Yi Hai Lun Bi writes every analysis article with a responsible, focused, and sincere attitude, with distinct features, not pretentious or exaggerated!
Daily market analysis, I am digital currency analyst Yi Hai Lun Bi!
This week's battle results are not eye-catching in the current market, but overall it is relatively considerable. Although it is not as spectacular as a bull market, it is clear that everyone prefers to steadily take profits now. There have been many new friends recently, so responses to everyone have been relatively slow. I would like to take this weekend to share some thoughts. There is a rather painful topic: for most new friends, the first and last thing they do each day might be to check their phones for the price of their altcoins. Why aren’t they rising? They are always given hope only to face deeper despair. The tax station has arrived; they are reluctant to cut losses, and not cutting losses is also uncomfortable, trapped in this endless cycle. They hope for divine intervention to rescue them. Regarding this, I want to share Old Yi's attitude. Friends familiar with Old Yi know that regardless of whether in articles or daily life, the topics of discussion are always BTC and ETH, making up almost 99% of the content. There is very little time spent discussing altcoins with everyone. Even if there is, it is due to friends around me experiencing problems collectively in the altcoin market, being manipulated by capital. This is not what Old Yi wants to see, and many times I tell new friends that when the inner belief is strong, no one can dissuade you.
Old Yi has asked many new friends about their reasons for choosing altcoins or how they got into altcoins. Another question is, why did they enter the cryptocurrency space, and what is the result now? I wonder if everyone has truly reflected on their psychological journey and past strategies when Old Yi asked this. To answer the first question, the common answer is that many people in the market say this altcoin has potential, and the chances of a hundredfold return are high. What if it’s true? In fact, once people adopt this mindset and take subsequent actions, the final outcome is determined. Of course, this doesn’t mean that all altcoins are like this; everyone can compare for themselves. Let's revisit this with everyone’s responses as an example. First of all, the project parties, or the issuers of coins, are inherently oppositional to us. This must be clear; as long as we make money, they will lose money. Once this logic is understood, when the market is speculating on the project party's coin, the issuer will consider that the price is already relatively high. If some retail investors flee early, they won't profit, or if they see that retail investors entering at high positions meet the issuer's psychological expectations, the issuer will start to gradually sell off their holdings. This means that even while the market is still rising, the issuer has already begun to sell in batches by doing T trading, continuing this cycle until everyone is still rushing in, treating the current trend as a normal correction, waiting for the next rebound, while facing the reality of getting deeper into a hole.
I previously discussed in an article that issuers do not sell at the peak but start selling during the price rise. This process is known as T trading, similar to a mountain climb where many big players share a common trait: never reach the summit. Once you reach the top, every step forward is downhill. By the time retail investors enter the market, the issuer’s cost may have already broken even, and what remains is profit. Everyone has experienced what it feels like to play with profits, while the initiative remains in the hands of the issuer, leaving only one road for everyone to walk. Another part is that they came into contact with altcoins through friends, but then Old Yi asked, did you lose money? Regarding this friend, Old Yi’s summary is: they did not make much profit and are also losing, not from a financial background, often discussing with friends, gambling mentality! The result faced: collective losses, approaching this market with a high speculative mindset is akin to a drinking party, where the market provides the venue, and the issuer smiles warmly as they lead you to the table. Everyone willingly raises their cups to toast the issuer, saying cheers to start. Although it is quite ironic, this is what Old Yi has observed.
When everyone enters the cryptocurrency space, they do so with the original intention of making money. However, along the way, it becomes difficult to see the harsh realities. Old Yi truly cannot spend a lot of time explaining this to every new friend, so I will take the form of an article to share what I have experienced and observed. This world is filled with competition everywhere, between people, between goods, in markets, and between coins. The market operates under the same principle of survival of the fittest. If you are strong enough, you can remain at the top, being the boss, while other smaller players must offer something to please you, but at the same time, they can also gain what they want from the strong. In the cryptocurrency world, the boss is BTC. All the coins you can see now are just a string of encrypted codes, and the pioneer is BTC, which utilized this string of codes. All subsequent coins are adaptations and optimizations based on this code, using the boss’s resources to gain their desired benefits. Currently, it is clear that no coin can replace BTC. This reflects Old Yi's concept of value investing. Everyone should compare the altcoins they hold and question whether they can compete with BTC. What are the advantages? If the advantages are evident, why is their price so much lower than BTC?
Today's topic is a bit heavy, but I hope it can serve as a wake-up call for new friends entering the cryptocurrency space. To summarize, the issuers are always on the opposite side of retail investors; their existence is to harvest from retail investors and profit from it, legally and reasonably putting your resources into their pockets. The price increase is part of the issuer's T trading process. In the cryptocurrency world, a person's success is not determined by getting rich overnight, but by who can last longer. In the process, everyone will make mistakes. The most important thing is to organize one's issues during the review process, to be able to walk more steadily in the next phase. The issuer merely exploits the cognitive and informational gaps, taking advantage of the speculative psychology of retail investors, creating hotspots and hype, but the ultimate goal must be clear to everyone. Old Yi has mentioned the topic of altcoins many times. For new friends who come to Old Yi, I aim to help in the form of advice, but the final decision-making power lies in your hands. However, opportunities are limited and only come once. You should first persuade yourself regarding your obsession with altcoins. Currently, BTC's market has diverged from the US stock market. If the trend continues, it will mean a new definition of BTC's hedging properties. Whether long or short term, compared to other markets, we see a more evident trend. Friends who are stuck or feeling lost can communicate with Old Yi at any time. The winds may be strong, but the sails are set to navigate the vast sea!
Yi Hai Lun Bi: The success of investment depends not only on choosing good targets but also on when to buy and sell. Preserving capital and optimizing asset allocation is crucial for a steady journey in the ocean of investments. Life is like a long river flowing into the sea; the determining factor of victory or defeat is never about the gains and losses of a single pass or a moment, but rather the grand accumulation of many rivers!
This article is just personal opinion and does not constitute any buying or selling advice. The cryptocurrency space has risks; investment should be approached with caution!