliquid, more and more professional traders are shifting from traditional exchanges to these platforms, which are changing the market trading landscape due to offering higher leverage and on-chain execution advantages.
VI. Risk aversion sentiment spurs alternative allocations
Amid the intensified fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market, some funds have begun to seek traditional safe-haven assets. The address known as 'On-chain Gold Largest Long' is a representative of this trend.
● This address holds a long position in PAXG (on-chain gold) with 5x leverage, with a position size of about $7.02 million, currently having an unrealized profit of $400,000, yielding a return rate of 23%. Moreover, the trader's strategy is more comprehensive, holding multiple long positions in various on-chain stock targets, with a total related holding of approximately $18 million.
Another address, 'Heavily Bet on Precious Metals', has constructed a more systematic precious metal investment portfolio. Recently, this address established a long position with 5x leverage on SILVER (silver mapping contract), amounting to approximately $940,000.
● Combined with its original gold holdings, the total value of this address's holdings in precious metals is approximately $5.64 million, with an overall leverage of about 5.2 times, achieving an investment return rate of 68.15% and a monthly profit of $380,000. This operation of simultaneously going long on precious metals and US tech stocks reflects a comprehensive bullish strategy that profits regardless of whether the market trends toward risk aversion or risk appetite.
The sharp drop in the cryptocurrency market last night was like a prism, reflecting the starkly different faces of the whales. From the unwavering $874 million holdings of the 'BTC OG Insider Whale' to the decisive closure of shorts by the 'Altcoin Air Force Leader', locking in a profit of $11.05 million.
From 'pension-usdt.eth' facing an unrealized loss of $4.07 million due to 3x leverage, to the 'On-chain Gold Largest Long' comfortably achieving a 23% profit on PAXG. In the market fluctuations, some see risk, while others see opportunity, and the true 'inside story' may well be hidden in the positions written in real money by these whales.
