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I bind and edit. Sometimes I write, the rest of the time I concentrate on reading. You help me level up.
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CONFESSIONS OF A NOVICE TRADER XIV: HOW I WENT FROM BLIND FAITH TO MATHEMATICAL HOPE
IF YOU STILL WONDER Will today be my lucky day? And you go and open a GRAPH with a NEGATIVE EXPECTATION* but with an UNBREAKABLE FAITH, getting the same results over and over again: LOSSES. Let me tell you that you are not alone.
The reality is that many traders make the same mistake: believing that trading is a matter of chance or instinct. But, is it really like that? Is it possible to face the market without a structured plan and come out victorious? Spoiler: it is not.
The reality is that many traders make the same mistake: believing that trading is a matter of chance or instinct. But, is it really like that? Is it possible to face the market without a structured plan and come out victorious? Spoiler: it is not.
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CONFESSIONS OF A NOVICE TRADER XIII: FROM LOSING IT ALL TO UNDERSTANDING THE GAME
Trading, system, Bitcoin
Have you ever sat in front of a chart, with a mix of excitement and anxiety, thinking you were about to change your life forever? I have.
And I want to tell you how that fantasy of easy money brought me to the brink of madness, and how, after many setbacks, I learned something valuable that might help you on your own path.
The Deception of Easy Money
Let's not fool ourselves: what drew us to trading, like bees to a hive, was the promise of easy money. I also fell into that trap. I confused how simple it was to place an order with how easy it would be to make money.
Have you ever sat in front of a chart, with a mix of excitement and anxiety, thinking you were about to change your life forever? I have.
And I want to tell you how that fantasy of easy money brought me to the brink of madness, and how, after many setbacks, I learned something valuable that might help you on your own path.
The Deception of Easy Money
Let's not fool ourselves: what drew us to trading, like bees to a hive, was the promise of easy money. I also fell into that trap. I confused how simple it was to place an order with how easy it would be to make money.
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CONFESSIONS OF A NOVICE TRADER XVI: THE DAY I UNDERSTOOD THAT LUCK DOES NOT EXIST
#bitcoin
That day, EVERYTHING CHANGED. I find it hard to admit, but I was one of those who desperately sought the secret formula for success, and I was waiting for LUCK, that miraculous technical indicator that could somehow encapsulate all the beauty of the dreamed profitability.
Like every morning, true to the discipline of being punctual in front of my screen (9:30 a.m. New York time), I was drawing plans, lines, and rectangles on the multiple charts of the American market, just to feel satisfied in my need for control over something I barely knew (a commercial pilot without a runway and without a plane).
That day, EVERYTHING CHANGED. I find it hard to admit, but I was one of those who desperately sought the secret formula for success, and I was waiting for LUCK, that miraculous technical indicator that could somehow encapsulate all the beauty of the dreamed profitability.
Like every morning, true to the discipline of being punctual in front of my screen (9:30 a.m. New York time), I was drawing plans, lines, and rectangles on the multiple charts of the American market, just to feel satisfied in my need for control over something I barely knew (a commercial pilot without a runway and without a plane).
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CONFESSIONS OF A NOVICE TRADER XV: THE PATHS OF TRADING ARE NOT AS I IMAGINED...
#trading
I CONFESS that I always waited for THAT TRADE THAT WOULD MAKE ME A MILLIONAIRE and regardless of the math not adding up, I SEARCHED FOR IT LIKE THE HOLY GRAIL. I CONFESS that I fell into the VILE TRAP of high Leverage, cheap COINS (SHITCOIN), and the quick movements that only LEFT ME DRY... I always wondered what successful traders saw that I didn't, why they were winning while I kept seeing red numbers.
I CONFESS that I ALWAYS WANTED TO HAVE THAT GREEN LOGBOOK AND SHOW IT AS A SYMBOL OF HAVING DEFEATED THE MARKET.
I CONFESS that I always waited for THAT TRADE THAT WOULD MAKE ME A MILLIONAIRE and regardless of the math not adding up, I SEARCHED FOR IT LIKE THE HOLY GRAIL. I CONFESS that I fell into the VILE TRAP of high Leverage, cheap COINS (SHITCOIN), and the quick movements that only LEFT ME DRY... I always wondered what successful traders saw that I didn't, why they were winning while I kept seeing red numbers.
I CONFESS that I ALWAYS WANTED TO HAVE THAT GREEN LOGBOOK AND SHOW IT AS A SYMBOL OF HAVING DEFEATED THE MARKET.
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BEAR MARKET OR CORRECTION IN BITCOIN?
#BearMarke
This FALL IN BITCOIN AND THE CONSEQUENT ALARMS THAT EVERYTHING HAS GONE TO M. REMEMBER THAT in 1929, in the midst of the Great Depression, Joseph P. Kennedy, a shrewd American investor, experienced a moment that would change everything.
While polishing shoes, the shoeshiner, who had no experience in markets, advised him to sell all his stocks because "everything was going badly".
This advice, far from alarming him, was a key signal for Kennedy. When everyone has an opinion (and they are not experts), the market is at its turning point.
This FALL IN BITCOIN AND THE CONSEQUENT ALARMS THAT EVERYTHING HAS GONE TO M. REMEMBER THAT in 1929, in the midst of the Great Depression, Joseph P. Kennedy, a shrewd American investor, experienced a moment that would change everything.
While polishing shoes, the shoeshiner, who had no experience in markets, advised him to sell all his stocks because "everything was going badly".
This advice, far from alarming him, was a key signal for Kennedy. When everyone has an opinion (and they are not experts), the market is at its turning point.
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HACK THE PRICE: HOW TO INTERPRET THE INVISIBLE MOVEMENTS OF THE MARKET IN YOUR FAVOR
#MarketRebound
Do you think price is just a number on the screen? Think again.
Price is the secret language of the markets, a chaotic oracle that hides patterns, cycles, traps, and opportunities.
If you are a retail trader and want to stop being the prey to become the predator, you need to understand price from its guts: trends, cycles, heavy tails, and above all, how to leverage these fundamentals to hack your statistics.
Here are the hacks that no one dared to write.
Do you think price is just a number on the screen? Think again.
Price is the secret language of the markets, a chaotic oracle that hides patterns, cycles, traps, and opportunities.
If you are a retail trader and want to stop being the prey to become the predator, you need to understand price from its guts: trends, cycles, heavy tails, and above all, how to leverage these fundamentals to hack your statistics.
Here are the hacks that no one dared to write.
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3 BRUTAL TRADING LESSONS THAT ONLY A SCAMMER COULD TEACH YOU
#MarketRebound
Are you playing to win... or just to not lose?
The true scammer is not that guy in a cheap suit with promises of magical returns. The true scammer is that little voice in your head that paralyzes you, that makes you watch opportunities pass by while you only worry about not losing the little you have.
How many times have you let fear steal your play? How many times have you preferred to stay still, instead of risking to truly win?
The biggest scam is not the one done to you from the outside, but the one you do to yourself every time you give up too soon, every time you prefer the 'security' of not losing to the real possibility of winning. Because in trading, as in life, those who play just to avoid losing... are already losing. Ready to discover the lessons that only a true scammer (or your worst internal enemy) could teach you?
Are you playing to win... or just to not lose?
The true scammer is not that guy in a cheap suit with promises of magical returns. The true scammer is that little voice in your head that paralyzes you, that makes you watch opportunities pass by while you only worry about not losing the little you have.
How many times have you let fear steal your play? How many times have you preferred to stay still, instead of risking to truly win?
The biggest scam is not the one done to you from the outside, but the one you do to yourself every time you give up too soon, every time you prefer the 'security' of not losing to the real possibility of winning. Because in trading, as in life, those who play just to avoid losing... are already losing. Ready to discover the lessons that only a true scammer (or your worst internal enemy) could teach you?
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BITCOIN, BIASES, AND SURVIVAL: THE REAL PSYCHOLOGY OF PROFITABLE TRADING
#CryptoMarketAnalysis
Do you want to know why novice traders lose millions while institutions laugh from their VIP seats?
The reality of trading is different: while everyone rushes after headlines and rumors, the big players simply watch as billions disappear in seconds. Just last week, record liquidations surpassed 19 billion dollars in leverage after the fall of #bitcoin .
Are you ready to stop being part of the crowd and start playing seriously?
Do you want to know why novice traders lose millions while institutions laugh from their VIP seats?
The reality of trading is different: while everyone rushes after headlines and rumors, the big players simply watch as billions disappear in seconds. Just last week, record liquidations surpassed 19 billion dollars in leverage after the fall of #bitcoin .
Are you ready to stop being part of the crowd and start playing seriously?
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ARE YOU THE TYPE THAT LEARNS BY READING OR DO YOU NEED TO URINATE ON THE ELECTRIC FENCE?
#bitcoin
“There are three types of people: those who learn by reading, those who learn by observing, and those who have to urinate on the electric fence by themselves.” Munger
Can you guess what type I was? Exactly: the third one. I learned the hard way, figuratively speaking, through shocks and hits. I discovered that trading is not learned from books or by watching others trade. It is learned by losing money and understanding why you lost it. The market gives you no respite. It will take everything from you before giving you anything.
“There are three types of people: those who learn by reading, those who learn by observing, and those who have to urinate on the electric fence by themselves.” Munger
Can you guess what type I was? Exactly: the third one. I learned the hard way, figuratively speaking, through shocks and hits. I discovered that trading is not learned from books or by watching others trade. It is learned by losing money and understanding why you lost it. The market gives you no respite. It will take everything from you before giving you anything.
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The trader mentioned in this post is in X as mariellangsaez
I require information
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CONFESSIONS OF A NOVICE TRADER XV: HOW I WENT FROM BEING CONSISTENTLY STUPID TO TRADING WITH RULES
#CryptoMarketAnalysis
Intuition does not work for trading. Rules do.
It doesn't matter how sharp you think your instinct is; if you rely on gut feelings or that 'sense' that the market is going to move in a certain direction, you are playing a dangerous game. The reason? Markets are not a casino (although they may seem like one to many). Money flows from impatient hands to patient hands, from those without a plan to those with a clear strategy.
The ruthless logic of the market
Intuition does not work for trading. Rules do.
It doesn't matter how sharp you think your instinct is; if you rely on gut feelings or that 'sense' that the market is going to move in a certain direction, you are playing a dangerous game. The reason? Markets are not a casino (although they may seem like one to many). Money flows from impatient hands to patient hands, from those without a plan to those with a clear strategy.
The ruthless logic of the market
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Bullish
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Live Gifts are now live on Binance Square, and the best part? Zero fees!
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What are you waiting for? LFG! 🚀
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The Powell period culminates in May 2026
Cointelegraph
--
Bitcoin’s ‘biggest bull catalyst’ may be the next Fed chair pick: Novogratz
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz said Bitcoin’s price could see a significant rally if the next US Federal Reserve chair nominee to replace Jerome Powell is exceptionally dovish.
“That’s the potential biggest bull catalyst for Bitcoin and the rest of crypto,” Novogratz said in an interview with Kyle Chasse published to YouTube on Friday.
“Fed’s cutting when they shouldn’t be, and you put in a massive dove,” Novogratz said, adding that may lead to “your blow-off top” moment for Bitcoin (BTC).
“Can Bitcoin get to $200K? Of course it could…Because it becomes a whole new conversation if that happens.”
Novogratz emphasized that while the potential scenario of aggressive rate cutting would be bullish for crypto, it would come at a steep cost. “Do I want it to happen? No. Why? Because I kind of love America,” he said.
Novogratz says it will not be a good scenario for the US
“It would be really shitty for America,” he said, adding that it is possible the Fed is going to lose independence.
A dovish stance from the Federal Reserve is generally anticipated to weaken the US dollar. However, it is often perceived as a bullish catalyst for Bitcoin and other risk assets, as traditional assets such as bonds and term deposits become less lucrative to investors.
Bitcoin is trading at $109,450 at the time of publication. Source: CoinMarketCap
Echoing a similar sentiment to Novogratz, Daleep Singh, vice chair and chief global economist at PGIM Fixed Income, recently said, “There’s a very decent chance that the FOMC looks and acts quite differently” after Powell’s term expires in May 2026.
“On a cyclical basis, I think the risks to the dollar are skewed to the downside,” Singh added.
Novogratz says it may trigger an “oh shit moment”
Novogratz warned that if Trump follows through on his pledge to appoint “a dove,” it could trigger an “oh shit moment.”
“Gold skyrockets…Bitcoin skyrockets,” Novogratz said.
“It was priced in that he was going to pick somebody dovey, but no one is quite sure,” he added.
Novogratz said the potential scenario probably won’t be reflected in the market until the decision is officially announced. “I don’t think the market will buy that Trump’s going to do the crazy, until he does the crazy,” Novogratz said.
Trump has reportedly narrowed his shortlist for the next Federal Reserve chair to three candidates: White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller and former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh.
“You could say those are the top three,” Trump told reporters at the Oval Office on Sept. 6.
The Fed delivered its first rate cut of 25 basis points in September, a move largely anticipated by the market, but Waller had been urging for a rate cut in July.
Magazine: ‘Help! My robot vac is stealing my Bitcoin’: When smart devices attack
“That’s the potential biggest bull catalyst for Bitcoin and the rest of crypto,” Novogratz said in an interview with Kyle Chasse published to YouTube on Friday.
“Fed’s cutting when they shouldn’t be, and you put in a massive dove,” Novogratz said, adding that may lead to “your blow-off top” moment for Bitcoin (BTC).
“Can Bitcoin get to $200K? Of course it could…Because it becomes a whole new conversation if that happens.”
Novogratz emphasized that while the potential scenario of aggressive rate cutting would be bullish for crypto, it would come at a steep cost. “Do I want it to happen? No. Why? Because I kind of love America,” he said.
Novogratz says it will not be a good scenario for the US
“It would be really shitty for America,” he said, adding that it is possible the Fed is going to lose independence.
A dovish stance from the Federal Reserve is generally anticipated to weaken the US dollar. However, it is often perceived as a bullish catalyst for Bitcoin and other risk assets, as traditional assets such as bonds and term deposits become less lucrative to investors.
Bitcoin is trading at $109,450 at the time of publication. Source: CoinMarketCap
Echoing a similar sentiment to Novogratz, Daleep Singh, vice chair and chief global economist at PGIM Fixed Income, recently said, “There’s a very decent chance that the FOMC looks and acts quite differently” after Powell’s term expires in May 2026.
“On a cyclical basis, I think the risks to the dollar are skewed to the downside,” Singh added.
Novogratz says it may trigger an “oh shit moment”
Novogratz warned that if Trump follows through on his pledge to appoint “a dove,” it could trigger an “oh shit moment.”
“Gold skyrockets…Bitcoin skyrockets,” Novogratz said.
“It was priced in that he was going to pick somebody dovey, but no one is quite sure,” he added.
Novogratz said the potential scenario probably won’t be reflected in the market until the decision is officially announced. “I don’t think the market will buy that Trump’s going to do the crazy, until he does the crazy,” Novogratz said.
Trump has reportedly narrowed his shortlist for the next Federal Reserve chair to three candidates: White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller and former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh.
“You could say those are the top three,” Trump told reporters at the Oval Office on Sept. 6.
The Fed delivered its first rate cut of 25 basis points in September, a move largely anticipated by the market, but Waller had been urging for a rate cut in July.
Magazine: ‘Help! My robot vac is stealing my Bitcoin’: When smart devices attack
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CONFESSIONS OF A NOVICE TRADER XII: THE CRISIS THAT ALMOST TOOK MY LAST $50
I love Bitcoin
THE STORY THAT WILL MAKE YOU RETHINK YOUR PATH AS A TRADER
Mark Twain once said, "History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes." If you don't understand the weight of those words yet, it's probably because you haven't faced trading, or maybe life hasn't hit you hard enough yet.
But, believe me, when you do, you'll understand the brutal truth behind them.
I've been away, I know. But it wasn't in vain. What I have to tell you isn't just my story, it's a warning. It's raw, it's heartbreaking, and you might not
THE STORY THAT WILL MAKE YOU RETHINK YOUR PATH AS A TRADER
Mark Twain once said, "History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes." If you don't understand the weight of those words yet, it's probably because you haven't faced trading, or maybe life hasn't hit you hard enough yet.
But, believe me, when you do, you'll understand the brutal truth behind them.
I've been away, I know. But it wasn't in vain. What I have to tell you isn't just my story, it's a warning. It's raw, it's heartbreaking, and you might not
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If you think you are the smartest person in the room, you have a problem. There will always be someone better than you; the important thing is to know that your greatest competition is yourself and your greatest risk is ignoring that.
These are times for reading 🫀
These are times for reading 🫀
BTCUSD CM
Perp
See original
Today I learned a hard lesson in TRADING and I share my learning that I hope will help you for the REST OF YOUR DAYS IN THIS BUSINESS:
After taking too many hits, losses, and exploring other businesses and paths, I arrived at a LESSON that is better learned quickly: no other activity teaches you about life... and even death itself like TRADING. Trading, with its brutal honesty, constantly confronts you with your mistakes, and it does so without pauses, without concessions to machismo, forcing you to accept the responsibility for each decision without the option to postpone it.
It is an unyielding mirror that allows no excuses, and in that process, it prepares you to face the inevitable: loss, change, and the end of things as you know them.
Making mistakes over and over again, and PAYING THE PRICE without setbacks, teaches you HUMILITY, PATIENCE, and, above all, RESILIENCE (getting up so quickly that the ground becomes your greatest friend and your worst enemy). Trading is not just a technical or economic challenge; it is an internal battle against your FEARS, your IMPULSES, and your EGO.
Every fall forces you to rise with more strength, to rethink strategies, to accept that uncertainty is a constant in life.
And it is there where its true teaching lies: learning to live with uncertainty, with the possibility of failure, while continuing to move forward.
I intend to stay as long as necessary, working like Sisyphus, pushing that rock uphill over and over again, not for the final result, but for what is found along the way.
Whether all this uncertainty and effort has been worth it will not depend solely on reaching the summit, but on what transforms me in the process. And perhaps, in the end, that is also a VALUABLE LESSON FOR YOU: learning to accept impermanence (THE CHAOS) and still continue betting on life.
If trading has left you with a hard lesson, it is time to share it with everyone without holding ANYTHING INSIDE 💪
These are times for reading. #BitcoinForever
After taking too many hits, losses, and exploring other businesses and paths, I arrived at a LESSON that is better learned quickly: no other activity teaches you about life... and even death itself like TRADING. Trading, with its brutal honesty, constantly confronts you with your mistakes, and it does so without pauses, without concessions to machismo, forcing you to accept the responsibility for each decision without the option to postpone it.
It is an unyielding mirror that allows no excuses, and in that process, it prepares you to face the inevitable: loss, change, and the end of things as you know them.
Making mistakes over and over again, and PAYING THE PRICE without setbacks, teaches you HUMILITY, PATIENCE, and, above all, RESILIENCE (getting up so quickly that the ground becomes your greatest friend and your worst enemy). Trading is not just a technical or economic challenge; it is an internal battle against your FEARS, your IMPULSES, and your EGO.
Every fall forces you to rise with more strength, to rethink strategies, to accept that uncertainty is a constant in life.
And it is there where its true teaching lies: learning to live with uncertainty, with the possibility of failure, while continuing to move forward.
I intend to stay as long as necessary, working like Sisyphus, pushing that rock uphill over and over again, not for the final result, but for what is found along the way.
Whether all this uncertainty and effort has been worth it will not depend solely on reaching the summit, but on what transforms me in the process. And perhaps, in the end, that is also a VALUABLE LESSON FOR YOU: learning to accept impermanence (THE CHAOS) and still continue betting on life.
If trading has left you with a hard lesson, it is time to share it with everyone without holding ANYTHING INSIDE 💪
These are times for reading. #BitcoinForever
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Good traders apply every ounce of intelligence in creating their systems, and then they are relentless in following them. You need to have a schizoid approach. Work like a demon to get it right and then ignore it as if you were a brick wall. This was said by Richard Dennis.
Don't focus on the money you can make or lose; seeing money as a way to keep score, like a marker of your batting average, is the best option to keep your head on your shoulders and your brain making the best decisions, but first you have to have failed many times and still want to get it right.
Traders tend to be self-destructive; take advantage of that in your favor. The problem is not NOT having "privileged" information; the problem is how to use the information you already have differently.
It is time to read.
Don't focus on the money you can make or lose; seeing money as a way to keep score, like a marker of your batting average, is the best option to keep your head on your shoulders and your brain making the best decisions, but first you have to have failed many times and still want to get it right.
Traders tend to be self-destructive; take advantage of that in your favor. The problem is not NOT having "privileged" information; the problem is how to use the information you already have differently.
It is time to read.
S
BTC/USDT
Price
110,148
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🎲LUCK OR MATHEMATICS: WHY BUYING LOW AND SELLING HIGH NO LONGER WORKS?
Trader
Many novice and not-so-novice traders fall into the trap of following the old scheme of "buy when the market drops and sell when it rises." Perhaps at some point it worked because it is relatively easy for the market masses to apply, however, this does not represent the return that could be expected to live off trading.
Furthermore, although it sounds logical, this simplistic strategy can lead to significant losses in the long run. Why? Because it does not take into account key factors such as the risk and expected return of the assets. Choosing assets at random or relying solely on emotions can be a direct path to failure.
Many novice and not-so-novice traders fall into the trap of following the old scheme of "buy when the market drops and sell when it rises." Perhaps at some point it worked because it is relatively easy for the market masses to apply, however, this does not represent the return that could be expected to live off trading.
Furthermore, although it sounds logical, this simplistic strategy can lead to significant losses in the long run. Why? Because it does not take into account key factors such as the risk and expected return of the assets. Choosing assets at random or relying solely on emotions can be a direct path to failure.
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THE CERTAINTY OF ERROR: REAL TRADING EVEN IF IT HURTS
TRADER
In trading, one of the most common mistakes is not in the markets, the charts, or the numbers, but in OUR OWN MIND. And the worst part is that many times we are unable to see it. Daniel Kahneman, psychologist and Nobel Prize in Economics, left us a key teaching: we struggle to admit mistakes because it forces us to abandon the safety of our beliefs, even when they no longer serve us.
It's curious, isn't it? We prefer to cling to what feels familiar, even if it is leading us to failure, because change scares us. The fear of the unknown—of stepping out of our mental comfort zone—paralyzes us, even when we know that the path we are following is leading us to ruin.
In trading, one of the most common mistakes is not in the markets, the charts, or the numbers, but in OUR OWN MIND. And the worst part is that many times we are unable to see it. Daniel Kahneman, psychologist and Nobel Prize in Economics, left us a key teaching: we struggle to admit mistakes because it forces us to abandon the safety of our beliefs, even when they no longer serve us.
It's curious, isn't it? We prefer to cling to what feels familiar, even if it is leading us to failure, because change scares us. The fear of the unknown—of stepping out of our mental comfort zone—paralyzes us, even when we know that the path we are following is leading us to ruin.
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Data-Driven Trading: Richard Dennis's Secret Formula for Winning
RICHARD DENNIS
Let's be honest, aren't you tired of investing in someone else's beach house? Of seeing how your money pays for the Lambo of someone who boasts on social media that they know how to trade, all with your money.
Now to the point, how to change from being an obligated donor in the markets, and I believe you didn't know this story...
Do you know the trading legend who transformed the trading game FOREVER in the 80s?
He started with $400 from his father and transformed it into more than $200 million, thanks to his vision.
Let's be honest, aren't you tired of investing in someone else's beach house? Of seeing how your money pays for the Lambo of someone who boasts on social media that they know how to trade, all with your money.
Now to the point, how to change from being an obligated donor in the markets, and I believe you didn't know this story...
Do you know the trading legend who transformed the trading game FOREVER in the 80s?
He started with $400 from his father and transformed it into more than $200 million, thanks to his vision.
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