BTC (2025-11-27 08:22) | Long and Short Trend Index: 46 / 100 (Weak Rebound)

BTC price is approximately $90,260, experiencing a strong rebound after a series of declines, but overall still in a downtrend. Bulls have regained control in the short term, but the medium-term trend has not yet reversed. If it stabilizes in the 89,500-90,000 region, the rebound is expected to test 92,800-93,500; if it breaks below 88,000, it will return to a weak pattern and may retest around 85,600.

【Short-term Structure】

The 15-minute cycle shows that the rebound is entering a slowing phase. MA7 and MA25 remain upward, but the MACD red bar is shortening, indicating weakening momentum; RSI is around 59, slightly strong but lacking a clear breakout signal.

The 1-hour cycle is the core driving force of this rebound. MA7 crosses above MA25, and the MACD golden cross is accompanied by an increase in volume, indicating a still bullish short-term structure. However, the MA99 resistance has not yet been broken, and the RSI is close to 68, which is in a short-term easy pullback zone, and further upward movement requires increased volume.

【Medium-term Structure】

The 4-hour cycle is still in a bearish structure, but the downward momentum is weakening. The MA system continues to be in a bearish arrangement, but the angle is flattening; the MACD has a golden cross but with limited strength, typical of a pullback after a decline. The RSI has risen to 63, indicating that the rebound has a certain strength, but the trend has not yet reversed.

The daily line is still in a mid-term downward trend. MA7 suppresses the price, and the MACD continues to maintain green bars, with the rebound insufficient to form a trend reversal. The RSI is at 38, having escaped the oversold zone, but still within a weak range, belonging to a repair phase rather than a trending bull market.

【Long-term Structure】

The weekly line maintains a high-level correction trend. The MACD has not stopped declining, and the RSI is around 38, indicating weak long-term momentum. No trend reversal signals have appeared, and the market remains in a corrective cycle from high levels.

【Trend Index Summary】

Considering all cycles, the BTC long and short trend index is 46, representing a “weak rebound in a bearish trend.” There are short-term performances, but they are insufficient to shake the medium to long-term downward structure. If it cannot break through 93,000 and the daily MA99 (around 98,000), medium-term pressure will continue.

【Impact of News】

On the macro front, the Federal Reserve continues a hawkish stance, and the market has no expectations for interest rate cuts. U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index remain high, exerting pressure on risk assets. Although there has been a slight net inflow of ETF funds, it is insufficient to bring about a trend reversal, more belonging to an emotional recovery phase.