Since spot Bitcoin ETFs launched, exchange reserves no longer have a clear correlation with BTC prices. Even when reserves drop, prices don’t necessarily surge — because most trading now comes from institutions, often through OTC desks or Coinbase Premium activity.
Interestingly, the Coinbase Premium Gap seems to act as a leading indicator.
Mar 2025: Premium turned negative → prices soon fell.
Apr 2025: Premium crossed above zero → BTC rebounded.
Jul–Oct 2025: Positive premium aligned with rallies; negative with corrections.
Post-ETF, this metric seems better reflecting the balance between U.S. and Asian market sentiment. As ETF flows replace exchange reserves as a key signal, Coinbase Premium has become Bitcoin’s new real-time sentiment gauge.
Now, the gap is narrowing—could this mean a reversal is coming?
Written by Sunny Mom
