The current Bitcoin market can be characterized as a rebound within a broader downward or range-bound phase. At this point, a cautiously bearish scenario remains dominant, although the data does not support an immediate or accelerating downside.
On-chain metrics show that Bitcoin’s Realized Cap, which had expanded steadily for roughly two and a half years, has flattened over the past month. This indicates that while price volatility persists, net new capital inflows have stalled. The lack of follow-through on price rebounds can be largely explained by this structural slowdown in capital entering the network.
In addition, 30-day apparent demand continues to trend lower, with successive peaks declining over time. Compared with prior bullish phases, buying pressure appears limited and insufficient to consistently absorb supply. As a result, Bitcoin has struggled to maintain higher price levels, increasing its sensitivity to downside moves.
In this environment, seasonal patterns and year-end anomalies carry limited explanatory power. The more relevant question is whether demand-side recovery can be confirmed through structural data. A renewed acceleration in Realized Cap and a sustained shift of apparent demand back into positive territory would be required to signal a meaningful change in conditions.
For now, the base case remains a consolidation and adjustment phase as the market waits for new demand to re-emerge. However, if on-chain data begins to show simultaneous improvement in capital inflows and demand, this assessment would need to be re-evaluated.
（Analysis Report No.155）
XWIN Research Japan is a certified analyst at @cryptoquant_com.
The XWIN Group operates the DeFi platform “xwin.finance”.
Written by XWIN Research Japan
