The XRP price has turned into a test of patience in recent weeks. The coin has decreased by approximately 18% in the last month and nearly 4% in the last 24 hours. Since it has spent most of the last weeks moving sideways within a narrow range, it makes investors feel like 'still water does not breed moss.'
However, the recent movements carry some signals not seen in previous attempts. Both a mark formed on the chart and a change in investor behavior indicate that there is a chance of a recovery finding support this time.
Are Buyers Coming Back? A New Signal Is Drawing Attention
XRP has been trading between $2.28 and $1.98 since the end of last November. This range indicates that buyers and sellers are at a stalemate. However, in recent days, a new development has occurred downward in this band. The price touched the support line of the symmetrical triangle. Symmetrical triangle patterns generally indicate that buyers and sellers are slowing down at the same rate and give a hint of strong movements.
The first strong hint comes from the volume trend. Between December 6 and December 11, while the price dipped to a new low, the On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator formed a higher low.
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OBV measures the volume coming in and out of the coin. When the price falls while OBV rises, it indicates that there is 'hidden accumulation' behind the weak-looking chart. This means someone is accumulating as the price drops! This is the first sign that a recovery attempt is about to show.
The combination of triangle support and OBV divergence suggests that early buyers are repositioning.
If Selling Pressure Decreases, This Rise May Be Permanent
For a solid reaction to occur, the selling pressure must also decrease. Generally, the most stable group in the coin, long-term investors, have significantly reduced their selling rates. On December 3, they were selling 101,083,156 XRP. By December 10, this figure had decreased to 51,157,301 XRP. This represents a decline of approximately 49%. They are still on the seller side overall, but there is a noticeable softening in selling pressure.
The third most interesting sign comes from the most active wallets. These short-term XRP holders typically sold during recoveries and dampened the rise. However, this time, they are reducing their XRP supply. This is clearly seen in the 'HODL Waves' metric; this metric shows how much supply is held according to age groups.
On December 2, 24-hour holders held 1.89% of the total XRP supply. By December 10, this ratio had dropped to just 0.22%.
The group holding for one day to one week peaked at 3.88% on December 4, and by December 10, it had dropped to 1.24%. This fluctuation generally eliminates speculative pressure that weakens recoveries.
Long-term investors are selling less, while short-term (speculative capital) holders are exiting the market, which ensures that price spikes are sustainable.
XRP Price Levels: Will It Confirm the Bounce or Break It?
XRP is currently around $2.00 and is still trading in the wide range of $2.28-$1.98. For this recovery to strengthen, XRP needs to first surpass $2.17. This is about 8.37% above and a threshold that will determine the fate of the next attack. If the daily close comes above this level, the chance of the price testing the top of the range increases.
An attack above $2.28 would truly confirm a range breakout. Then the XRP price can finally target higher levels.
Downward risk is at the door! If the daily candle closes below the $1.98 level, the bullish scenario weakens. If this level breaks, the chart opens a path towards $1.88. This area stands out as the next significant support.
