In recent days, both the US stock market and the cryptocurrency market have been fluctuating slightly, and everyone is waiting for the result of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in December.

Since the speech by New York Fed President Williams last Friday, investor sentiment has gradually warmed up.

This once again proves that the current market trend is mainly influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

The focus is on next week: Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates? What does the latest dot plot say? What signals will Powell's speech give? Along with the economic data being released, all of these will increase market volatility.

From on-chain data, the BTC turnover rate has decreased significantly, indicating that most investors are holding onto their coins and waiting.

The chip structure is also quite stable, with no signs of large sell-offs from investors who are at a loss.

From the inventory data of exchanges over the past year, although BTC prices have fluctuated greatly, the inventory in exchanges has been consistently declining.

This indicates that more and more investors are optimistic about BTC's long-term prospects, and once they buy, they are reluctant to act. When prices fall, even more people are buying at the bottom.

If extended to the most recent five years, the exchange inventory has dropped to the level of December 2025, directly crossing a complete market cycle.

This is also the biggest change of this cycle; during the bull market in 2021, everyone still regarded BTC as a short-term speculative asset, looking for opportunities to sell high when the price rose.

But now it's different; investors are more inclined to hold long-term.

As the exchange inventory decreases, the circulation decreases, creating a situation where people are reluctant to sell.

From the BTC holding distribution, whether it is large holders with over 10 coins or small retail investors with less than 10 coins, there has been a significant increase in holdings recently, especially among small retail investors.

This indicates that market sentiment has eased, with many people buying at low levels, and the buying volume exceeds the selling volume.

On the institutional side, the CEO of BlackRock revealed that some sovereign wealth funds have already started buying Bitcoin. These funds are gradually building positions, especially accelerating their accumulation when the price falls to around $80,000.

On the ETH side, BMNR has increased its holdings by 41,946 ETH through Bitgo and FalconX. They have added a total of 97,649 ETH this week.

They have basically been buying every week without fail since July, buying all the way up to a high of $4,600, and now buying back from that high at $3,100.

Overall, the trends in the U.S. stock and crypto markets are mainly driven by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

From the data, large holders are continuing to buy at low levels, and market confidence and liquidity are slowly recovering.

Next, attention can be focused on Powell's speech at the meeting and the latest interest rate dot plot, which are key to assessing the future pace of rate cuts.

Before the Federal Reserve starts to cut rates rapidly, all increases are just rebounds and it is difficult to completely reverse the trend.