Over the weekend, although market liquidity was average, overall sentiment was pretty good, with BTC fluctuating around 90,000.
What everyone is most concerned about now is the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on December 11.
The probability of a rate cut in December has risen to 88.4%, basically considered a done deal.
But the key is the latest dot plot and Powell's speech, which will directly affect short-term trends and market sentiment.
It looks quite similar to the end of 2024, when it was also around Christmas, and the market had a good sentiment for a December rate cut, compounded by Trump's election win, and everyone was ready to celebrate.
As a result, Powell's speech poured cold water on the market, causing it to plummet.
The latest dot plot released at that time showed that there would only be 2 rate cuts in 2025, but in reality, there have been 4 rate cuts this year.
Therefore, what Powell says this time and how many times the dot plot indicates rate cuts in 20206 will directly affect short-term trends and market sentiment.
Next year, there is also Trump's midterm election; to stabilize the situation, he will certainly focus on steady growth, stable employment, and a stable stock market.
Moreover, in 2026, the Federal Reserve Chairman will be replaced, and he will likely choose someone more compliant.
I believe that after the new chairman takes office, even if there are no rapid rate cuts, it is highly likely that their views will align with Trump's, truly opening the rate cut pathway.
From the data, the turnover rate of BTC has declined, and most people are waiting on the sidelines, with little selling pressure.
MicroStrategy's Michael Saylor has released a Bitcoin tracker, suggesting they are still continuing to buy BTC.
Currently, the price of BTC mainly depends on the Federal Reserve's stance, and the impact of the halving cycle, which occurs every four years, has become minimal.
Due to the reduced supply from the halving, compared to the average daily trading volume in the market, it has become negligible.
Data shows that the next halving will be in 2028, where the output per block will decrease from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC, and the daily BTC output will drop from 450 to 225.
However, the daily trading volume of BTC is about 420,000, and the impact of the halving only accounts for 0.054%, which will hardly have any impact on the market.
In the future, what truly influences the price of BTC are the long-term holders within the market and the external liquidity (supply and demand).
After this round of significant trading, the liquid chips in the market will be locked up again. With expectations of ample liquidity, the probability of a deep bear market is very low.
Overall, the current trends in the US stock and crypto markets mainly rely on the Federal Reserve's expectations of interest rate cuts in the short term.
Before the Federal Reserve begins to cut interest rates rapidly, any rise will merely be a rebound, making it difficult to completely reverse.
Entering December, there will be many macro events, and during times full of uncertainty, market volatility will definitely increase, so everyone should be psychologically prepared.
