The ancient whale mentioned earlier, who has over 80,000 BTC and is gradually exchanging BTC for ETH, is now holding 120,000 Ethereum contracts, with a position value of 380 million;
This whale also has a pretty impressive operation as it took advantage of the drop on October 11, which has led to rumors that this whale has insider information or is the main force controlling the market;
However, based on past experiences, players holding such large positions typically do not end up making profits easily. For example, the previous insider who was very successful many times ended up getting liquidated. Unlike the high leverage of that insider, this ancient whale's leverage is not that high, as it chooses to gradually increase its position. Let's keep an eye on it;
A key week, summary of news over the past 48 hours;
http://1.CZ (the most optimistic faction): Throws out the theory of a 'super cycle', believing that the four-year cycle may end, and the future will enter a longer upward trajectory.
2. The White House (policy variable): Previews unreliable speech that will 'benefit the economy', interpreted by the market as a possible signal to release friendly risk assets.
3. Standard Chartered Bank (reality adjustment faction): Cuts BTC's target price for next year from 200,000 to 100,000; long-term target remains 500,000 but postponed to 2030. The reason is simple. Institutional demand is lower than expected, and ETF inflows are slowing.
In summary, the current state of Bitcoin: Some say 'this time is different', while others silently lower their expectations; the market is brewing a change amid divergence.
Several signals that can be confirmed at present:
Funds have not exited the market, just prefer to ambush altcoins.
On-chain activity has slightly warmed up, indicating that someone is quietly positioning.
Macroeconomic uncertainty is highly concentrated this Wednesday (Powell's speech).
Sentiment is at a low but has not worsened; it is a quiet accumulation period.
The direction choice of the market this week is not in the candlestick chart but in Powell's hands. If Powell strongly pushes for interest rate cuts, the market may instantly shift from 'holding back' to 'explosion mode', creating a resonance between sentiment and funds.
If there is significant internal resistance and no movement, the short-term will continue to oscillate sideways, using time to exchange for space. But regardless of the outcome, this week is an important node in the second half of the year's market, marking a typical moment where 'emotion is more critical than data'.
Do you think Powell will be hawkish or dovish this time? Feel free to discuss your judgment in the comments.
The reasons behind various companies promoting public ICOs. The chairman of the SEC stated that most public offerings in the crypto space should not be regarded as securities.
Last month, the SEC introduced a token classification system, categorizing network tokens, digital collectibles, and digital tools as non-securities, only securitized tokens are subject to SEC regulation.
Last night, when asked about this issue, the old man clearly stated that he would not care about most ICOs.
The matter of 'Blue War' serves as a reminder to everyone: when going out, be sure to be low-key, cautious, and prudent.
If you expose your whereabouts throughout, someone will keep an eye on you. No matter how low the probability, once it falls on an individual, it is a hundred percent disaster. In the cryptocurrency circle, this risk is even greater.
In October this year, Roman Novak, a cryptocurrency practitioner known for his extravagant lifestyle, and his wife Anna, were tortured and killed in Dubai by kidnappers after defrauding investors of about 500 million dollars through a false project. In June this year, a cryptocurrency trader/KOL was kidnapped in France, which also attracted CZ's attention, reminding everyone to pay attention to personal safety and not to casually disclose whereabouts.
It might be okay domestically, but once going abroad, unfamiliarity increases risk exponentially. I was once advised: when going abroad, it’s best to change your watch to keep a low profile, and not to become an 'easily obtainable fruit'.
Assets in the cryptocurrency circle are easy to trace; the higher the wealth and exposure, the closer the danger. When going abroad, do not announce where you are on social media at that moment, create a time difference; join some activity groups in advance, travel with familiar people, preferably not act alone, and try to avoid meeting strangers; when encountering strangers at events, especially without a middleman introduction, don’t foolishly say everything.
Most importantly: boast less, those who seek easy money are easier to be targeted, genuinely share your experiences of losing money, and ensure safety.
Looking back now, on the 21st, it was indeed the lowest point for $BTC recently. Hopefully the market this month will be as predicted by Teacher Banmu Xia.
Now on Ethereum, there is an interesting phenomenon where more and more decentralized exchanges (DEX) are having their trading volume not go through the public mempool, but instead sent directly to miners/builders through private channels to avoid being seen and exploited by others.
This also indicates that DEX is gradually maturing.
If using the public mempool, for example, clicking "swap" on a DEX, the user's trade is broadcasted to the Ethereum public mempool, which is a waiting area visible to everyone; at the same time, MEV seekers monitor the mempool in real-time, and if they see a large order from that user, they immediately front-run or perform a sandwich attack on the user. The user gets squeezed, causing discomfort and increased slippage.
MEV predators place a transaction before and after the user's trade, sandwiching the user's transaction in the middle. The first transaction buys the same token, driving up the price, the user's transaction executes in the middle, and they can only buy at the inflated price. Immediately after, the second transaction sells the previously bought token, pulling the price back down, thus profiting.
Mature DEXs often skip the public mempool; good wallets or aggregators default to using private RPCs (such as flashbots protect/eden network, etc.), so the user's trades are not broadcasted to the public mempool but are sent directly encrypted to professional block builders. After receiving private orders, builders try to refund a portion of the MEV profits, so they won’t be sandwich attacked. By 2025, large transactions on Ethereum in the public mempool have become increasingly rare.
So, what does this mean for ordinary users?
Using mature wallets/DEX + default RPC for exchanging tokens, generally, they won’t be sandwich attacked; slippage and gas fees are much lower than in the previous cycle, and they will receive a portion of MEV refunds; however, smaller transactions, such as those below 1000U, may still enter the public mempool, mainly due to the lower MEV profits.
Only one cycle has passed, and Ethereum's DEX has evolved from a public bidding environment where the highest gas wins the block and sandwich attacks are prevalent, to an era where more and more orders are going through private channels, with opportunities to reclaim rebates.
Bitcoin and Ethereum Strong Rebound! Is it catalyzed by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, or the beginning of a new historical high?
In the last 24 hours, a total of 96075 people have been liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $268 million! After the Bitcoin and Ethereum sell-off last night, they quickly rebounded. Currently, overseas buying is strong, and the ongoing premium on Coinbase has proven this point. Furthermore, along with the resolution of crises like MSTR, liquidity is recovering. Recently, CZ, BlackRock, Vanguard, and others have come out to shout their opinions, and everyone is optimistic about BTC's future trend. So hold onto BTC spot; we are not afraid at all.
BTC
Currently, Bitcoin is consolidating at a high level. BTC has formed a very standard triangular convergence pattern: slowing highs - rising lows - shrinking volume. This is a signal that a 'direction is about to be chosen,' and in the past, it often meant that the upcoming fluctuations would be larger than expected.
Dogecoin quietly builds a bullish pattern; will it face a breakout storm after narrow fluctuations?
The price trend of Dogecoin (DOGE) is entering a phase that traders often pay close attention to, which is a period of price tightening that usually signals a decisive trend is about to come. After several days of active trading, changes in ETF fund flows, and the rare convergence of technical indicators, the current market sentiment and structure of memecoins seem to be aligning. Discussions surrounding Dogecoin are shifting from short-term speculation to whether the asset is preparing for a larger breakthrough by the end of the year. In recent trading sessions, market activity has steadily increased, initially driven by an 8% rise in Dogecoin (DOGE) price to around $0.15. Meanwhile, trading volume surged by 242%, reflecting active participation from retail investors.
Alarm sounded! Shiba Inu coin shows a critical bearish signal, when will the bottom arrive?
Shiba Inu has shown new bearish signals, but this is precisely when the meme coin is desperately needing a price uptrend to eventually bottom out and rebound. On December 2, Shiba Inu coin issued a bearish signal, and recent price analysis confirmed this. Specifically, a death cross appeared on the 4-hour chart, with the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) crossing above the 23-period SMA, indicating that the trend of this coin is once again bearish.
More corrections about Shiba Inu? For most of this year, Shiba Inu stocks have been in a downward trend. Notably, since the beginning of the year, its stock price has dropped by 58%, down 73.6% from the peak of $0.00003343 in December 2024.
Is the SOL surge a pause for power or a peak? It all depends on this key resistance!
The price of Solana started a new round of increase above $135. Currently, the SOL price is consolidating above $142 and may further rise above $145. The SOL price against the US dollar has started a new round of increase, breaking through the $135 and $140 levels. The current price is above $140 and also above the 100-hour simple moving average. On the hourly chart of the SOL/USD currency pair, an ascending trend line is forming, with support at $143 (data source: Kraken). If the resistance level of $145 is broken, the currency pair may continue to rise.
Tron’s stablecoin market capitalization surpasses 80.2 billion USD, following Tether's issuance of 1 billion USDT on the network
During the recent market downturn, Tron performed the strongest, showcasing a rare resilience among mainstream altcoins. Since August, most large-cap cryptocurrencies have seen declines of 40% or more, while Tron’s drop was only 24%, nearly outperforming the entire altcoin sector. This relative advantage highlights the unique positioning of the Tron network and its ability to continuously attract stable demand despite the overall market weakness. A key factor behind this resilience is Tron’s increasingly dominant position in the stablecoin ecosystem. According to Tronscan data shared by Lookonchain, Tether has issued an additional 1 billion USDT on Tron, indicating Tether's confidence in Tron’s ability to handle large-scale stablecoin issuance. This issuance has pushed Tron’s stablecoin market capitalization over 80.2 billion USD, solidifying its status as the leading blockchain for USDT circulation.
Recently, the trading volume of the FIR project on the Binance Alpha platform has shown a significant growth trend. This project is centered around the integration of artificial intelligence and the music industry, creating an innovative ecosystem. Currently, several music works within the ecosystem have received a good market response, such as the song "Cheng Guang Zhu Meng" sung by Kay Tse, which has exceeded 100 million plays on the Tencent Music platform and ranks high on the charts, continuously generating considerable copyright revenue. The latest announcement from the project team indicates that, according to its development plan forecasts, the annual revenue based on music copyright is expected to reach over 30 million US dollars by 2026. At the same time, the platform plans to officially launch the "Copyright Pledge Pool" function at the end of December, at which point all liquidity providers of FIR-LP will be able to proportionally share 50% of the revenue distribution from this pool, which will be settled in USDT. Currently, the total market value of the FIR project is approximately 6 million US dollars and is still in the early stages of development. As trading volume increases and related positive news gradually materializes, there is potential for growth in its market value. Investors should cautiously monitor the project's progress in conjunction with their own risk tolerance, and be aware that digital asset investments carry high risk, with significant price volatility; rational judgment and cautious decision-making are recommended.
Ethereum Bulls Collapse: $6.4 Billion Bet Wiped Out Overnight, Market Goes into 'Reset Mode'!
The price of Ethereum has fallen below the $2800 mark after a sharp decline, exacerbating market panic and reinforcing expectations that bulls have lost control. The recent drop has prompted investors to shift into defensive mode, with some analysts even openly discussing the possibility of the bear market potentially widening further. Sell-off pressure in both the spot and derivatives markets has intensified, making it difficult for traders to find reliable support areas, and market volatility continues to rise. The latest CryptoQuant report released by Darkfost indicates that Ethereum's open interest on Binance has been plummeting for more than three consecutive months, with one particularly concerning development standing out. On August 22, the open interest for Ethereum reached a historic high of $12.6 billion, but it has now shrunk by half. Nearly $6.4 billion in derivative positions have disappeared, causing Ethereum's open interest to drop to $6.2 billion, a decline of up to 51%.
SOL Retreats to the 'Death Line'! The battle between bulls and bears is about to erupt, determining the direction of the next epic market trend!
After Solana's stock price broke below the $135 range, a new round of decline began. The current SOL price is consolidating below $130 and may further break below $125. The SOL price against the USD has started a new round of decline, breaking below $135 and $130. The current price is below $130 and the 100-hour simple moving average. On the SOL/USD hourly chart, a key descending trend line is forming, with resistance at $136 (data source: Kraken). If the bulls hold above $125 or $120, the price may start to rebound. Solana price continues to decline
The death cross on the ETH monthly chart has just formed in the past few days. In the trend over the next three months, it is possible that the movement will be consistent with that of February to April, experiencing a monthly five consecutive bearish trend. Because it cannot hold above the middle Bollinger band of the monthly chart (3050) and move towards the upper band (4400), the probability of moving towards the lower band is very high.