区块链易海

Yi Hai Lun Bi writes each analysis article with a responsible, focused, and sincere attitude, with distinct characteristics, not pretentious or exaggerated!

Daily market interpretation, I am digital currency analyst Yi Hai Lun Bi!
Recently, due to having a large number of users on hand and traveling around the country, article updates will be somewhat delayed. Reflecting on the rhythm of the previous text, let’s take another look at the current market. The trend still continues. Lao Yi has received various messages from new friends who have been caught in short positions. Speculative psychology seems to always yield returns that are contrary to expectations. Looking at the current market, BTC seems to be slightly hindered on its upward path, with the tug-of-war between bulls and bears becoming increasingly obvious. Fortunately, it managed to hold temporarily at $91,500. Recently, BTC has climbed to a high of $95,758, but the risk has not completely dissipated. The CME gap below has still not been fully filled, but it is clear that the time taken to fill this gap has been significantly extended, which also increases the market's further judgment. Even though the trend is clear, there is still a certain amount of risk in the short term. At the same time, BTC is about to close its weekly line. Previously, the 50-week moving average was briefly lost, and at that time market sentiment was extremely pessimistic, with discussions of a bear market widespread. However, within less than three weeks, the fear and greed index has returned to the greed zone, but it seems still insufficient. Although BTC has returned to $95,000, the market remains very quiet, similar to the situation a few months ago.

Yi Hai Lun Bi writes each analysis article with a responsible, focused, and sincere attitude, characterized by distinctiveness, authenticity, and no exaggeration!
Daily market interpretation, I am digital currency analyst Yi Hai Lun Bi!
As of now, BTC has risen 13% in the second quarter, relatively speaking, the rebound of the three major U.S. stock indices has been limited. When facing MA200, we did not see an effective breakthrough, which is also due to the market's expectation that our trade negotiations with the U.S. have further eased, maintaining a relatively optimistic sentiment on the emotional front. Trump's attitude has also changed; previously, he repeatedly threatened to oust Powell, but recently he has clearly stated that there is no actual intention to dismiss him and mentioned that he would consider lowering tariffs on us, which has eased market concerns. However, due to Trump's unpredictable style, market sentiment remains relatively conservative. At least the major U.S. stock indices have not shown a more positive trend, while BTC has not only broken through MA200 but has also successfully surpassed the average price line of short-term holders. In this regard, BTC's attributes as an alternative asset seem to be more prominent.

Yi Hai Lun Bi writes every analysis article with a responsible, focused, and sincere attitude, with prominent characteristics, not pretentious or exaggerated!
Daily market interpretation, I am digital currency analyst Yi Hai Lun Bi!
The market is in a festive mood again. BTC's price trend this week has shown a significant contrast with the US stock market. While the US stock market continues to decline due to tariff issues, BTC's price has risen against the trend during this period, reaching a short-term high of $93,888. The global M2 money supply expansion is gradually reflecting in BTC's price. Currently, it seems that BTC reaching a new high is not a difficult task, but this process will not be a straight upward trend, and everyone still needs to be alert to risks. Due to large price fluctuations, a new CME gap has formed again, starting at around $91,700. BTC has a demand to fill this gap downwards; short-term fluctuations are the norm in the market, and the US stock market also saw some gains yesterday. The previous decline in the US stock market mainly stemmed from the negative economic effects brought about by the continued fermentation of tariff issues, and the risk of an economic recession in the US continues to rise, with related negative news frequently appearing. Market concerns about the US economy are not only due to the risk of negative GDP growth but also focus on the yield of 10-year US Treasuries, which has been maintained at a high level recently, reaching close to the sensitive warning line of 4.5% set by Trump. This indicates that the attractiveness of US Treasuries is decreasing, and investor purchasing willingness is weakening, with the US dollar index also continuing to decline, recently hitting a new three-year low.

Yihai Lunbi writes each analysis article with a responsible, focused, and sincere attitude, characterized by distinct features, without pretentiousness or exaggeration!
Daily market interpretation, I am cryptocurrency analyst Yihai Lunbi!
BTC surged from $84,500 to $87,500 yesterday morning, and later in the evening saw further increases, testing the MA200 again in a spike form. However, the performance of U.S. stocks was not good yesterday, with all three major indices closing in the red, and BTC fell back to $86,400, currently rebounding to $88,500. However, it must be said that this wave of BTC's rise yesterday also saw a significant increase in open contracts, indicating that market attention is rising. On the other hand, this rise seems somewhat unsustainable, but the cryptocurrency platforms in the U.S. have recently seen a significant positive premium. Some friends may say that Old Yi's predictions are quite accurate, but from my perspective, some market trends are foreseeable from a trend standpoint, not predictions. Everyone can recall that Old Yi reminded everyone there would be a relatively positive trend since last week. From the battle situation, considerable returns have also been achieved. Although I didn’t capture yesterday’s further rise, the short positions from the spike and drop were once again securely taken in. The continuous washout by big players, the obvious trend, and the assessment of risk avoidance make it hard to miss opportunities for steady progress in this market. Friends who have joined this wave have also perfectly concluded their trades, although some new friends chose to retreat halfway, the overall returns are still quite good.

Yi Hai Lun Bi writes each analysis article with responsibility, focus, and sincerity. The style is distinct, not pretentious or exaggerated!
Daily market analysis, I am the cryptocurrency analyst Yi Hai Lun Bi!
Is there a new wave of euphoria for BTC? Old Yi has already informed and positioned himself. Trends will never stray too far from the market. The market pricing by CME shows an 89% probability that the Fed will not cut rates in May, essentially announcing that the market can forget about it for now. However, June seems to be a month to look forward to, with expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut rising to 63.2%. The market's implication is clear, suggesting that Powell should take action in June. Meanwhile, the predictions about whether the U.S. will enter a recession have shifted from 44% in mid-April to 56%, indicating growing concerns. With businesses not investing, employment not reaching new highs, and consumption beginning to weaken, the entire market is quietly pricing in the possibility of economic issues. As for the cryptocurrency market, current interest rates are still high, which is certainly not very friendly for BTC in the short term. However, if the rate cut occurs as expected in June, once market liquidity increases, BTC may have a chance to turn the tide. Not to mention, simultaneous rate cuts and recession would provide a dual boost for the cryptocurrency market in terms of safe-haven narratives and lessons from the Fed. In simple terms, do not act impulsively before May; the market is likely to remain in a period of continued volatility. But once the direction changes in June, it could mark a new starting point for a rebound for BTC. Avoid chasing highs and cutting lows, and keep observing the macro rhythm, especially the interest rate meeting in June, which Old Yi will monitor in real-time.

Yihai writes each analysis article with a responsible, focused, and sincere attitude, featuring distinct characteristics, without being pretentious or exaggerated!
Daily market interpretation, I am cryptocurrency analyst Yihai!
The market is currently moving in the direction of the article's development. BTC has not yet broken out of the 82,500 to 86,500 USD range; bulls and bears are still competing for dominance. Many friends are overly anxious during this period, but looking at the results, opportunities often favor those who are prepared. According to data, in March, the global search popularity for BTC reached 34, an increase of 26% compared to February, finally ending the decline since November 2024. Even ETH has seen a recovery, with its popularity rising to the highest level this year, reaching a score of 19. The market's attention is gradually warming up. Although the current popularity is still far from the peak levels of the previous bull market, it can be seen as a signal of a stop in the decline and a rebound. Looking at the ratio of BTC to the S&P 500, it is also rising. Whether institutions or retail investors, everyone seems to have renewed their positive impression of BTC as a hedge and reserve. Overall, while the market has not yet truly entered a heated phase, the rebound in search volume, rising narratives, and the macro background's push may be the prelude to the next wave of market movements. Next, we need to continue watching whether the US will ignite the market again with its comprehensive crypto strategy. As of now, the market this week seems to have moved but also seems not to have understood; the overall increase is around 0.3%. Friends can recall that Yihai had already reminded everyone at the opening on Monday that the big players would start cleaning the market, seizing this opportunity to act alongside them.

Yihai Lunzi writes each analysis article with a responsible, focused, and sincere attitude, featuring distinct characteristics without being pretentious or exaggerated!
Daily market interpretation, I am cryptocurrency analyst Yihai Lunzi!
Once again, it’s the weekend. BTC is maintaining slight fluctuations as expected. The second extreme has passed for more than two weeks, and BTC has only risen by 2%, slightly recovering some of the losses from the first quarter. Meanwhile, ETH remains weak, continuing to see a 13% decline in the second quarter. Excluding the bear markets of 2018 and 2022, if a decline is observed in the first quarter, the second quarter usually ends with an increase. Currently, the market lacks retail investors' participation and needs a new round of catalysts. BTC's realized market cap has refreshed its historical high, surpassing $872 billion, indicating that the entire market has continuously absorbed a large amount of funds over the past few months. However, despite the realized market cap hitting a new high, the monthly growth rate has decreased to 0.9%. Although there is still net capital inflow, the pace of market increment has clearly slowed down, and investor risk appetite is becoming more conservative. This means we are currently in a net absorption cycle, but new capital inflows are gradually decreasing. This state can be viewed as the market entering the initial stage of risk aversion, which also aligns with BTC’s sideways movement. Looking back at the previous two bull markets, the significant expansion of realized market cap coincided with BTC's rise. During that time, market sentiment soared rapidly, with new funds continuously flowing in, pushing prices and realized market cap up in sync. After the small bull peak in the first half of 2024, although BTC continues to maintain high-level fluctuations, the willingness of new capital to enter has started to weaken, and the current phase is also similar.

Yi Hai Lun Bi writes every analysis article with a responsible, focused and sincere attitude, with distinctive features, without being artificial or exaggerated!
Daily market analysis, I am digital currency analyst Yi Hai Lun Bi!
Follow the trend, even if there are certain obstacles at present, as long as the position is properly controlled, there will be light sooner or later. Friends who attacked the bulls yesterday once again ended perfectly. At present, it is still fighting at the key position of $85,000. The pin after Powell's speech on the hourly chart is now almost completely filled, and it has returned to the starting point again, and it seems that there are certain signs of recovery. According to data, since the United States announced a new round of tariff strategies, BTC has fallen by 16.7% in total. Although it has rebounded from the lowest point of 26.7%, the overall performance is still behind most traditional assets. In the same period, gold rose by 12.9%, and Nasdaq fell by 17.5%. BTC is currently in a rise between the two, but it does not have a clear safe-haven attribute. Powell's remarks yesterday tended to be hawkish. He believed that the market's expectations for the Fed's rescue were too high. This not only hit market sentiment, causing U.S. stocks and cryptocurrency circles to fall, but also the expectation of a rate cut in June seemed to be affected. The probability of no rate cut rose to 38%. The Fed's previous dot plot showed that there would be two rate cuts this year, and the market had more optimistic expectations for rate cuts.

Yi Hai Lun Bi writes each analysis article with a responsible, focused, and sincere attitude, with distinctive characteristics, not pretentious or exaggerated!
Daily market interpretation, I am digital currency analyst Yi Hai Lun Bi!
Following Powell's wave of hawkishness, last night was a great victory. First, let's look at what has happened recently. In March, US retail sales increased by 1.4% month-on-month, the largest month-on-month increase since January 2023. This data, like last week's inflation data, did not have much impact on the market. After all, American consumers are actively shopping to cope with tariff threats, and auto sales recorded the largest growth in two years. Short-term panic buying behavior drove retail sales to soar. The key point is Powell's speech at 1:30 AM today poured cold water on the risk market, clearly stating that the current inflation pressure facing the US economy is not just a short-term reaction caused by one-time events but may become more persistent due to structural factors like tariff trade strategies. He specifically mentioned that the inflation shock caused by tariffs has exceeded the Fed's previous expectations. In Powell's eyes, suppressing inflation remains the primary task, which is actually a counter-guide to market rate cut expectations. More importantly, Powell stated that although the market will continue to fluctuate, it does not mean that the Fed will step in to save the market. As soon as he finished speaking, US stocks and the crypto market both fell, while gold prices hit new highs again.

Yi Hai Lun Coin writes each analysis article with a responsible, focused, and sincere attitude, with distinct characteristics; it is neither pretentious nor exaggerated!
Daily market interpretation, I am digital currency analyst Yi Hai Lun Coin!
The key events that need attention right now have been listed. The U.S. retail sales data will be announced at 8:30 PM tonight, and Powell will speak at 1:30 AM tomorrow. The market expects to see some volatility again. Recently, BTC has seen a trend breakthrough, reaching a peak of $86,443. The CME gap formed on April 3 has also been completely filled in the past two days, but BTC fell back to $83,500 after the U.S. stock market opened. There is some support strength in the $81,300 to $83,500 range. During the recent slow upward process, there are quite a few trading chips at $84,500. BTC has been trading above the 4-hour MA200 in the past few days. If it falls below $83,500, this attempt to break through may end in failure. However, from the daily chart, a more ideal trend seems to have emerged, breaking the continuous downward trend since the beginning of the year. It's just that it still remains below the 200-day moving average, and there have been a lot of shorts seen at $87,000. The recent surge did not lead to large-scale short liquidations; instead, BTC bulls have endured more pressure. Although yesterday's offensive strategy only gained a small portion of chips in the end, overall, it still maintains relatively good stability.

Lao Yi's View on Coins writes each analysis article with a responsible, focused, and sincere attitude, characterized by clarity, authenticity, and no exaggeration!
Daily market interpretation, I am digital currency analyst Lao Yi's View on Coins!
The recent performance of the BTC spot ETF has indeed been unsatisfactory. Over the past eight trading days counting back from the 14th, there has been a net outflow of funds totaling $1.2 billion, with the main withdrawal forces being IBIT, FBTC, and GBTC. On April 8, IBIT alone withdrew $253 million. Although BTC prices have seen a slight rebound recently, major institutions have not taken aggressive positions, and traditional funds remain in a wait-and-see posture. Therefore, the future direction of the Federal Reserve's interest rates is still not very clear, and regulators have not made it clear who wants to take on the role of the buyer at this time. Bottom-fishing seems to still be suppressed by observation. Overall, however, we are very close to the bottom of the market now. Taking a small portion of positions to attack is not a big problem. To put it simply, the ETF is a funding channel between traditional finance and the crypto world, but currently, this channel is not very smooth. Firstly, there are no new strategies, and the market lacks new breakout points. According to Wall Street institutions, this wave of decline may continue to probe lower, but Lao Yi still firmly believes that BTC's rebound is just a matter of time.

Yi Hailun Coin writes every analysis article with a responsible, focused, and sincere attitude, characterized by clarity, authenticity, and modesty!
Daily market interpretation, I am digital currency analyst Yi Hailun Coin!
Last week, the global financial market was not peaceful. Under Trump's erratic maneuvers, a trust crisis is also fermenting and spreading. After announcing the formal implementation of reciprocal tariffs, Trump suddenly made a 180-degree turnaround, postponing the imposition of high tariffs on 75 regions for 90 days. Prior to this, Trump's stance was absolutely not to consider suspending tariffs; even the White House specifically stepped in to debunk rumors that the previous 90-day suspension was a rumor. However, a few days later, the rumor became reality. Trump's extreme uncertainty in strategy and speech has shaken the market's confidence in the stability of American strategies, leading to a significant sell-off of U.S. Treasuries. Last week, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries peaked at 4.5%, and the dollar index dropped below the psychological barrier of 100 points amid panic, hitting a nearly three-year low. European market safe-haven assets also saw gains, with the euro benefiting from capital inflows, last week’s increase exceeding that of the yen. The Swiss franc also significantly appreciated against the dollar, and gold reached new highs for three consecutive days! The data behind this also reveals global capital markets' doubts about the stability and predictability of the American economy. Even though March's CPI and PPI data showed some cooling, inflation could resurge after the comprehensive implementation of tariffs, further compressing the Federal Reserve's operational space. The probability of not cutting interest rates in May is as high as 80%. Last week, Federal Reserve officials mentioned that when truly facing a liquidity crisis, they will inevitably resort to strategic tools.

Yi Hai Lun Bi writes each analysis article with a responsible, focused, and sincere attitude, with distinctive features that are not pretentious or exaggerated!
Daily market analysis, I am digital currency analyst Yi Hai Lun Bi!
Recent articles have consistently emphasized following the trend. Continuous consolidation will dominate current market sentiment. Whether new friends or old friends, I once again emphasize to let go of speculative psychology and not to go against the market. The opportunity I provide is only once. If you can only stay at a stage of saying one thing and doing another, then the connection can only remain at this current stage. I understand everyone's feelings. Friends who have known me for a long time know that a forced situation does not yield sweet results. Choosing me is not just a responsibility but also a friendship. Back to the market movements, the recent weekend trends do not seem to be as quiet as before. BTC once climbed to $86,000. The trade war between us and the U.S. continues to escalate, with both sides raising tariffs to over 100%. We no longer respond to the U.S. tariff sanctions, and Trump ultimately exempted tariffs on electronic products such as smartphones and computers, excluding these products. In addition to the 125% tariffs imposed by Trump on us and the 10% baseline tariff imposed on almost all other regions, these electronic products are typically not manufactured in the U.S., and establishing manufacturing facilities in the U.S. will also take several years.

Yi Hai Lun Bi writes each analysis article with a responsible, focused, and sincere attitude, with distinctive features—no pretentiousness, no exaggeration!
Daily market interpretation, I am digital currency analyst Yi Hai Lun Bi!
Earlier, it was mentioned that the CPI data released by the U.S. shows that the inflation rate is declining. Yesterday, the PPI data for March was released, showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.4%, the largest drop since October 2023, primarily due to the decrease in energy costs. The drop in oil prices is not a healthy sign and has reignited concerns about an economic recession in the U.S. Trump announced a 90-day suspension of tariffs, adjusting the tax rates for multiple regions to 10%, which only excludes us. Market expectations for an escalation of the trade war have risen again. Furthermore, the U.S. Customs reported yesterday that due to system failures, related tariffs are currently not being collected. The market quickly reacted, and this system failure seems more like a strategic test, indicating that the U.S. may be shifting towards a more moderate stance on tariff policies.

The market seems to have entered a new round of consolidation after experiencing several large fluctuations. At this stage, the small fluctuations have led some friends to feel relatively bored. Yesterday's bears were looking for an exit, even though some friends only started attacking at the $80,000 position, with a space of 1,500 points below. It seems that latecomers are feeling more anxious. In fact, looking back at Lao Yi's strategy, he mentioned in yesterday's article before the attack that once some bearish signals are out, we can directly align with the bears. Many new friends have come to Lao Yi and expressed that following the articles can yield considerable returns. But Lao Yi wants to remind everyone that many times the articles have a lag and the updates in the news cannot completely align with market changes. Therefore, he has always reminded everyone that if an attack is needed, it is essential to communicate with Lao Yi in advance to avoid unnecessary losses due to sudden events. In addition, I saw a new friend's question yesterday; taking yesterday's market distance, the overall fluctuation of BTC was 4,000 points, which is clearly a bearish signal. Why wait for the market to show some movement before choosing to attack? I don't know if everyone has this doubt. To clarify: psychologically, no one can control the point at the highest and the lowest. Lao Yi's duty is to maximize profits in gains and minimize risks in losses, not to be a gambler. A 4,000-point fluctuation allows you to conduct market research; this can already outperform the vast majority of people in the market. Always adhere to a cautious approach. If some friends believe the market is relatively clear, they can choose to act independently or ask other analysts. If choosing Lao Yi, there is an additional responsibility.

Yi Hai Lun Coin writes every analysis article with a responsible, focused, and sincere attitude, with distinct characteristics, not pretentious or exaggerated!
Daily market analysis, I am digital currency analyst Yi Hai Lun Coin!
Surge? In recent days, Lao Yi has already reminded everyone that yesterday BTC had an overall increase of 8.25% (6292.8), with a volatility of up to 11.75% (8968). Although not all could be captured, securing more than half of the chips is still quite considerable. Friends who were bearish last night seem to have gone silent. Lao Yi still wants to remind everyone that when the trend is clear, it is best to follow it; when the situation is unclear, align with the major players. The facts prove that Trump has always targeted us; the tariffs on our products have eventually increased to 125%, while the reciprocal tariffs on over 75 regions have been significantly reduced to 10%, and tariffs have been suspended for 90 days for everyone except us. U.S. stocks and BTC rebounded in response, with the Nasdaq rising 12.16%, marking the largest single-day increase since 2001. The uncertainty regarding tariffs has been significantly reduced, and there will be a 90-day window, which has also sparked quite a bit of speculation.

Yi Hai Lun Coin writes every analysis article with a responsible, focused, and sincere attitude, with distinctive characteristics, not pretentious or exaggerated!
Daily market interpretation, I am digital currency analyst Yi Hai Lun Coin!
BTC fell to around $74,500 on Monday and then quickly rebounded to a high of $81,000. The CME gap formed over the weekend has not yet been completely filled. The current price has returned to the peak of the last bull market, which is also the strongest support level at this stage. For the upcoming trend, both bulls and bears are evenly matched, and the market is waiting for the next stage of bull and bear to restart. Due to Trump's tariffs about to officially take effect, the 365-day moving average has once again been breached. Technically speaking, we are seeing another bear market signal in the short term. The White House has announced an additional 50% tariff on our goods, bringing the total tax rate to 104%. To counteract the associated pressures, we have signaled an increase in money supply, which also means that our fiat currency will face further depreciation pressure, benefiting exports. However, it also indicates that our trade war with the US has entered a new stage, and some regions in Europe seem to have similar plans.

Yi Hai Lun Coin writes every analysis article with a responsible, focused, and sincere attitude, with distinct characteristics, avoiding pretentiousness and exaggeration!
Daily market interpretation, I am digital currency analyst Yi Hai Lun Coin!
Yesterday, BTC returned to $74,508, and in a short time, it seemed to signal a bear market, as both the 50-week and 365-day moving averages were broken. However, last night, two pieces of news provided momentum to the market again. Firstly, Trump reiterated that the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates. Reports indicate that the Federal Reserve held a closed-door meeting yesterday to review and determine the withdrawal and discount rates charged by Federal Reserve banks. However, based on predictive data, the probability of the Federal Reserve not cutting rates in May is actually higher than yesterday. Meanwhile, media reports suggest that Trump is considering suspending tariffs on some countries for 90 days. This news directly caused BTC to rebound rapidly, returning to the starting point, but this piece of news was soon confirmed as a rumor, and BTC retraced some gains, yet ultimately remained around the $80,000 mark.

Yi Hai Lun Bi writes every analysis article with a responsible, focused, and sincere attitude, with distinct characteristics, not pretentious or exaggerated!
Daily market interpretation, I am digital currency analyst Yi Hai Lun Bi!
This week, there are many macroeconomic events involved, so let me list them for you, and we will analyze them one by one later. On April 9, the U.S. equal tariffs will officially take effect; this Thursday, the CPI inflation rate for March will be announced, and the Federal Reserve will also release the minutes of the March monetary policy meeting; this Friday, the PPI data for March will be published, and some Federal Reserve officials will also speak. The uncertainty brought by tariffs continues to guide market sentiment. Trump stated that any agreement reached with affected regions to reduce tariffs must eliminate the U.S. trade deficit. The Japanese and South Korean stock markets opened sharply lower this morning. Shinzō Abe stated that he would meet with Trump to continue negotiating a reduction in tariffs on Japan, but short-term results may not be achieved. Before April 15, everyone needs to be aware that the market is expected to face considerable volatility. April 15 is also the deadline for U.S. tax reporting, which is the deadline for declaring personal income taxes. However, the short-term focus will still be on the equal tariffs on April 9.

Yi Hai Lun Bi writes every analysis article with a responsible, focused, and sincere attitude, with distinct features, not pretentious or exaggerated!
Daily market analysis, I am digital currency analyst Yi Hai Lun Bi!
This week's battle results are not eye-catching in the current market, but overall it is relatively considerable. Although it is not as spectacular as a bull market, it is clear that everyone prefers to steadily take profits now. There have been many new friends recently, so responses to everyone have been relatively slow. I would like to take this weekend to share some thoughts. There is a rather painful topic: for most new friends, the first and last thing they do each day might be to check their phones for the price of their altcoins. Why aren’t they rising? They are always given hope only to face deeper despair. The tax station has arrived; they are reluctant to cut losses, and not cutting losses is also uncomfortable, trapped in this endless cycle. They hope for divine intervention to rescue them. Regarding this, I want to share Old Yi's attitude. Friends familiar with Old Yi know that regardless of whether in articles or daily life, the topics of discussion are always BTC and ETH, making up almost 99% of the content. There is very little time spent discussing altcoins with everyone. Even if there is, it is due to friends around me experiencing problems collectively in the altcoin market, being manipulated by capital. This is not what Old Yi wants to see, and many times I tell new friends that when the inner belief is strong, no one can dissuade you.