📉 $BTC（2025-11-19 07:42）｜Long-Short Trend Index: 28 / 100 (Weak Downtrend)

📉 $BTC（2025-11-24 07:51）｜Bullish/Bearish Trend Index: 33 / 100 (Weak rebound in a bearish structure)
BTC is currently around 86,764 USD, having risen about +2.5% in the past 24 hours, experiencing a technical rebound from near the previous low (84,600), but overall still in a clear medium-term bearish trend. This round of increase is more of a correction rebound after being oversold, and no structural reversal signals have been seen yet. If BTC breaks above 89,50090,200 USD with increased volume, it could confirm the continuation of the rebound; if it falls below 85,000 USD, it may revisit the 82,800~83,500 USD region.

🔹 Multi-timeframe Trends & Technical Indicators
15-minute chart: MA7/25/99 bearish structure has not yet reversed, but there was a quick breakout above MA25; MACD golden cross has strengthened momentum; RSI ~42 → retracement after the rebound, short-term is biased towards oscillation repair.
1-hour chart: MA7 is turning up but still below MA25 and MA99, trend remains weak; MACD has continuously released green bars → turning into a golden cross; RSI ~55, short-term has entered a relatively strong rhythm.
4-hour chart: Bearish trend still dominates, MA system overall tilting down; MACD golden cross is emerging but still at a low position; RSI ~48, rebounding but has not escaped the weak channel.
Daily chart: MA7/25/99 are all in a bearish arrangement; MACD death cross and green bars are slowing down; RSI ~28.6, first rebound after entering deep oversold → indicating further repair space.
Weekly chart: Structure is bearish but not broken down; MA7 is bending down close to MA25; MACD red bars are rapidly shrinking; RSI ~35.7 → long-term momentum is weakening but has not entered a trending collapse.

📌 Comprehensive Judgment:
Short-term (15m~1H): biased towards strong repair
Medium-term (4H~1D): bearish dominance but rebound has room
Long-term (weekly): structure is weakening but not broken
→ Overall, it is still a rebound in a downward trend, and the sustainability needs to observe the performance of breaking 90K.

🌐 Macro Sentiment and News (Past 48 hours)
1. U.S. economic data is relatively strong → U.S. Treasury yields have risen: 10-year yield back to 4.48%, putting pressure on high-risk assets.
2. U.S. Dollar Index maintains high-level oscillation (around 105.4): Weak risk appetite makes BTC's rebound seem more like a technical repair rather than a trend reversal.
3. BTC ETF has seen a small net outflow again: approximately 120 million USD, indicating that institutions remain cautious.
4. The cryptocurrency market fear index continues to drop to the 29-32 range: classified as extreme fear area → consistent with oversold rebound, but does not guarantee trend reversal.