БИТКОИН

#биткоин 90 thousand on the brink of disaster! Unrealized losses are rapidly increasing, long-term holders are selling off, #etf capital is leaving, demand on the chain has completely collapsed, the last blow before the FOMC will soon be dealt, is 80 thousand really coming?🔥Bitcoin is still stuck in a weak range, the upper limit is 102.7 thousand dollars - short-term value for holders, the lower limit is 81.3 thousand dollars - the real average market price, the price is barely holding above the average, but is already on the brink of falling! On-chain data is bloody: unrealized losses continue to grow, realized losses have sharply increased, long-term holders are massively taking profits, selling pressure is like an avalanche! The key threshold has not been restored — 95 thousand dollars, 0.75 percent value level, and 102.7 thousand short-term value for holders are completely lost, reflecting simultaneous sell-offs by both high-profile buyers and new and old investors! Demand has completely weakened: #etf capital is continuously leaving, liquidity in the spot market is pitiful, strangely enough, confidence in speculation on the futures market has collapsed, the price is sensitive to any macroeconomic changes, like a frightened bird! The options market is even more terrifying: traders are madly buying short-term implied volatility (IV), the need for downside protection is enormous, the volatility curve at the short end is extremely cautious, and at the long end is barely balanced! With the last FOMC meeting of the year approaching, implied volatility at the end of December will gradually decrease, the market direction fully depends on when sellers will stop — if liquidity does not improve, the downward pressure caused by time will directly hit Bitcoin to the real average of 80 thousand!#BTC

If you read the comments under crypto articles, you can notice one pattern. Regardless of the market, prices, and news, the same question always arises:
«Smart money has already exited? »
Sometimes it sounds different:
— «Didn't the institutions sell everything at the top? »
— «Who is actually buying now? »

Liquidity shows more than any forecasts
Every time the market weakens, one question arises: where will the final bottom of BTC be? Many refer to round levels — 60k, 55k, 50k. But the market does not focus on nice numbers. It focuses on liquidity — on where the largest clusters of liquidations and stops are located.

About why the cycle is not yet ripe for a bull market

Every year the market waits: 'Now the growth will begin.' But again and again the impulses break too soon. Many pin their hopes on the year 2025 — the period after the halving. However, macro signals indicate that the conditions for growth will only mature closer to the year 2026.

Why America is growing, but crypto is not

Outside the USA, it looks like a perfect economy: the stock market is at its peaks, tech giants are showing record profits, and unemployment is at a minimum. But beneath the shiny surface lies a second level — weak, overloaded, and under systemic pressure. This is what has caused Bitcoin to be unable to start a bullish cycle.

A brief explanation of the large market junction

It seems that the American stock market is once again storming to new heights: the S&P 500 is at historical highs, the NASDAQ is a couple of percent from its peak, and gold and silver are hitting records. But what about Bitcoin? Instead of growth, there's heavy stagnation, slow pullbacks, and broken impulses. The main question arises: why has crypto stopped responding to the rallies of global markets, even though it used to follow them almost mirror-like?

How a single macro indicator crushes the appetite for risk
Every month, the crypto market tries to revive, but any local impulse quickly fades. Bitcoin is stuck in a weak sideways trend, altcoins look even worse. What is the reason? Often it hides in a single indicator - PMI, which many investors underestimate.

The effect that stopped working
Every cycle we hear the same thing: 'When the Fed starts lowering the rate — the rally will begin.' But today this mechanism is broken. The Fed's statements have become softer, the market is waiting for a rate cut — and crypto seems to ignore this and continues to weaken. Why?
Because the rate is not the source of the problem. The main brake is the poor condition of the real sector and the decline in activity. If the PMI is in the negative, if businesses are cutting orders, if consumers are spending less — lowering the rate does not save the situation. Companies will not take loans just because they have become a little cheaper.

Every cycle brings the same question: when will all this finally unfold?
Analysts draw arrows up, influencers promise "the bull run is just around the corner".
but the market again and again shows — the cycle lives by its own laws.

And to understand when the bear market will end, you need to stop waiting for dates.

Each cycle of the crypto market is different from the previous one — but the current one has become particularly strange.
Fundamental projects are growing slowly, research is of no interest to anyone, and liquidity is not going where it logically should.
Why is this happening?

## 🔥 1. The market has become 'narrative-first'

Many people currently think that "the bull run is about to start" — the charts are rising, there's hype again in the feed, everyone is waiting for "just a little more and to the moon."
But if you remove the emotions and look at the market systematically, the picture is different: we are still in a bear phase, just locally there are some rebounds.
Let's break it down point by point.

A strange but logical connection. Why are they interrelated?

When the world froze in 2020 due to the pandemic, something began to move very quickly:

📉 The world went into lockdown — a sedentary lifestyle has become the new norm. Millions of people are locked at home, with access to the internet and… a huge amount of free time.