是静待花开

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Since the violent pump started on 4.12, today finally brings a real chance to close out those short positions trapped below 74000 and 2220. It's a relief, not a brag. Being stuck for 18 days, what else is there to boast about? Some are still trying to justify that their shorts were noble and correct. The market gives and takes, all part of the game. Even though April was mainly bullish, I kept stressing not to re-enter long positions above btc 77000 and eth 2360, and instead use the low long positions accumulated at the bottom to chase the highs. Just because you're going long doesn't mean you chase every bounce; a strong bullish indicator and a breakout of resistance are necessary to chase the pump, with a solid base to back it up for adding positions. If the resistance can't be broken, retreat to the next support level to re-enter, moving in and out smoothly, without stubbornly holding onto positions. This is the strategy for going long in a non-bullish market cycle.

Woke up this morning and posted about a bearish bias for today; the daily chart shows an increase in downward momentum, indicating a need for further dips. This is the real shorting opportunity, fitting into the right-side trading approach. A rational trader avoids being stubbornly bullish or bearish, sticking to the facts.

4.30 Market Hotspots Overview

From the pre-market intel, several sectors are showing potential catalysts.

We're currently in the thick of earnings season, with Q1 reports and annual statements dropping all at once, which means profit factors are gaining weight in pricing, and related companies are seeing increased attention.

In the lithium battery sector, battery-grade lithium carbonate prices have surged over 12% recently, which could pump some positive vibes into the sentiment surrounding the stocks in the supply chain.

Computing power, rare earth permanent magnets, PCBs, optical communications, sports industry, and robotics concepts are also being supported by industry dynamics or institutional expectations, but watch out for potential divergences within these sectors.

This is not investment advice; the market carries uncertainties, so make sure to trade cautiously.

In the year I entered the crypto scene, I lost a whole 200k in the game.

Half a year's savings, wiped out overnight.

At that moment, I really wanted to exit, my mindset completely shattered.

But I wasn’t ready to give up.

It wasn’t about the money, but deep down, I knew—I wasn’t incapable of making profits, I just lacked the strategy, the rhythm, and a winning system. $SIREN

Later, I took the remaining 2000U and got back on the rolling position train.

Unlike most, I didn’t rush in. Instead, I meticulously reviewed every losing trade I had made, going over them three times. I examined each trade, analyzed each transaction—figuring out exactly how I had failed.

Then, I set three survival rules for myself.

Only trade familiar mainstream coins, no meme coins.

Each trade must wait for: technicals + sentiment + volume, a triple resonance.

Have clear targets for each round, no greed, no holding on, no chasing trades.

First round: 2000 → 3400
Second round: 3400 → 5800
Third round: 5800 → 9600

By the eighth round, my account had soared to 42k U.

I decisively withdrew 30k, keeping those profits securely in hand.

I turned it into a 20x return.

I made back the 200k I had lost.

This process isn’t about any mystical strategy, nor is it about luck.

It’s just a reusable rolling position model—
When the market is strong, go hard;
When the market is chaotic, wait it out.

When you nail the rhythm, profits will roll in on their own.

Many people ask me: how to pick coins? How to enter? How to avoid getting shaken out?

I can only say—the final touch is the real skill. It can't be summed up in just a few words.

If your account has taken a significant hit and you still have a bit of capital left, don’t just give up.

I’ve put together this 'practical rolling position model' for my fellow traders.

It doesn’t guarantee profits.

What is a Benefactor

What is a Naysayer

1. A Benefactor is someone who brings you positive vibes.
A Benefactor isn't necessarily someone with a higher status or more wealth than you; rather, it's someone who guides you, clears your mind, and lends a hand when you need it.

2. A Naysayer is a stumbling block on your path.
In this restless society, hypocritical naysayers are often more frightening than real enemies.
Don't underestimate human nature, and don't overestimate people's hearts.

3. Benefactors are sincere; Naysayers are self-serving.
A Benefactor treats you well because they value loyalty and friendship; a Naysayer treats you well only if you can provide them with benefits.
When encountering a Benefactor, always be genuine and cherish them; when facing a Naysayer, be cautious and decisively steer clear.

4. In the future, stay close to Benefactors and far from Naysayers.
Approach Benefactors to gain positive energy, like a fish in water;
Stay away from Naysayers to avoid stumbling blocks and keep your path clear.

This cycle's best strategy for positioning

Big funds are steadily growing, continue to choose Bitcoin

With only 10,000 USDT
Swap out altcoin risks, aiming for high certainty and high volatility, choose MSTR

With only 1,000 USDT
Wait for Bitcoin to hit a new all-time high, play the hot MEME leaders

With only 10 USDT
Keep being a contract warrior

What do you all think of this funding growth path?

I suspect that many of you are out of funds to trade, and honestly, there's no doubt about it.
Instead, you spend all day hurling insults in my comments.

Trading is incredibly draining, both mentally and emotionally.

In the midst of long consolidations, opening positions repeatedly, hoping each time, only to be let down again and again, followed by stop losses...

Most folks can only handle 3 to 5 times before their spirits break, and they lose the will to keep trading.
The drive is gone.

That's why I say a market filled with excessive consolidation has no future.

If you're not opening positions, there's no way you can relate to my experience.

I need to find a way to filter out those with stakes ready to trade and weed out the clueless spectators.

High-Stakes Relationships

1. In the workplace, avoid getting too chummy with any one person or group; close relationships can lead to conflicts that escalate quickly, and issues between tight-knit colleagues can get serious.

2. Colleagues at work are unlikely to become your true friends since most people prioritize their interests over friendships.

3. Mastering your anger is a key sign of maturity. Even if you feel like throwing a punch in the next second, keep a smile on your face in the previous moment to lower their guard.

4. In group settings, say less and keep smiling. If you're not a big player, staying quiet is often the best way to express yourself. When you do speak, focus more on "How are you?" rather than "My stuff."

5. If you get roasted, mocked, or belittled at the table, the best response is to stand up and toast to the host. If the host is the one giving you a hard time, toast to them; if both the host and the main guest are coming at you, make an excuse to head to the restroom and don't come back.

6. When dealing with those who have helped you or are important, maintain a steady flow of contact—meaning don’t be overly frequent or eager, but at least reach out a couple of times a year for small gatherings.

7. Don’t casually say good or bad things about others in front of anyone; if you must comment, stick to the situation rather than the person.

8. If someone bullies you to the point of no return, learn to use the system to address them. Don't show your disdain; treat them with a level demeanor, and keep a record of their usual behavior. Key points: include but are not limited to arrival and departure times, attire, and conduct. If you observe enough issues—five or more—you can bring your notes to a higher-up. Often, this action is a necessary step to make the other person become more honest.

What kind of people can rise to the top effortlessly?

1. When the boss asks if you're busy. Don’t say: "I’m okay, not busy." Instead, say: "Boss, I’m currently drafting the project W review document (I'm caught up with xX right now, highlighting that I'm grinding hard). If you have something to discuss, please go ahead!" The key is to let them finish, then you can think about your response.

2. When work is stalled. Don't say: "Colleague xx isn’t cooperating." Instead, say: "Boss, I'm facing xx issue and need your support."

3. When the boss asks for your opinions. Don’t say: "No comments." Instead, say: "You’ve covered everything comprehensively, I have nothing to add. I’ll execute this and consult you if any issues arise."

4. When the tasks assigned by the boss exceed your capacity. Don’t say: "I can’t do it." Instead, say: "Thank you for your trust; while this task is challenging for me, I’ll strive to excel. If I hit a wall, I’ll seek your guidance."

5. When the boss expresses concern. Don’t say: "It’s nothing, not tough at all." Instead, say: "Thank you for your concern, I’ve learned a lot from this. If there are areas I’m falling short in, please guide me. It’s your strategic support that has helped me achieve today’s results; compared to you, our efforts are trivial."

6. When the boss says "Thank you." Don’t say: "You’re welcome." Instead, say: "It’s the least I could do. I appreciate you entrusting me with important tasks; I've learned a lot through this. If I have any shortcomings, please feel free to point them out anytime."

Seven Paths to Financial Freedom:

1. Having a crew helping you make gains, that’s called labor leverage.

2. Having a stash of cash working for you, that’s called capital leverage.

3. Having a solid set of knowledge aiding your profits, that’s called knowledge leverage. Honestly, there are only four timeless ways to rake in profits.

4. Earning from information arbitrage, I know what you don’t.

5. Profiting from cognitive arbitrage, I get it while you don’t.

6. Making money from execution arbitrage, we both know, you didn’t pull the trigger, I did.

7. Cashing in on competitive arbitrage, we both play the game, but I’m just playing it better than you.

This Monday and Tuesday (April 27-28), the Bank of Japan is holding a meeting, which is actually more worth watching than the Federal Reserve's meeting next week, but hardly anyone in the Chinese crypto circle is talking about it.

Here's the background: The BOJ's current policy rate is 0.75%, the highest since 1995. They didn't change anything at the March meeting, but with an 8:1 vote, Hajime Takata was the lone hawk wanting to hike it to 1%. The market initially expected a rate hike in April, but that expectation has completely vanished in the last two weeks; UBS even withdrew their forecast, and the CME shows the probability of a rate hike is almost zero.

Why the pivot? It’s all about that conflict in Iran. Oil prices surged 55%, and Japan's core CPI rebounded for the first time in five months, but the BOJ is stuck in a dilemma—raising rates might choke off the recovering economy, while not raising them would lead to further depreciation of the yen. The interest rate differential between Japan and the U.S. is 3 percentage points, and arbitrage trading is pushing USDJPY up sharply. Recently, Japan and the U.S. have been quietly coordinating to stabilize the forex market, which everyone knows but no one openly admits.

Japan is actually one of the few developed economies that can still hike rates. Citi's assessment is "hawkish stance maintained"—verbal hawkishness with no action, which essentially signals to the market that further hikes are on the table.

The most challenging aspect of the Japanese stock market over the past two years has been predicting the yen's movement. When the yen depreciates, Japanese stocks rise; when the yen appreciates, Japanese stocks fall—it's a double-edged sword. If next Tuesday's meeting surprises with a hawkish stance, the yen will likely spike short-term, and Japanese stocks might get hit hard. Conversely, if they maintain the status quo, arbitrage will continue to push USDJPY, and the Japanese stock market will keep its momentum. This is the meeting worth staying up for in the last week of April.

BSC shorting the second saint keywords, farming
➕
diversification

ETH shorting Musk keywords, farming
➕
diversification

Only SOL is the last safe haven, with real memes, not too many farmers

Yesterday I saw an ETH play, the DEV pulled the liquidity and bounced, a bunch of cool kids rushed in to buy, it went from zero to a hundred grand, totally blew my mind.

Right now, the whole market's looking bleak, and everyone's saying Crypto is done for.

Just wait for the next 100,000x moonshot like ORDI to come along, and it'll fix everything for you.

Back in the day, when you were trading those moonshots, playing with friendtech, flipping SOL inscriptions, and chasing AVAX with AVAV inscriptions, did any of that actually bring the new liquidity everyone's talking about?

Narratives come to explain the pumps; you need the pump first to create the narrative.

Once we break through the barriers, the big players will step in to debate the fundamentals.

Change your impulsiveness, and you are changing your destiny.

Impatience is a significant negative energy, and to some extent, it can even be considered a disease. Impatient people live like a string that is always taut, eager to see immediate results, striving for that perfect, one-shot success. However, when reality throws a few bumps in the road, they easily fall into a vortex of anxiety and self-doubt. This impatient state not only fails to accelerate growth but also disrupts the rhythm, leading to a series of mistakes. The ensuing negative emotions not only cloud their own judgment but also affect those around them.
At its core, impatience is a greedy desire to skip the process and directly seize the results, often wanting an ideal outcome. Yet, everything in nature follows its own rules; flowers bloom in spring, fruits ripen in autumn, and the sun rises and sets in a well-ordered cycle. This rhythm does not change due to human impatience. What we can do is observe it, adapt to it, and utilize it, but we cannot rush it. A calm person finds peace, and a slow approach leads to a holistic outcome. It's like trying to grip a handful of sand: the harder you squeeze, the faster it slips away; the more you try to control, the more likely you are to lose control.
As the ancients said, a peaceful heart can heal a thousand ailments, and a tranquil mind can comprehend all principles. You cannot catch the wind, nor hold the water firmly. Many things in this world are more easily lost when pressed too hard. This applies to people, matters, and wealth alike. Learn to take it slow; don’t rush small matters, and don't hurry big decisions. Build up steadily, be cautious from start to finish, let your heart settle, and let the pace slow down. Destiny will provide you with the answers you deserve at the right moment.

Those super massive stocks in the US stock market that crypto folks know about are continuing to break new highs, storing this crazy knowledge.

1. $BTC didn't follow the tech stocks but went down with the index instead, truly a historic move;

2. $ETH was hyped yesterday as a solid asset, but ended up dropping along with the big coin;

3. $SOL, just keep donating; if Ethereum isn't donating, you might as well get on the Solana train;

4. US sanctions are forcing Iran to take extreme measures to continue extracting oil;

5. Microsoft adjusts its OpenAI partnership agreement: no longer paying revenue shares to OpenAI;

6. Iranian Foreign Minister: The US has proposed talks with Iran;

7. CFTC sues New York State, vying for control over predictions market regulation;

8. Hut 8 issues investment-grade bonds to finance Google-affiliated data centers;

9. Tom Lee: ETH has acquired wartime store of value attributes, performing only second to crude oil after the US-Iran conflict;

I believed your nonsense;

10. a16z: Stablecoins are reshaping global financial infrastructure, speeding up the arrival of a new era of on-chain finance;

The biggest characteristic of this cycle is that the altcoin season is MIA.

I think there are a few reasons for this:

1. The funding structure has changed.
This time, BTC has mainly been pushed up by ETF institutional funds. BlackRock is buying BTC, not AVAX. Institutional money won't rotate into altcoins; historically, altcoin seasons have been a retail relay game, and now there are fewer retail traders.

2. Altcoin supply is exploding.
The speed at which new coins are launching in 2024-2025 is ten times greater than before. http://Pump.fun is releasing thousands of coins a day, and attention is diluted to the extreme, with not enough incremental capital to support a "full-blown altcoin season."

3. BTC.D isn't systematically declining.
BTC dominance has been hovering above 60% this round. The last altcoin season happened when BTC.D dropped to 45-50%.

4. The narrative is fragmented.
In the past, ETH would lead one wave, SOL another, with a main storyline. This time, AI, RWA, Meme, and DePIN are all doing their own thing; funds are scattered, and each track has a moment but doesn't sustain.

The cruelest part of this round isn't the drop

but rather:

You missed the pump
You went heavy on the dump
If you hit both

Then it's not a market issue
It's time to seriously rethink your strategy.

In the past two months, HTX has surged by 18%.
When compared to mainstream platform tokens, this performance isn't too shabby.

I checked out some recent data,
I prefer to see this price action as a value correction.

The reasons are straightforward:

• Total users have surpassed 59 million
• In Q1, nearly $20 million worth of HTX was just burned
• The trading activity on the platform is on the rise too

With platform tokens,
what you dread the most is a lack of change from the platform itself.
HTX's current trajectory shows that users are still increasing, trading is still active, and deflation is ongoing.

So, I don't really view this spike as a mere emotional pump.
It feels more like the market is starting to revalue HTX.

Li Ka-shing once said: "Even if the poor earn three to five million, they are still poor. They will upgrade to a bigger house, a better car, and end up with loans, making a return to poverty just a matter of time.

Wealth freedom isn't just about earning money you can't spend; it's about no longer relying on labor to make money. When passive income covers your expenses, that's what we call wealth freedom."

In 2009, casually picked up 1000 bitcoins.
In 2011, casually posted on Weibo and became an early million-follower influencer.
In 2012, updated my public account with random thoughts, reaping traffic and ad revenue.
In 2015, took a chill approach to micro-business and became the distributor for facial masks.
In 2016, casually shot videos and jumped into the ranks of TikTok's top influencers with millions of followers.
In 2017, made a small investment and acquired 10,000 BNB.
In 2018, went against the trend and put my entire portfolio into Pinduoduo's US stock.
In 2019, took over a mask factory on the brink of bankruptcy.
In 2020, during the US stock market crash, I bottom-fished Tesla at low prices.
In 2022, went against the trend and heavily invested in Nvidia and Google.
In 2024, casually stockpiled high-end memory, strategically positioning for market trends.
In 2025, accidentally went short, avoiding a chain liquidation crisis.
In 2026, ________