Latest Macro: Is This the "Last Rate Cut" During Powell's Tenure? How Should the Crypto Market View It?
According to ChainCatcher, Charlie Ripley, Vice President of Allianz Investment Management, stated that the Federal Reserve has entered a difficult balancing range of "employment vs inflation," and this rate cut may be the last during Powell's tenure. As a result, the market has strengthened an expectation: the further easing space for monetary policy may be limited in the future.
What does this mean for the crypto market?
First, the rate cut itself is beneficial for liquidity and theoretically will enhance risk appetite. However, the signals conveyed by “only this cut” and “the end of the rate-cutting cycle” are entirely different: liquidity may improve in the short term, but there is uncertainty about whether this can be sustained in the medium term. Therefore, the market is likely to lean toward fluctuations rather than a one-sided trend.
Second, a weaker dollar is usually beneficial for crypto assets, but if the dollar falls while the fundamentals weaken (for example, cooling employment, economic slowdown), the crypto market may face pressure. In other words, the direction of crypto depends more on macro risk appetite rather than simply on interest rate changes.
Third, institutional fund flows will become the core variable. The net inflow/outflow of Bitcoin ETFs has replaced the simple logic of rate cuts and has become the dominant force in price trends. If policies are no longer clearly easing, institutional allocations will be more cautious; if ETFs cannot sustain net inflows, the height of crypto rebounds will be limited.
Strategy Suggestions for Traders:
Mainstream coins (BTC/ETH) remain the most efficient risk allocations, focus on opportunities to buy on dips.
Small-cap assets are more susceptible to macro uncertainty shocks, so positions must be light and cycles shorter.
Three key indicators must be closely monitored: ETF fund flows, the US dollar index (DXY), perpetual contract funding rates/OI.
If employment data weakens but the Fed does not continue to cut rates, be wary of a decline in overall market risk appetite.
In summary:
This rate cut is not the "beginning of a comprehensive easing," but rather more like a "cautious one-time release." Moving forward, the direction of the crypto market will be jointly determined by "macro data + institutional fund flows," rather than solely by the rate cut itself. $BNB #美联储降息
