Murphy
17年老韭菜；研究链上数据和宏观情绪相结合，构建自己的交易思维。保持谨慎乐观 | X: @Murphychen888
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I can elaborate on my considerations for going short here, mainly based on the indicators' signals:
1. The trend line diverges from the price, and when it approaches the midline, it can be considered an entry point;
2. A red oversold signal appears in the momentum, indicating a serious deviation and a need for regression and correction;
3. The expected price indicators calculate three price levels as follows: $91,066, $91,755, $92,398;
In addition, yesterday I saw that Binance exchange suddenly had a net inflow of 5,200 BTC, which is quite eye-catching, especially after maintaining a net outflow for three weeks before this sudden change, especially close to the weekend.
So at noon yesterday, when the indicators showed a divergence signal, I placed a short position as a preemptive move based on the above speculation.
Moreover, from 11:00 PM to 1:00 AM last night, these two 1-hour candles on Binance exactly dumped over 5k BTC, with a similar quantity, which further raises suspicion that this was premeditated. After these chips were dumped, the trading volume returned to a low point, and the price became a straight line.
In summary, considering the recent back-and-forth movements of the BTC hourly chart, I plan to speculate on a short trade. Of course, if the judgment is wrong, the loss must still be taken; I will not hold onto the position.
1. The trend line diverges from the price, and when it approaches the midline, it can be considered an entry point;
2. A red oversold signal appears in the momentum, indicating a serious deviation and a need for regression and correction;
3. The expected price indicators calculate three price levels as follows: $91,066, $91,755, $92,398;
In addition, yesterday I saw that Binance exchange suddenly had a net inflow of 5,200 BTC, which is quite eye-catching, especially after maintaining a net outflow for three weeks before this sudden change, especially close to the weekend.
So at noon yesterday, when the indicators showed a divergence signal, I placed a short position as a preemptive move based on the above speculation.
Moreover, from 11:00 PM to 1:00 AM last night, these two 1-hour candles on Binance exactly dumped over 5k BTC, with a similar quantity, which further raises suspicion that this was premeditated. After these chips were dumped, the trading volume returned to a low point, and the price became a straight line.
In summary, considering the recent back-and-forth movements of the BTC hourly chart, I plan to speculate on a short trade. Of course, if the judgment is wrong, the loss must still be taken; I will not hold onto the position.
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Super Whale Group Reappears with Massive On-Chain Turnover
On December 8, the whale group holding over 10,000 BTC — also one of the main groups of BTC in this cycle — suddenly had a massive turnover of 117,000 BTC. I checked the BTC balance on exchanges during the same period, and there was no significant increase, indicating that this transaction was completed only on-chain.
Of course, it is also possible that there is an internal transfer of institutions, but the greater probability is that it is an economic behavior (such as OTC), fortunately, it did not have a serious impact on the secondary market price, indicating that it can be gradually absorbed by the off-market demand side.
Coincidentally, before the unwind of the yen carry trade on August 5, 2024, specifically during the period of July to August, this group also generated a dense amount of spending. This inevitably reminds one of the potential factor of the Bank of Japan possibly raising interest rates again on the 18th of this month.
Of course, it is also possible that there is an internal transfer of institutions, but the greater probability is that it is an economic behavior (such as OTC), fortunately, it did not have a serious impact on the secondary market price, indicating that it can be gradually absorbed by the off-market demand side.
Coincidentally, before the unwind of the yen carry trade on August 5, 2024, specifically during the period of July to August, this group also generated a dense amount of spending. This inevitably reminds one of the potential factor of the Bank of Japan possibly raising interest rates again on the 18th of this month.
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What truly determines the direction of the cycle is that invisible demand curve.
New Investor Supply (First Buyers Supply, FBS) defines the quantity of BTC purchased and held for the first time. Compared to 'new address count,' it more accurately reflects the current investors' risk preferences and changes in market demand strength.
In this cycle, there is a market participation structure that is significantly different from previous cycles, such as ETF buyers, BTC treasury companies, options market makers, and so on. Therefore, the behavior patterns of investors have also changed significantly. Once all of this is on-chain, the data representing the behavior of new buyers will be closely related to BTC market trends.
In this cycle, there is a market participation structure that is significantly different from previous cycles, such as ETF buyers, BTC treasury companies, options market makers, and so on. Therefore, the behavior patterns of investors have also changed significantly. Once all of this is on-chain, the data representing the behavior of new buyers will be closely related to BTC market trends.
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The "bear bottom" may be gradually rising
During the period from 11/22 to 11/23, BTC's PSIP (Profit Supply Percentage) once fell below the 65% "bull-bear line", which was a relatively dangerous signal at the time because even after the May 19, 2021 event, BTC did not let the PSIP drop below this line during a sharp decline. It wasn't until it finally broke this line in April 2022 that BTC substantively entered the deep bear phase.
Therefore, we also mentioned in our tweet on November 20th the possibility of a rebound when emotions are extremely compressed. Currently, the PSIP has temporarily returned to 67.6%, but it still remains in a narrow range of 65%-70% where the chances are about fifty-fifty. Confidence can be moderately restored upward, while downward movement may trigger panic.
Therefore, we also mentioned in our tweet on November 20th the possibility of a rebound when emotions are extremely compressed. Currently, the PSIP has temporarily returned to 67.6%, but it still remains in a narrow range of 65%-70% where the chances are about fifty-fifty. Confidence can be moderately restored upward, while downward movement may trigger panic.
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The balance of BTC in exchanges is only left with 2,936,000 coins!
The new low in this cycle also means that more BTC is being withdrawn to on-chain reserves, rather than being deposited into exchanges for selling. The last time the balance was at such a low level was after the FTX collapse on December 17, 2022, when a lack of trust in centralized exchanges led to a concentrated withdrawal action, resulting in a drastic drop in exchange balances.
The BTC balance on Binance has a significant impact on short-term prices. From the beginning of 2024 to now, there have been four noticeable rapid increases, all corresponding to a weakening of BTC prices at the same time.
The changes in Binance's BTC balance are closely related to the strength of off-chain selling pressure. An increase in the value often puts pressure on short-term prices. However, the balance has been declining recently, which provides the prerequisite conditions for a rebound.
The BTC balance on Binance has a significant impact on short-term prices. From the beginning of 2024 to now, there have been four noticeable rapid increases, all corresponding to a weakening of BTC prices at the same time.
The changes in Binance's BTC balance are closely related to the strength of off-chain selling pressure. An increase in the value often puts pressure on short-term prices. However, the balance has been declining recently, which provides the prerequisite conditions for a rebound.
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'Emotional Stress Index' indicates the strength of the rebound
I know many friends will compare the current stage of BTC to June 2021 or February 2022. This point can indeed be seen in the 'Emotional Stress Index', as there are many similarities.
Both are in the oversold area, with the inversion of bullish and bearish emotions.
Both are close to the bull-bear transition period in the traditional 4-year cycle.
Both have experienced a significant panic-driven drop, and before this, there were some macro-negative or black swan events.
In 2021, there was 5.19, in 2025 there is 10.11; in 2022, the Federal Reserve released interest rate hike + tightening expectations, and in 2025, the US government shutdown led to liquidity shortages...
Both are in the oversold area, with the inversion of bullish and bearish emotions.
Both are close to the bull-bear transition period in the traditional 4-year cycle.
Both have experienced a significant panic-driven drop, and before this, there were some macro-negative or black swan events.
In 2021, there was 5.19, in 2025 there is 10.11; in 2022, the Federal Reserve released interest rate hike + tightening expectations, and in 2025, the US government shutdown led to liquidity shortages...
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Long time no see, "three-line integration"
After the last surge on October 6th, the red line began to move down in sync with the blue-green line. Although the price reached a new high, the MVRV value ultimately failed to break through the previous high of 2.42, continuing the trend of significant divergence.
Since the "three-line integration" itself is based on the theory of a 4-year bull-bear cycle, deviation means the end of the trend/cycle (temporarily unverifiable). From the trend of the red line, it is indeed currently moving towards the blue-green two lines according to the timing rhythm of past cycles.
If this continues, the MVRV will roughly be around 1.51-1.66 before December 31st. According to the current RP calculation, this corresponds to a BTC price of $85,000 - $94,000.
Since the "three-line integration" itself is based on the theory of a 4-year bull-bear cycle, deviation means the end of the trend/cycle (temporarily unverifiable). From the trend of the red line, it is indeed currently moving towards the blue-green two lines according to the timing rhythm of past cycles.
If this continues, the MVRV will roughly be around 1.51-1.66 before December 31st. According to the current RP calculation, this corresponds to a BTC price of $85,000 - $94,000.
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The cycle has accelerated, and the increase has become smaller.
This is a BTC annual K-line chart that uses a logarithmic scale, which reflects the percentage change in BTC price over a year, rather than absolute price changes. From this chart, what problems can you see, my friends? I'll start by throwing out a brick to attract jade...
Firstly, the most intuitive thing is that BTC has consistently followed a four-year bull-bear cycle over the past 15 years, indicated by the '3-4-1-2' marked in the figure as one cycle, maintaining a rhythm of 3 bullish and 1 bearish, where 3-4-1 represents bullish candles (bull market) and 2 represents a bearish candle (bear market).
Secondly, if we compare the three K-lines of 2013, 2017, and 2021 individually (the blue dashed line in the figure), we can see that '1' is getting shorter and shorter, meaning the increase is getting smaller. And the year 2025 is just '1'.
Firstly, the most intuitive thing is that BTC has consistently followed a four-year bull-bear cycle over the past 15 years, indicated by the '3-4-1-2' marked in the figure as one cycle, maintaining a rhythm of 3 bullish and 1 bearish, where 3-4-1 represents bullish candles (bull market) and 2 represents a bearish candle (bear market).
Secondly, if we compare the three K-lines of 2013, 2017, and 2021 individually (the blue dashed line in the figure), we can see that '1' is getting shorter and shorter, meaning the increase is getting smaller. And the year 2025 is just '1'.
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When behavioral weights begin to diverge, the turning point of sentiment often occurs quietly.
The Behavior-Weighted Trend Signal (BWTS) can help us identify the true selling pressure of accumulated chips and trend capitulation behavior. This is because it considers not only whether investors are selling BTC at a loss, but more importantly, the chips that have been held for a period of time being forced to sell at a loss.
Therefore, looking at past data, whenever the BWTS (red line) and BTC price (black line) show a divergence pattern, it signifies the gradual clearing of panic selling. This is often followed by a rebound or reversal trend.
However, after May 2022, the Luna crash caused the BWTS, which had already returned to the zero axis, to deviate significantly again, breaking the previous divergence pattern. The rebound ultimately did not turn into a reversal but rather further entered a deep bear phase (as shown in Figure 2).
Therefore, looking at past data, whenever the BWTS (red line) and BTC price (black line) show a divergence pattern, it signifies the gradual clearing of panic selling. This is often followed by a rebound or reversal trend.
However, after May 2022, the Luna crash caused the BWTS, which had already returned to the zero axis, to deviate significantly again, breaking the previous divergence pattern. The rebound ultimately did not turn into a reversal but rather further entered a deep bear phase (as shown in Figure 2).
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Compared to the initial state on November 28, the overall attitude of current whales has clearly shifted — from distribution to accumulation, and gradually showing sustainability, rather than a change on a particular day.
We all know that December has a lot of macro uncertainties, besides "interest rate cut expectations," there are also Powell's speech after the FOMC meeting, the dot plot indicating next year's rate cut path, inflation data, employment data, the new Fed chair candidate, concerns about the Fed's independence, Japan's interest rate hike, and other factors that will bring short-term volatility to the market.
I personally feel that the behavior of whales now should not be solely focused on December, but more like laying out plans for 2026 in advance. Short-term uncertainties do not affect their judgment of long-term certainties, pursuing vague correctness.
We all know that December has a lot of macro uncertainties, besides "interest rate cut expectations," there are also Powell's speech after the FOMC meeting, the dot plot indicating next year's rate cut path, inflation data, employment data, the new Fed chair candidate, concerns about the Fed's independence, Japan's interest rate hike, and other factors that will bring short-term volatility to the market.
I personally feel that the behavior of whales now should not be solely focused on December, but more like laying out plans for 2026 in advance. Short-term uncertainties do not affect their judgment of long-term certainties, pursuing vague correctness.
Murphy
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Ignoring the 'bear market arrival', the anti-human operations of the whale group
On November 21, the lowest BTC dropped to $80,600, with on-chain losses reaching a historical record, and market sentiment was at an extreme level of panic. At this moment, we discovered that a whale entity suddenly increased its holdings significantly, an anti-human operation that was completely misunderstood at the time.
Almost everyone believed that 80k could not hold, and 70k even 60k BTC were already beckoning to us. Who would rush to buy now? Through our inquiries, we found that a super whale holding 10,000 BTC was increasing its holdings. If we find this unbelievable, then there are even more unbelievable things happening next...
Almost everyone believed that 80k could not hold, and 70k even 60k BTC were already beckoning to us. Who would rush to buy now? Through our inquiries, we found that a super whale holding 10,000 BTC was increasing its holdings. If we find this unbelievable, then there are even more unbelievable things happening next...
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As selling pressure weakens + demand is scarce, how should BTC be expected in December?
The profit-taking chips of long-term holders (LTH) and the locked-in chips of short-term holders (STH) are currently the main sources of selling pressure. The latter is influenced by panic emotions, fearing that the price will continue to decline and bring unbearable losses; while the former executes operations according to the trading plan when the traditional four-year cycle theory has not been disproven.
Therefore, for STH, once the panic emotions are released, as long as the price stabilizes or shifts from a sharp decline to a gradual decline, the selling pressure will gradually decrease. After all, who would really want to sell BTC at a loss? For LTH, when taking profits, there is profit, but as long as their realized profit-loss ratio declines (Figure 1), it will inevitably reduce the motivation to sell.
Therefore, for STH, once the panic emotions are released, as long as the price stabilizes or shifts from a sharp decline to a gradual decline, the selling pressure will gradually decrease. After all, who would really want to sell BTC at a loss? For LTH, when taking profits, there is profit, but as long as their realized profit-loss ratio declines (Figure 1), it will inevitably reduce the motivation to sell.
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Trigger point for 'Cycle Bull to Bear' (II)
In continuation of the previous tweet, we observe that the current sensitivity of long-term holders (LTH) of BTC to price has not yet reached a level of full-blown crisis, but the risk is indeed rising (see the quote below). So under what circumstances can we anticipate that 'risk' will turn into 'crisis'?
Here are 2 key criteria for consideration - price and time
On the price front, we can clearly see the cost distribution of LTH holdings from EA-URPD. The highest point is below $1,000, and there are still approximately 1.2 million BTC remaining here (see Figure 1). The next levels are: $82,000 (800,000 BTC), $42,000 (500,000 BTC), and $80,000 (400,000 BTC).
Here are 2 key criteria for consideration - price and time
On the price front, we can clearly see the cost distribution of LTH holdings from EA-URPD. The highest point is below $1,000, and there are still approximately 1.2 million BTC remaining here (see Figure 1). The next levels are: $82,000 (800,000 BTC), $42,000 (500,000 BTC), and $80,000 (400,000 BTC).
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The Trigger Point of 'Cycle Bull to Bear' (1)
During an internal seminar, the boss asked me: What do you think is the probability of BTC entering a deep bear market this time? Although I mentioned some personal views, I know that they carry my subjective wishes. After the meeting, I kept thinking about how to explain this issue using objective logic and data.
I think 'investor price sensitivity' can be one of the bases. This indicator measures: when the BTC price drops by 1%, what is the relative unrealized loss intensity of long-term holders (LTH) and short-term holders (STH)?
I think 'investor price sensitivity' can be one of the bases. This indicator measures: when the BTC price drops by 1%, what is the relative unrealized loss intensity of long-term holders (LTH) and short-term holders (STH)?
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Yesterday's wave of market pull was strong enough that the 4-hour K-line significantly deviated from today's standard line of $89,923. Therefore, it's not very suitable to chase long positions from here today, and now the price has reached the expected price line of the 4th level. It will be challenging to continue pushing strongly this evening. However, as long as it does not fall below the lower limit of $89,923, there will still be opportunities to follow the trend tomorrow.
The daily K-line is still below the bearish trend line but is very close to the trend line at $93,958. This is a point worth paying attention to because the formal breakthrough of this resistance level (which was at $116,400 at the time) failed on October 27, leading to a consecutive downward trend.
In other words, as long as the daily K-line can close above this price in the future, the indicator will change from red to green (bullish trend line), and we can expect a rebound in the daily level. The expected prices above the current rebound are $95,604 and $99,108 for reference.
The daily K-line is still below the bearish trend line but is very close to the trend line at $93,958. This is a point worth paying attention to because the formal breakthrough of this resistance level (which was at $116,400 at the time) failed on October 27, leading to a consecutive downward trend.
In other words, as long as the daily K-line can close above this price in the future, the indicator will change from red to green (bullish trend line), and we can expect a rebound in the daily level. The expected prices above the current rebound are $95,604 and $99,108 for reference.
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The scale of panic selling is gradually decreasing
Yesterday morning, BTC suddenly dropped sharply, disrupting the original rebound rhythm and causing the slightly relieved market sentiment to become tense again. However, based on the data up to this morning, the EARL (Entity Adjusted Realized Loss) on December 1st was 820 million USD, far less than the 2.34 billion USD scale on November 21st (as shown in Figure 1).
On December 1st, the realized loss transferred to the exchange was 80 million USD, which is also less than the 320 million USD on November 21st, and lower than the loss scale on November 14th and 17th (as shown in Figure 2).
As I mentioned in my tweet on November 24th, although the scale of EARL on November 21st looked frightening, it should be the ceiling in the short term. As long as there are no continuous negative impacts, even if the price drops again, there is a good chance that panic losses can gradually decrease.
On December 1st, the realized loss transferred to the exchange was 80 million USD, which is also less than the 320 million USD on November 21st, and lower than the loss scale on November 14th and 17th (as shown in Figure 2).
As I mentioned in my tweet on November 24th, although the scale of EARL on November 21st looked frightening, it should be the ceiling in the short term. As long as there are no continuous negative impacts, even if the price drops again, there is a good chance that panic losses can gradually decrease.
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Traders express their market judgments in trading strategies, so this data should accurately reflect the mainstream views of the current market.
A Call option at $80,000 being heavily bought is definitely the main flow of capital.
Buying ITM Calls is a directional long position (rather than pure hedging). This is because ordinary retail investors prefer to buy cheap OTM calls, which means buying above the spot price, whereas professional funds/institutions often buy ITM.
Essentially, ITM Calls are equivalent to leveraging a long position on the spot market. Delta ≈ 0.95–0.99, price changes nearly mirror the spot price, but are much cheaper than buying the underlying asset directly, requiring only the payment of the premium, and the risk is limited; the maximum loss is just the premium paid.
There has been a noticeable increase in selling Calls at $100,000 and buying Puts.
Buying ITM Puts is no longer just “tail hedging,” but a directional bearish position, with high Delta, making it more sensitive to price changes, thus forming a short position. Selling Calls indicates that traders believe BTC will not break through $100,000 in the short term, actively collecting premiums, and the upward pressure becomes more apparent.
In summary, the market bet at $80,000 is strong support, with bulls positioning at the bottom; the market bet at $100,000 is strong resistance, with bears believing it won’t rise, and they have increased protection against breakout risks.
A Call option at $80,000 being heavily bought is definitely the main flow of capital.
Buying ITM Calls is a directional long position (rather than pure hedging). This is because ordinary retail investors prefer to buy cheap OTM calls, which means buying above the spot price, whereas professional funds/institutions often buy ITM.
Essentially, ITM Calls are equivalent to leveraging a long position on the spot market. Delta ≈ 0.95–0.99, price changes nearly mirror the spot price, but are much cheaper than buying the underlying asset directly, requiring only the payment of the premium, and the risk is limited; the maximum loss is just the premium paid.
There has been a noticeable increase in selling Calls at $100,000 and buying Puts.
Buying ITM Puts is no longer just “tail hedging,” but a directional bearish position, with high Delta, making it more sensitive to price changes, thus forming a short position. Selling Calls indicates that traders believe BTC will not break through $100,000 in the short term, actively collecting premiums, and the upward pressure becomes more apparent.
In summary, the market bet at $80,000 is strong support, with bulls positioning at the bottom; the market bet at $100,000 is strong resistance, with bears believing it won’t rise, and they have increased protection against breakout risks.
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SPI Inversion, Indicating Risks and Reversal
The Sentiment Pressure Index (SPI) can clearly reflect the pressure and changes in BTC bullish and bearish sentiment. The green line represents bullish sentiment, while the red line represents bearish sentiment. When the red line is at the bottom and the green line peaks are gradually increasing, it indicates a trend initiation; when the price continues to rise but the green line declines, it indicates a weakening of bullish sentiment, which is usually a signal of a temporary top.
The above is the basic usage of the index, but here we need to focus on the situation of 'the index is about to or has inverted', that is, when the green line drops to align with the red line and when the red line exceeds the green line. The former usually indicates the mid-term of a bull market (pullback area), while the latter only occurs in the early or mid-late stages of a bull market (oversold area).
The above is the basic usage of the index, but here we need to focus on the situation of 'the index is about to or has inverted', that is, when the green line drops to align with the red line and when the red line exceeds the green line. The former usually indicates the mid-term of a bull market (pullback area), while the latter only occurs in the early or mid-late stages of a bull market (oversold area).
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$85,000 BTC is forming a new support zone
On the CBD (Cost Basis Distribution) heatmap, we can clearly see how many chips have changed (increased/decreased) at what time and price range. For example, the current densest areas have two segments, namely $94,000-$98,000 and $101,000-$118,000, which represents the ranges where BTC will face resistance during the rebound.
Among them, $98,000 is the historical fair price (see yesterday's tweet), and $104,000 is the average cost of short-term holders. These two lines are the hardest reference lines to break in historical bull and bear sentiment switches. In other words, if broken, it can firmly indicate the trend as bullish/bearish.
Among them, $98,000 is the historical fair price (see yesterday's tweet), and $104,000 is the average cost of short-term holders. These two lines are the hardest reference lines to break in historical bull and bear sentiment switches. In other words, if broken, it can firmly indicate the trend as bullish/bearish.
See original
Ignoring the 'bear market arrival', the anti-human operations of the whale group
On November 21, the lowest BTC dropped to $80,600, with on-chain losses reaching a historical record, and market sentiment was at an extreme level of panic. At this moment, we discovered that a whale entity suddenly increased its holdings significantly, an anti-human operation that was completely misunderstood at the time.
Almost everyone believed that 80k could not hold, and 70k even 60k BTC were already beckoning to us. Who would rush to buy now? Through our inquiries, we found that a super whale holding 10,000 BTC was increasing its holdings. If we find this unbelievable, then there are even more unbelievable things happening next...
Almost everyone believed that 80k could not hold, and 70k even 60k BTC were already beckoning to us. Who would rush to buy now? Through our inquiries, we found that a super whale holding 10,000 BTC was increasing its holdings. If we find this unbelievable, then there are even more unbelievable things happening next...
See original
From Extreme Emotions to Trend Recovery: The Core Observation Points for BTC's Next Phase
After a wave of strong panic selling was cleared, BTC welcomed the anticipated rebound. The speed of this rebound was faster than I expected; I originally thought it would take at least until next week to return above $90,000. It seems that both AI and I have to concede this time, but I'm still happy to lose.
The stabilization of prices has provided the market with a rare breather, especially after experiencing consecutive sell-offs. However, while we are happy, we must be clear that it is still far from the time to shout 'bull market'; the real test may still be ahead.
After rebounding from the support at the green line in the MVRV extreme deviation pricing range, BTC's first resistance level is the upper blue line, which is around - 2std = $98,000. Only if it stands above here and does not break below on a pullback can we consider it a short-term bottoming trend structure.
The stabilization of prices has provided the market with a rare breather, especially after experiencing consecutive sell-offs. However, while we are happy, we must be clear that it is still far from the time to shout 'bull market'; the real test may still be ahead.
After rebounding from the support at the green line in the MVRV extreme deviation pricing range, BTC's first resistance level is the upper blue line, which is around - 2std = $98,000. Only if it stands above here and does not break below on a pullback can we consider it a short-term bottoming trend structure.
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