Murphy
17年老韭菜；研究链上数据和宏观情绪相结合，构建自己的交易思维。保持谨慎乐观 | X: @Murphychen888
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The gap filling has begun!
Finally, we have arrived at this day, faster than expected...
You may not believe me, but you cannot ignore the emotions and behaviors that objectively exist behind the data.
I know that at this moment, I should not say much more;
I hope you have already made plans in advance and I hope my tweets can be of help to you!
Finally, we have arrived at this day, faster than expected...
You may not believe me, but you cannot ignore the emotions and behaviors that objectively exist behind the data.
I know that at this moment, I should not say much more;
I hope you have already made plans in advance and I hope my tweets can be of help to you!
Murphy
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BTC falls with the market but does not rise, reflecting low sentiment and a lack of confidence
Pancakes, U.S. stocks, and gold suddenly dropped sharply at the same time, which is quite strange; the possible reasons currently include claims of U.S.-Iran geopolitical conflicts, speculation about yen carry trades being unwound, and potential escalation in the U.S.-Canada trade war... These are all just possible 'bearish expectations,' but one thing is certain — that is the 'behavior' exhibited.
BTC fell back down before even reaching 98,000. We have analyzed on-chain investor behavior, where 3-6 month holders chose to exit to preserve capital or minimize losses, leading to an outflow of funds from the market, and the sensitivity of long-term holders increasing, etc. This really illustrates the issue — an unwillingness to take risks and a lack of confidence in the continuation of the market trend is a typical characteristic of low sentiment.
BTC fell back down before even reaching 98,000. We have analyzed on-chain investor behavior, where 3-6 month holders chose to exit to preserve capital or minimize losses, leading to an outflow of funds from the market, and the sensitivity of long-term holders increasing, etc. This really illustrates the issue — an unwillingness to take risks and a lack of confidence in the continuation of the market trend is a typical characteristic of low sentiment.
Behavioral Implications of STH-RP (Teaching Edition) — From Holding Costs to On-Chain Interpretation of Bull-Bear Switch
STH-RP (STH Realized Price) calculates the price at which the last on-chain movement of addresses holding coins for less than 155 days occurred. In plain terms: where is the 'average cost' for those who bought BTC in the past 155 days — it represents the overall cost center for short-term holders.
Many friends equate it to SMA120 in candlestick technical theory, but they are fundamentally different. STH-RP is the 'human' cost, while SMA120 is the average of 'prices'; one reflects behavioral structure, and the other is mathematical smoothing.
SMA120 changes almost in tandem with price fluctuations, while STH-RP depends on the positions of the holding group during the last and current turnover. Theoretically, if high-priced chips remain still during a BTC drop, then STH-RP will not decrease with the price; conversely, the same applies.
Many friends equate it to SMA120 in candlestick technical theory, but they are fundamentally different. STH-RP is the 'human' cost, while SMA120 is the average of 'prices'; one reflects behavioral structure, and the other is mathematical smoothing.
SMA120 changes almost in tandem with price fluctuations, while STH-RP depends on the positions of the holding group during the last and current turnover. Theoretically, if high-priced chips remain still during a BTC drop, then STH-RP will not decrease with the price; conversely, the same applies.
BTC falls with the market but does not rise, reflecting low sentiment and a lack of confidence
Pancakes, U.S. stocks, and gold suddenly dropped sharply at the same time, which is quite strange; the possible reasons currently include claims of U.S.-Iran geopolitical conflicts, speculation about yen carry trades being unwound, and potential escalation in the U.S.-Canada trade war... These are all just possible 'bearish expectations,' but one thing is certain — that is the 'behavior' exhibited.
BTC fell back down before even reaching 98,000. We have analyzed on-chain investor behavior, where 3-6 month holders chose to exit to preserve capital or minimize losses, leading to an outflow of funds from the market, and the sensitivity of long-term holders increasing, etc. This really illustrates the issue — an unwillingness to take risks and a lack of confidence in the continuation of the market trend is a typical characteristic of low sentiment.
BTC fell back down before even reaching 98,000. We have analyzed on-chain investor behavior, where 3-6 month holders chose to exit to preserve capital or minimize losses, leading to an outflow of funds from the market, and the sensitivity of long-term holders increasing, etc. This really illustrates the issue — an unwillingness to take risks and a lack of confidence in the continuation of the market trend is a typical characteristic of low sentiment.
Sure enough! If nothing unexpected happens, the unexpected will appear......
Starting from December 28, the investor confidence index has been slowly approaching the zero axis. Originally, we estimated that under the premise of maintaining the average rising speed, we would be able to return above the zero axis after 55 days.
However! After January 17, the index has once again gradually moved away from the zero axis. This means that our previous estimate of 55 days will need to be extended until we return to an upward trend, at which point we can reassess.
Alright, let's wait slowly...... The future will surely be bright, though the journey may be bumpy 😂
Starting from December 28, the investor confidence index has been slowly approaching the zero axis. Originally, we estimated that under the premise of maintaining the average rising speed, we would be able to return above the zero axis after 55 days.
However! After January 17, the index has once again gradually moved away from the zero axis. This means that our previous estimate of 55 days will need to be extended until we return to an upward trend, at which point we can reassess.
Alright, let's wait slowly...... The future will surely be bright, though the journey may be bumpy 😂
There are signs of capital fleeing the market
From a funding perspective, the net position of the total supply of mainstream stablecoins has shifted from positive to negative over 30 days. Although the issuance of stablecoins is not entirely used in the cryptocurrency market, the demand and application of stablecoins from some marginal gray industries are unlikely to be significantly affected by market sentiment. Therefore, the continuously decreasing portion is likely to be the real purchasing power that originally remained in the cryptocurrency market.
At the same time, the net position of mainstream stablecoins held in the exchange has shifted from positive to negative (30 days). This can also be seen from the fact that the exchange rate of USDC/USDT on Binance has consistently remained above 1 (indicating a sustained high demand for USDC), which suggests some signs of capital fleeing the market.
At the same time, the net position of mainstream stablecoins held in the exchange has shifted from positive to negative (30 days). This can also be seen from the fact that the exchange rate of USDC/USDT on Binance has consistently remained above 1 (indicating a sustained high demand for USDC), which suggests some signs of capital fleeing the market.
On-chain behavior provides a particularly effective perspective for observing market sentiment. From the supply side, when the BTC price rebounds close to the short-term average cost line (STH-RP), realized losses are primarily caused by investors holding for 3-6 months (Figure 1).
Investors holding for 3-6 months are precisely the short-term holders closest to long-term holders. This means that when they are about to break even, their first consideration is to protect their capital rather than continue to take risks, unwilling to shift from STH to LTH.
In terms of realized profits, the profit share of traders selling with profit margins between 0% and 20% has significantly increased (Figure 2). This implies that sellers at breakeven and short-term swing traders choose to close positions with relatively small profits, rather than continue holding and waiting for the trend to continue.
Such behavior exacerbates the selling pressure on BTC near key resistance thresholds, reflecting the fragility of market confidence. If the next rebound to STH-RP still shows such cautious and negative behavior, the confidence of the bulls will suffer repeated blows.
Of course, there is always competition in the market, and the bulls are not so easily subdued. At every critical point of weak balance, the collision of forces from both sides must determine the outcome. If one attempt fails, another will follow, until one side convinces the other, forming the peaks and troughs in this manner.
Behind on-chain behavior is the genuine emotional feedback from all market participants. Clearly, current investors do not possess the confidence and emotional foundation to reverse the trend, which does not change with our personal wishes. However, the stubbornness and layered resistance of the bulls will lead to rebounds after every short-term overshoot.
Investors holding for 3-6 months are precisely the short-term holders closest to long-term holders. This means that when they are about to break even, their first consideration is to protect their capital rather than continue to take risks, unwilling to shift from STH to LTH.
In terms of realized profits, the profit share of traders selling with profit margins between 0% and 20% has significantly increased (Figure 2). This implies that sellers at breakeven and short-term swing traders choose to close positions with relatively small profits, rather than continue holding and waiting for the trend to continue.
Such behavior exacerbates the selling pressure on BTC near key resistance thresholds, reflecting the fragility of market confidence. If the next rebound to STH-RP still shows such cautious and negative behavior, the confidence of the bulls will suffer repeated blows.
Of course, there is always competition in the market, and the bulls are not so easily subdued. At every critical point of weak balance, the collision of forces from both sides must determine the outcome. If one attempt fails, another will follow, until one side convinces the other, forming the peaks and troughs in this manner.
Behind on-chain behavior is the genuine emotional feedback from all market participants. Clearly, current investors do not possess the confidence and emotional foundation to reverse the trend, which does not change with our personal wishes. However, the stubbornness and layered resistance of the bulls will lead to rebounds after every short-term overshoot.
From the perspective of chip structure, the current price ($89,000) falls in the lower middle of the concentrated chip area between $87,000 and $96,000. Meanwhile, there are still 113.4w BTC in stock at the $87,000-$88,000 level, which is currently the strongest support level.
Although the chips at $83,000-$84,000 also appear to be many, this is influenced by Coinbase's wallet restructuring, rather than arising from real demand. Therefore, this is not the strongest support. This highlights the dual importance of $87,000-$88,000 in terms of fund structure and chip structure.
In the short term, BTC's fluctuations within this price range are an important time node for future directional choices. However, at this point, investor sentiment has become sensitive; there cannot be any negative news during this time, as even an inconspicuous event can further undermine the market's already fragile confidence.
On the contrary, if it does not break $87,000, there remains a possibility to challenge $98,000 or above again; historically, before entering a bear market, BTC would repeatedly attempt to impact the STH-RP (short-term holder cost line), continuing downwards only after multiple failures.
Although the chips at $83,000-$84,000 also appear to be many, this is influenced by Coinbase's wallet restructuring, rather than arising from real demand. Therefore, this is not the strongest support. This highlights the dual importance of $87,000-$88,000 in terms of fund structure and chip structure.
In the short term, BTC's fluctuations within this price range are an important time node for future directional choices. However, at this point, investor sentiment has become sensitive; there cannot be any negative news during this time, as even an inconspicuous event can further undermine the market's already fragile confidence.
On the contrary, if it does not break $87,000, there remains a possibility to challenge $98,000 or above again; historically, before entering a bear market, BTC would repeatedly attempt to impact the STH-RP (short-term holder cost line), continuing downwards only after multiple failures.
"It took so long to go up, but only a few days to come down"; market makers sell more as prices drop, and once a breakout to the upside fails, they are often quickly pushed back down — this is the power of the Short Gamma structure.
Currently, we'll see if the remaining Long Gamma at $90,000 (green bar in Figure 1) can pull the BTC price back, with a GEX of 1.17 billion, which is still not a small scale.
However, once the $88,000 level is breached, the GEX here has reached 1.3 billion, and further down is all Short Gamma (red bar), which is an "acceleration" structure, so if BTC breaks below 88,000, it will be very dangerous.
From a technical perspective, BTC's 3-day K line made a false breakout at a key resistance level, and yesterday the daily K line has broken below the downward trend line at $90,588, indicating that on the daily level, BTC has returned to a downward trend (pressed by the trend line) again (Figures 2 and 3).
Currently, we'll see if the remaining Long Gamma at $90,000 (green bar in Figure 1) can pull the BTC price back, with a GEX of 1.17 billion, which is still not a small scale.
However, once the $88,000 level is breached, the GEX here has reached 1.3 billion, and further down is all Short Gamma (red bar), which is an "acceleration" structure, so if BTC breaks below 88,000, it will be very dangerous.
From a technical perspective, BTC's 3-day K line made a false breakout at a key resistance level, and yesterday the daily K line has broken below the downward trend line at $90,588, indicating that on the daily level, BTC has returned to a downward trend (pressed by the trend line) again (Figures 2 and 3).
Murphy
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BTC's funding structure has undergone significant changes:
Compared to January 12 (see citation), the $88,000 Long Gamma is gone, replaced by Short Gamma; the $90,000 remains Long Gamma, but GEX (options Gamma risk exposure) has decreased from $1.2 billion to now $590 million, almost halving.
This means that the support effect generated by the funding structure in the 88k-90k range has significantly weakened. In contrast, the GEX at $92,000 has reached $1.4 billion, which will amplify BTC's volatility.
From the URPD data, the chip structure has not changed much, with a large amount of chips still accumulated in the $87,000-$92,000 range; therefore, this area remains the current strongest support zone, not easily broken.
However! If extreme circumstances lead to a breach of this range, then the probability of BTC filling the "gap" below will greatly increase. According to the law of the "dual-anchor structure," the middle position is around $72,000-$74,000.
Compared to January 12 (see citation), the $88,000 Long Gamma is gone, replaced by Short Gamma; the $90,000 remains Long Gamma, but GEX (options Gamma risk exposure) has decreased from $1.2 billion to now $590 million, almost halving.
This means that the support effect generated by the funding structure in the 88k-90k range has significantly weakened. In contrast, the GEX at $92,000 has reached $1.4 billion, which will amplify BTC's volatility.
From the URPD data, the chip structure has not changed much, with a large amount of chips still accumulated in the $87,000-$92,000 range; therefore, this area remains the current strongest support zone, not easily broken.
However! If extreme circumstances lead to a breach of this range, then the probability of BTC filling the "gap" below will greatly increase. According to the law of the "dual-anchor structure," the middle position is around $72,000-$74,000.
Understanding the cycle's repetition through the change of sentiment
From the history of BTC, each cycle of investor sentiment goes through 4 stages:
1. Optimistic area (dark purple / dark color): Large entities are significantly increasing their holdings, driving the price up;
2. Profit area (yellow / orange): As the price rises rapidly, early profit-taking chips begin to reduce their holdings;
3. Hesitation area (dark purple / dark color): The price retracts from a high point, and some investors choose to increase their holdings to average down their costs;
4. Disappointment area (yellow / orange): Investors lose confidence in the future market, and chips begin to loosen.
As the price drops to a certain extent, after the bottom consensus is reconstructed, investor sentiment will re-enter stage 1, and thus it repeats in cycles... Over time, it forms an endogenous rule of market sentiment change (indicator explanation at the end).
1. Optimistic area (dark purple / dark color): Large entities are significantly increasing their holdings, driving the price up;
2. Profit area (yellow / orange): As the price rises rapidly, early profit-taking chips begin to reduce their holdings;
3. Hesitation area (dark purple / dark color): The price retracts from a high point, and some investors choose to increase their holdings to average down their costs;
4. Disappointment area (yellow / orange): Investors lose confidence in the future market, and chips begin to loosen.
As the price drops to a certain extent, after the bottom consensus is reconstructed, investor sentiment will re-enter stage 1, and thus it repeats in cycles... Over time, it forms an endogenous rule of market sentiment change (indicator explanation at the end).
BTC's funding structure has undergone significant changes:
Compared to January 12 (see citation), the $88,000 Long Gamma is gone, replaced by Short Gamma; the $90,000 remains Long Gamma, but GEX (options Gamma risk exposure) has decreased from $1.2 billion to now $590 million, almost halving.
This means that the support effect generated by the funding structure in the 88k-90k range has significantly weakened. In contrast, the GEX at $92,000 has reached $1.4 billion, which will amplify BTC's volatility.
From the URPD data, the chip structure has not changed much, with a large amount of chips still accumulated in the $87,000-$92,000 range; therefore, this area remains the current strongest support zone, not easily broken.
However! If extreme circumstances lead to a breach of this range, then the probability of BTC filling the "gap" below will greatly increase. According to the law of the "dual-anchor structure," the middle position is around $72,000-$74,000.
Compared to January 12 (see citation), the $88,000 Long Gamma is gone, replaced by Short Gamma; the $90,000 remains Long Gamma, but GEX (options Gamma risk exposure) has decreased from $1.2 billion to now $590 million, almost halving.
This means that the support effect generated by the funding structure in the 88k-90k range has significantly weakened. In contrast, the GEX at $92,000 has reached $1.4 billion, which will amplify BTC's volatility.
From the URPD data, the chip structure has not changed much, with a large amount of chips still accumulated in the $87,000-$92,000 range; therefore, this area remains the current strongest support zone, not easily broken.
However! If extreme circumstances lead to a breach of this range, then the probability of BTC filling the "gap" below will greatly increase. According to the law of the "dual-anchor structure," the middle position is around $72,000-$74,000.
Murphy
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Funding Structure + Position Structure = Market Direction
The option Gamma exposure (GEX) essentially tells us: when BTC price fluctuates, do option market makers 'help stabilize the price' or 'are forced to follow the price movement'? Market makers (MMs) typically don't bet on direction, but earn from spreads. After selling/buying options, they become exposed to changes in Delta and Gamma.
As soon as the price changes, Delta changes (this is Gamma). To maintain a risk-neutral position, MMs must immediately buy or sell BTC spot (or futures) for hedging.
In a Long Gamma state, when the price drops, MMs buy BTC; when the price rises, they sell BTC to hedge; thus forming Gamma gravity. Conversely, in a Short Gamma state, when the price drops, MMs are forced to sell BTC; when the price rises, they are forced to buy BTC; thus becoming a volatility amplifier.
As soon as the price changes, Delta changes (this is Gamma). To maintain a risk-neutral position, MMs must immediately buy or sell BTC spot (or futures) for hedging.
In a Long Gamma state, when the price drops, MMs buy BTC; when the price rises, they sell BTC to hedge; thus forming Gamma gravity. Conversely, in a Short Gamma state, when the price drops, MMs are forced to sell BTC; when the price rises, they are forced to buy BTC; thus becoming a volatility amplifier.
Those who grasp the essentials will be consistent!
For $BTC , I am long-term optimistic, but optimism does not mean blind faith. Taking a comprehensive view, staying rational and respecting objectivity is also my consistent principle. Whether the current market truly has the potential basis for a bull market does not change with my subjectivity, but is expressed by the real sentiment and confidence of all market participants through their actions...
So what is the true sentiment of the current market?
Let's carefully examine the following three sets of data together:
👉 2026.1.14 —— BTC price rebounded to $97,900;
Long-term holders (LTH) transferred 3,720 coins to exchanges.
So what is the true sentiment of the current market?
Let's carefully examine the following three sets of data together:
👉 2026.1.14 —— BTC price rebounded to $97,900;
Long-term holders (LTH) transferred 3,720 coins to exchanges.
The days of the 'landlord's family' may also be getting harder.
There is a data point that can indirectly reflect the current market activity - 'BTC's flow potential on exchanges'; it is measured by comparing
The monthly average of total inflow and outflow to exchanges (red line) compared to the annual average (green line) helps identify macro trend changes in exchange trading volume. After all, BTC represents the largest capital participation; if BTC is not doing well, then there’s no need to look at other ALTs.
When the monthly line is above the annual line, exchanges are bustling with activity, and players are actively engaged; conversely, it becomes desolate, and market sentiment is low. Therefore, we see that during periods when the monthly line is below the annual line, the price of BTC often performs poorly (as shown in Figure 1).
The monthly average of total inflow and outflow to exchanges (red line) compared to the annual average (green line) helps identify macro trend changes in exchange trading volume. After all, BTC represents the largest capital participation; if BTC is not doing well, then there’s no need to look at other ALTs.
When the monthly line is above the annual line, exchanges are bustling with activity, and players are actively engaged; conversely, it becomes desolate, and market sentiment is low. Therefore, we see that during periods when the monthly line is below the annual line, the price of BTC often performs poorly (as shown in Figure 1).
After reading the "Binance Research 2025 Review", I am more convinced of one thing: the biggest misjudgment risk in 2026 is not being bearish or bullish, but using a "typical bull/bear" template to understand it.
First, let's look at some key data:
In 2025, the total market cap of cryptocurrencies briefly surpassed $40 trillion, with $BTC maintaining a market share of 58–60% for an extended period. The net inflow of BTC spot ETFs was $21.3 billion, and corporate holdings exceeded 1.1 million BTC. These are all signals of structural strengthening.
On the other hand, the number of active addresses on the BTC chain dropped by 16% year-on-year, and transaction numbers and fees did not follow the price expansion; most altcoins continued to underperform, and capital did not overflow. What does this indicate? - $BTC is transitioning from a "trading network" to a "macro financial asset"; ETFs, treasury companies, and potential future sovereign strategic reserves are replacing retail investors and on-chain speculation, becoming the main pricing force.
This also explains why everyone has been waiting for the "certain season" that never arrives? Because this round is not an environment of "indiscriminate liquidity diffusion", but rather an atypical cycle characterized by highly concentrated capital and stratified risk appetite. Structurally, $BTC , stablecoins, RWAs, and a few agreements that can genuinely convert to cash flow are absorbing incremental funds, while a large number of assets that "only have narratives and no income" are being marginalized.
This is also why I believe 2026 is more likely to be a transition between bull and bear markets and a reason for the "atypical bear market structure". The "three policy engines" (fiscal stimulus + monetary easing + deregulation) that Binance reports repeatedly emphasize indeed provide upward space for risk assets, but this liquidity is not "broad-based"; instead, it resembles an environment that rewards certainty and punishes ambiguity.
This differentiation is already happening: the market cap of stablecoins has risen to $305B, with a daily settlement volume of $3.5T, nearly twice that of Visa; RWA TVL reached $17 billion, surpassing DEX for the first time; top DeFi annual protocol revenue was $16.2 billion, exceeding the combined annual revenue of NASDAQ and CME.
All of this indicates that funds are moving towards assets that are "quantifiable, compliant, and sustainable".
Therefore, 2026 may not be a full bull market, but it is also not necessarily a traditional bear market; it is more like a stage of clearing by old OGs + structural reshaping. What truly matters is to see which assets are being structurally increased and which are just prices being desperately supported.
This is not a cycle of emotions, but a cycle of funds!
First, let's look at some key data:
In 2025, the total market cap of cryptocurrencies briefly surpassed $40 trillion, with $BTC maintaining a market share of 58–60% for an extended period. The net inflow of BTC spot ETFs was $21.3 billion, and corporate holdings exceeded 1.1 million BTC. These are all signals of structural strengthening.
On the other hand, the number of active addresses on the BTC chain dropped by 16% year-on-year, and transaction numbers and fees did not follow the price expansion; most altcoins continued to underperform, and capital did not overflow. What does this indicate? - $BTC is transitioning from a "trading network" to a "macro financial asset"; ETFs, treasury companies, and potential future sovereign strategic reserves are replacing retail investors and on-chain speculation, becoming the main pricing force.
This also explains why everyone has been waiting for the "certain season" that never arrives? Because this round is not an environment of "indiscriminate liquidity diffusion", but rather an atypical cycle characterized by highly concentrated capital and stratified risk appetite. Structurally, $BTC , stablecoins, RWAs, and a few agreements that can genuinely convert to cash flow are absorbing incremental funds, while a large number of assets that "only have narratives and no income" are being marginalized.
This is also why I believe 2026 is more likely to be a transition between bull and bear markets and a reason for the "atypical bear market structure". The "three policy engines" (fiscal stimulus + monetary easing + deregulation) that Binance reports repeatedly emphasize indeed provide upward space for risk assets, but this liquidity is not "broad-based"; instead, it resembles an environment that rewards certainty and punishes ambiguity.
This differentiation is already happening: the market cap of stablecoins has risen to $305B, with a daily settlement volume of $3.5T, nearly twice that of Visa; RWA TVL reached $17 billion, surpassing DEX for the first time; top DeFi annual protocol revenue was $16.2 billion, exceeding the combined annual revenue of NASDAQ and CME.
All of this indicates that funds are moving towards assets that are "quantifiable, compliant, and sustainable".
Therefore, 2026 may not be a full bull market, but it is also not necessarily a traditional bear market; it is more like a stage of clearing by old OGs + structural reshaping. What truly matters is to see which assets are being structurally increased and which are just prices being desperately supported.
This is not a cycle of emotions, but a cycle of funds!
币安Binance华语
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📝2025 Blockchain Development Overview: Binance Annual Highlights
Documenting our key advancements over the past year in regulation, liquidity, Web3 exploration, institutional adoption, user protection, and everyday crypto applications.
2025 Highlights Overview:
🔹Binance product trading volume reached $34 trillion
🔹Alpha 2.0 trading volume exceeded $1 trillion, attracting 17 million users
🔹Successfully prevented potential fraud losses of $6.69 billion
🔹Supported over 20 million merchants via Binance Pay
👉阅读完整报告
Documenting our key advancements over the past year in regulation, liquidity, Web3 exploration, institutional adoption, user protection, and everyday crypto applications.
2025 Highlights Overview:
🔹Binance product trading volume reached $34 trillion
🔹Alpha 2.0 trading volume exceeded $1 trillion, attracting 17 million users
🔹Successfully prevented potential fraud losses of $6.69 billion
🔹Supported over 20 million merchants via Binance Pay
👉阅读完整报告
Rebound Peak or Bull Market Start???
At the end of 25, when I renewed my contract with the Glassnode team, they acknowledged my contributions to the Chinese community over the past year, especially granting me access to the 'proprietary signals' which were originally only available to institutional clients. To be honest, the content here is completely different from what I've seen in the past (too professional), so much so that after all this time, I still haven't fully understood it.
However, there is one indicator that I have observed to be quite effective for capturing the peak range of rebounds, and I want to share it with my friends! — Bitcoin Risk Signal (BRS)
However, there is one indicator that I have observed to be quite effective for capturing the peak range of rebounds, and I want to share it with my friends! — Bitcoin Risk Signal (BRS)
Surprise! Absolutely a surprise!
This is the biggest prize I've ever won in my life! Before this, the biggest prize I won was a precious "Chaoshan" toothpaste......
In the Binance Square "100 BNB Grand Challenge" event, phase two, my article was selected as "Daily Featured Content" and I won a prize of 1 BNB. Thank you, Binance
, thank you, Yingge, and the event judging team for your recognition!
Maybe it was just lucky......
In this article on "Funding Structure + Position Structure = Market Direction," I correctly predicted the support and resistance levels in advance; the view that "short-term downside is limited, while upside resistance is smaller" aligns perfectly with BTC's current rebound. This article, which was previously restricted on Twitter, has now been reborn on Binance Square.
In the Binance Square "100 BNB Grand Challenge" event, phase two, my article was selected as "Daily Featured Content" and I won a prize of 1 BNB. Thank you, Binance
, thank you, Yingge, and the event judging team for your recognition!
Maybe it was just lucky......
In this article on "Funding Structure + Position Structure = Market Direction," I correctly predicted the support and resistance levels in advance; the view that "short-term downside is limited, while upside resistance is smaller" aligns perfectly with BTC's current rebound. This article, which was previously restricted on Twitter, has now been reborn on Binance Square.
The script is unfolding exactly as expected! The deviation is only $123, but! Perhaps this will be an invisible chasm.
Historically, BTC has never easily crossed the short-term holder average cost line—regarded as the 'phase-based bull-bear dividing line'—during bull-to-bear transitions.
If we manage to break above it, we can regain bull market expectations; otherwise, the collective emotions and behaviors of all market participants will deliver a harsh truth — the bear market is here!
Thus, behind this $123 lies a distance separating heaven and hell...
Historically, BTC has never easily crossed the short-term holder average cost line—regarded as the 'phase-based bull-bear dividing line'—during bull-to-bear transitions.
If we manage to break above it, we can regain bull market expectations; otherwise, the collective emotions and behaviors of all market participants will deliver a harsh truth — the bear market is here!
Thus, behind this $123 lies a distance separating heaven and hell...
That day has finally come...
When I opened my stock account, which was nearly worn smooth by time,
checking which stocks hadn't risen yet to buy a little for protection,
I was surprised to find there was still an ETF I hadn't fully sold before,
unintentionally holding it for 460 days and making a 50% profit,
instantly moved to tears of excitement...
These 460 days I devoted myself entirely to pursuing Web3,
only to miss the true love right in front of me.
Planting flowers intentionally, they don't bloom; planting willows casually, they flourish...
A-shares, won't you deceive me again this time?
When I opened my stock account, which was nearly worn smooth by time,
checking which stocks hadn't risen yet to buy a little for protection,
I was surprised to find there was still an ETF I hadn't fully sold before,
unintentionally holding it for 460 days and making a 50% profit,
instantly moved to tears of excitement...
These 460 days I devoted myself entirely to pursuing Web3,
only to miss the true love right in front of me.
Planting flowers intentionally, they don't bloom; planting willows casually, they flourish...
A-shares, won't you deceive me again this time?
Even in 2026, if it's a 'bear market,' it will still be an 'atypical bear market'
In the tweet posted on December 10, 2025, we calculated that the BTC price would need to drop to $62,000 (see citation) at that time to bring PSIP below 50%. The previous calculation on November 20 showed that the price would need to fall to $59,000 to achieve the same. Yesterday, I recalculated and the result remained $62,000.
The implication is that between November 20 and December 10, a large amount of low-cost holdings were swapped to high-cost positions (profit-taking), raising the overall cost basis. From December 10 to January 12, the volume of low-to-high swaps significantly decreased, and the overall cost basis remained almost unchanged, hence still $62,000.
The implication is that between November 20 and December 10, a large amount of low-cost holdings were swapped to high-cost positions (profit-taking), raising the overall cost basis. From December 10 to January 12, the volume of low-to-high swaps significantly decreased, and the overall cost basis remained almost unchanged, hence still $62,000.
$BTC The dollar value of the average on-chain transaction per transaction rose from $24,897 per transaction on December 30, 2025, to $41,338 per transaction on January 13, 2026.
The liquidity that seemingly disappeared due to holidays is now returning! Large funds are beginning to participate in turnover, signaling the start of new market dynamics in 2026......
The liquidity that seemingly disappeared due to holidays is now returning! Large funds are beginning to participate in turnover, signaling the start of new market dynamics in 2026......
Funding Structure + Position Structure = Market Direction
The option Gamma exposure (GEX) essentially tells us: when BTC price fluctuates, do option market makers 'help stabilize the price' or 'are forced to follow the price movement'? Market makers (MMs) typically don't bet on direction, but earn from spreads. After selling/buying options, they become exposed to changes in Delta and Gamma.
As soon as the price changes, Delta changes (this is Gamma). To maintain a risk-neutral position, MMs must immediately buy or sell BTC spot (or futures) for hedging.
In a Long Gamma state, when the price drops, MMs buy BTC; when the price rises, they sell BTC to hedge; thus forming Gamma gravity. Conversely, in a Short Gamma state, when the price drops, MMs are forced to sell BTC; when the price rises, they are forced to buy BTC; thus becoming a volatility amplifier.
As soon as the price changes, Delta changes (this is Gamma). To maintain a risk-neutral position, MMs must immediately buy or sell BTC spot (or futures) for hedging.
In a Long Gamma state, when the price drops, MMs buy BTC; when the price rises, they sell BTC to hedge; thus forming Gamma gravity. Conversely, in a Short Gamma state, when the price drops, MMs are forced to sell BTC; when the price rises, they are forced to buy BTC; thus becoming a volatility amplifier.
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