Sober 期权工作室
期权教学 | 公众号: Sober聊交易 | 推特@Amy6Tina ；CFA 持证人 | 深度期权玩家 | 点赞和转发，是对我最大的支持
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The "Sober Chat Options" planet has been operating for 125 days. What have I done?
First of all, I would like to thank these more than 130 friends for their support so that this knowledge planet can continue to operate.
1. What was my original intention that led me to open Knowledge Planet?
The original intention of starting Planet was that I found that I had written free articles before, but there was no response or interaction in my tweets or in my circle of friends. At the same time, there are some opportunities or strategies that do not have such large capital capacity and dare not publicly call for orders on Twitter. So I opened a planet and told everyone about it quietly. This TLT directly allowed everyone to trade the risk reversal strategy (see the picture below, bullish, the bottom area is obvious)
I made 10 times the profit in about one month.
At that time, I really felt that my investment knowledge was monetized, and products with high certainty like U.S. bonds had a guaranteed bottom line. With this kind of profit-loss ratio opportunity, "it is really fun to lead everyone to make money."
The initial planet price was 299, and the first batch of friends who came in all earned at least 30 years of planet fees.
Later, I felt that the platform of Planet was quite interesting. There were many things that were difficult to say on a public platform, or if you said that no one would respond to you, it was really good. What I said was rich in knowledge, and it was a platform that was even better than Binance Square or Twitter. Rich platform.
In these 125 days, Planet has many more valuable things than Twitter and WeChat group chats, with a total of 203 articles.
Covers: Mosaic, macro, US stocks + US bonds, big A, in-depth articles.
The price has also increased from 299 at the beginning to 699 now.
2. What have I done in these four months?
As shown in the picture above, these 203 articles cover 3 major markets. Tiezi who posted the article knows that the main content I share on Twitter is encryption. In fact, my big A and US stocks are not idle at all. You can read my article The distribution is known.
Initially, it was more about sharing crypto opportunities to cater to fellow stars on the planet, but in fact, considering that I am a big A person who transferred from traditional finance and U.S. stocks, I am actually better at many targets. Since everyone comes to the capital market, they all make money, and big Most players also have decentralized configurations, so good wealth passwords should be shared with players who recognize them, so I will try my best to share as much as I can.
Several specific typical operating opportunities
①When I started doing Planet in October, it happened to be the Yazhan Options Trading Competition.
Conducted 3 live broadcasts (and recordings at the same time) for novice options players, telling them how to become proficient in basic options operations in a short period of time; at the same time, the team won the second place in the deribit option competition team.
Everyone probably got 300-500 US dollars.
② From October to December, we took everyone to seize the opportunity of 20-year U.S. bonds.
I repeatedly remind everyone to get on the spot in the range of 83-87 US dollars, and use the risk reversal strategy to earn call-side profits with small profits and big profits. In this wave, even if it is now US$93, the spot income is 12% (and there are dividends every month); the option income is 8-10 times.
③ Perform long gamma operations on Bingtangcheng and Auntai.
I have been prompted several times about long rock sugar orange gamma’s bull market spread opportunities, and the profit-loss ratio is always 10 to 1;
In addition, before the Spring Festival, I would like to remind everyone to study the fundamentals of Auntai. The effect of this round of supplementary increase will be very strong, and three strategies are suggested.
Put spread, risk reversal, and diagnal spread are all bullish strategies.
④ Prompts some risks
Pitfall avoidance guide, respectively prompting DMA sharing and quantifying private equity fund risks
⑤ Long A-share CSI 300 call on February 2
It was more than 2,600 points at that time. When the A-share market was at its most desperate, it prompted us to start a long call.
3. What will I do next?
I will talk to you in depth about my old profession. The asset allocation series is an important series this year. In investment, many people are entangled in tactical aspects, such as macro analysis, industry research, individual stock selection, and specific strategies. Factor dismantling. It requires not only macro-level strategic timing, but also micro-level breakdown of each manager's specific strategies as if they are crystal clear, and doing a bunch of things with a low winning rate.
However, it is very lazy strategically, and has not even established an asset allocation framework with a high winning rate.
Therefore, we hope to use more than 5-10 articles to help everyone clearly build an asset allocation framework.
At least the strategy should be clear first so that no one makes big mistakes. At present, the update is basically completed, and we will continue to check for leaks and fill in the gaps in the future. We will also slowly lead everyone to continue to build their own framework in actual combat.
4. Option practice
I will further carry out various online and offline teachings so that everyone can better understand option strategies in a practical way.
Options private training class is a practical product line developed by me.
5. Why do prices continue to rise?
Why continue to increase prices?
If a good investment strategy has limited capacity, the manager must give priority to the best investors. The best investors are the old friends who gave you help when you were broke in the early days of your business.
When you join the planet, we will find ways to get you value that far exceeds the planet fee. Our energy is limited and we don’t want too many people to join. We only want to provide value to those who recognize us the most.
The old guys who joined Planet in the early days of its establishment, when there was no content, are the ones who support us the most and trust us. We must give them more preferential treatment.
The current fee is 699 yuan per year. How can we get more than 100,000 yuan or even more than one million in value? After thinking about it, we decided to remove the above content and add the following rights to Planet viewers:
Write at the end:
Friends who are waiting for planet discounts, don’t wait. Our principle is that we cannot let new members have lower prices than any old members. (If I have the marketing energy, I might as well write research reports. I’m not good at operations and fan building)
It is now 699 yuan, and it was 299 yuan at the earliest; there is a high probability that the price will still increase in the future, and this increase is much higher than that of other major types of assets.
It is recommended that players with relatively large investable assets join before joining, as they hope to provide value that far exceeds the planet fee.
Our planet is an investment, not a consumption.
#BTC
First of all, I would like to thank these more than 130 friends for their support so that this knowledge planet can continue to operate.
1. What was my original intention that led me to open Knowledge Planet?
The original intention of starting Planet was that I found that I had written free articles before, but there was no response or interaction in my tweets or in my circle of friends. At the same time, there are some opportunities or strategies that do not have such large capital capacity and dare not publicly call for orders on Twitter. So I opened a planet and told everyone about it quietly. This TLT directly allowed everyone to trade the risk reversal strategy (see the picture below, bullish, the bottom area is obvious)
I made 10 times the profit in about one month.
At that time, I really felt that my investment knowledge was monetized, and products with high certainty like U.S. bonds had a guaranteed bottom line. With this kind of profit-loss ratio opportunity, "it is really fun to lead everyone to make money."
The initial planet price was 299, and the first batch of friends who came in all earned at least 30 years of planet fees.
Later, I felt that the platform of Planet was quite interesting. There were many things that were difficult to say on a public platform, or if you said that no one would respond to you, it was really good. What I said was rich in knowledge, and it was a platform that was even better than Binance Square or Twitter. Rich platform.
In these 125 days, Planet has many more valuable things than Twitter and WeChat group chats, with a total of 203 articles.
Covers: Mosaic, macro, US stocks + US bonds, big A, in-depth articles.
The price has also increased from 299 at the beginning to 699 now.
2. What have I done in these four months?
As shown in the picture above, these 203 articles cover 3 major markets. Tiezi who posted the article knows that the main content I share on Twitter is encryption. In fact, my big A and US stocks are not idle at all. You can read my article The distribution is known.
Initially, it was more about sharing crypto opportunities to cater to fellow stars on the planet, but in fact, considering that I am a big A person who transferred from traditional finance and U.S. stocks, I am actually better at many targets. Since everyone comes to the capital market, they all make money, and big Most players also have decentralized configurations, so good wealth passwords should be shared with players who recognize them, so I will try my best to share as much as I can.
Several specific typical operating opportunities
①When I started doing Planet in October, it happened to be the Yazhan Options Trading Competition.
Conducted 3 live broadcasts (and recordings at the same time) for novice options players, telling them how to become proficient in basic options operations in a short period of time; at the same time, the team won the second place in the deribit option competition team.
Everyone probably got 300-500 US dollars.
② From October to December, we took everyone to seize the opportunity of 20-year U.S. bonds.
I repeatedly remind everyone to get on the spot in the range of 83-87 US dollars, and use the risk reversal strategy to earn call-side profits with small profits and big profits. In this wave, even if it is now US$93, the spot income is 12% (and there are dividends every month); the option income is 8-10 times.
③ Perform long gamma operations on Bingtangcheng and Auntai.
I have been prompted several times about long rock sugar orange gamma’s bull market spread opportunities, and the profit-loss ratio is always 10 to 1;
In addition, before the Spring Festival, I would like to remind everyone to study the fundamentals of Auntai. The effect of this round of supplementary increase will be very strong, and three strategies are suggested.
Put spread, risk reversal, and diagnal spread are all bullish strategies.
④ Prompts some risks
Pitfall avoidance guide, respectively prompting DMA sharing and quantifying private equity fund risks
⑤ Long A-share CSI 300 call on February 2
It was more than 2,600 points at that time. When the A-share market was at its most desperate, it prompted us to start a long call.
3. What will I do next?
I will talk to you in depth about my old profession. The asset allocation series is an important series this year. In investment, many people are entangled in tactical aspects, such as macro analysis, industry research, individual stock selection, and specific strategies. Factor dismantling. It requires not only macro-level strategic timing, but also micro-level breakdown of each manager's specific strategies as if they are crystal clear, and doing a bunch of things with a low winning rate.
However, it is very lazy strategically, and has not even established an asset allocation framework with a high winning rate.
Therefore, we hope to use more than 5-10 articles to help everyone clearly build an asset allocation framework.
At least the strategy should be clear first so that no one makes big mistakes. At present, the update is basically completed, and we will continue to check for leaks and fill in the gaps in the future. We will also slowly lead everyone to continue to build their own framework in actual combat.
4. Option practice
I will further carry out various online and offline teachings so that everyone can better understand option strategies in a practical way.
Options private training class is a practical product line developed by me.
5. Why do prices continue to rise?
Why continue to increase prices?
If a good investment strategy has limited capacity, the manager must give priority to the best investors. The best investors are the old friends who gave you help when you were broke in the early days of your business.
When you join the planet, we will find ways to get you value that far exceeds the planet fee. Our energy is limited and we don’t want too many people to join. We only want to provide value to those who recognize us the most.
The old guys who joined Planet in the early days of its establishment, when there was no content, are the ones who support us the most and trust us. We must give them more preferential treatment.
The current fee is 699 yuan per year. How can we get more than 100,000 yuan or even more than one million in value? After thinking about it, we decided to remove the above content and add the following rights to Planet viewers:
Write at the end:
Friends who are waiting for planet discounts, don’t wait. Our principle is that we cannot let new members have lower prices than any old members. (If I have the marketing energy, I might as well write research reports. I’m not good at operations and fan building)
It is now 699 yuan, and it was 299 yuan at the earliest; there is a high probability that the price will still increase in the future, and this increase is much higher than that of other major types of assets.
It is recommended that players with relatively large investable assets join before joining, as they hope to provide value that far exceeds the planet fee.
Our planet is an investment, not a consumption.
#BTC
See original
E008.25-12-08｜Volatility Game, Year-End Layout: Crypto Options Strategy Under U.S.-Japan Divergence
Sober Options Studio × Derive.XYZ Joint Production
Written by Sober Options Studio Analyst Jenna @Jenna_w5
1. Macroeconomic Barometer: Divergence in U.S. and Japanese Monetary Policies and Year-End Liquidity Challenges
This week, the global macroeconomic landscape presents complex and contradictory signals. On one hand, the expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates are gradually settling, and discussions about a technical 'balance sheet expansion' are even beginning, providing a hint of easing warmth to the market; on the other hand, the potential actions of the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates are like a stone thrown into water, generating ripples in the global financial markets, especially posing a potential shock to the global liquidity that has long depended on yen carry trade. Coupled with the seasonal tightening of liquidity at the year-end and the approaching ruling of the U.S. Supreme Court on the legality of Trump’s tariffs, the market is showing a noticeable oscillation pattern under the pull of these multiple forces.
Written by Sober Options Studio Analyst Jenna @Jenna_w5
1. Macroeconomic Barometer: Divergence in U.S. and Japanese Monetary Policies and Year-End Liquidity Challenges
This week, the global macroeconomic landscape presents complex and contradictory signals. On one hand, the expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates are gradually settling, and discussions about a technical 'balance sheet expansion' are even beginning, providing a hint of easing warmth to the market; on the other hand, the potential actions of the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates are like a stone thrown into water, generating ripples in the global financial markets, especially posing a potential shock to the global liquidity that has long depended on yen carry trade. Coupled with the seasonal tightening of liquidity at the year-end and the approaching ruling of the U.S. Supreme Court on the legality of Trump’s tariffs, the market is showing a noticeable oscillation pattern under the pull of these multiple forces.
See original
E007.25-12-01｜Interest Rate Cuts and Tariff Fog: Defensive Strategies for Crypto Options Under Year-End Liquidity Constraints
Sober Options Studio × Derive.XYZ Joint Production
Written by Sober Options Studio Analyst Jenna @Jenna_w5
I. Macroeconomic Barometer: Increased Certainty of Interest Rate Cuts, Sino-U.S. Rebound and Year-End Uncertainty
Last week, the core theme of the market was the evolution of interest rate cut expectations from 'uncertain' to 'almost certain.' This increased certainty, along with positive signals from Sino-U.S. trade relations, jointly propelled a mild market rebound. However, in the face of liquidity tightening and policy decision risks at the end of December, the market still needs to remain cautious.
Increased Certainty of Interest Rate Cuts: From Uncertainty Shock to Market Rebound
Written by Sober Options Studio Analyst Jenna @Jenna_w5
I. Macroeconomic Barometer: Increased Certainty of Interest Rate Cuts, Sino-U.S. Rebound and Year-End Uncertainty
Last week, the core theme of the market was the evolution of interest rate cut expectations from 'uncertain' to 'almost certain.' This increased certainty, along with positive signals from Sino-U.S. trade relations, jointly propelled a mild market rebound. However, in the face of liquidity tightening and policy decision risks at the end of December, the market still needs to remain cautious.
Increased Certainty of Interest Rate Cuts: From Uncertainty Shock to Market Rebound
See original
E006.25-11-24｜Pricing Dilemma in the Data Fog - Why is the Rebound in Rate Cut Probability Hard to Rescue Coin Prices?
Sober Options Studio × Derive.XYZ Joint Production @DeriveXYZ_CN
Written by Sober Options Studio Analyst Jenna @Jenna_w5
1. Macro Insight: The Data Vacuum and the Prisoner's Dilemma of Policy Games
Last week, the crypto market fell into a strange state of 'divergence'. Although CME data showed a significant rebound in the probability of a rate cut in December, the prices of BTC and ETH did not rebound and instead showed signs of fatigue after a decline. On a macro level, the government shutdown crisis has led to a halt in data releases, casting a thick layer of 'data fog' over the Federal Reserve's decision-making. The options market is re-pricing for this 'unknown' uncertainty: IV (Implied Volatility) on the short end has significantly increased, Skew is deeply negative and solidified, and the market is shifting from merely 'trading rate cuts' to 'trading recession and policy error risks'.
Written by Sober Options Studio Analyst Jenna @Jenna_w5
1. Macro Insight: The Data Vacuum and the Prisoner's Dilemma of Policy Games
Last week, the crypto market fell into a strange state of 'divergence'. Although CME data showed a significant rebound in the probability of a rate cut in December, the prices of BTC and ETH did not rebound and instead showed signs of fatigue after a decline. On a macro level, the government shutdown crisis has led to a halt in data releases, casting a thick layer of 'data fog' over the Federal Reserve's decision-making. The options market is re-pricing for this 'unknown' uncertainty: IV (Implied Volatility) on the short end has significantly increased, Skew is deeply negative and solidified, and the market is shifting from merely 'trading rate cuts' to 'trading recession and policy error risks'.
See original
E005.25-11-17｜Interest Rate Cut Expectations Hit the Brakes: How Macroeconomic Uncertainty Ignites This Week's Crypto Market Correction?
Sober Options Studio × Derive.XYZ Co-production
Written by Sober Options Studio analyst Jenna @Jenna_w5
1. The impact of interest rate cut expectations and the linkage with market pricing
The core of last week's theme was the significant retreat in interest rate cut expectations that triggered a market correction. Last Saturday, both the Kansas City Fed and Dallas Fed released cautious signals regarding a rate cut in December at the annual energy conference, shifting the market from previous optimism about a year-end rate cut to a more cautious pricing. CME Group FedWatch shows that the probability of the third rate cut of the year on December 10 plummeted to about 44%, down approximately 20 percentage points from the previous week, with the market now leaning towards a trajectory of 'maintaining 2 rate cuts for the year, totaling 50bp.'
Written by Sober Options Studio analyst Jenna @Jenna_w5
1. The impact of interest rate cut expectations and the linkage with market pricing
The core of last week's theme was the significant retreat in interest rate cut expectations that triggered a market correction. Last Saturday, both the Kansas City Fed and Dallas Fed released cautious signals regarding a rate cut in December at the annual energy conference, shifting the market from previous optimism about a year-end rate cut to a more cautious pricing. CME Group FedWatch shows that the probability of the third rate cut of the year on December 10 plummeted to about 44%, down approximately 20 percentage points from the previous week, with the market now leaning towards a trajectory of 'maintaining 2 rate cuts for the year, totaling 50bp.'
See original
E004.25-11-10｜Defensive Strategies Under Rising Systemic Risk: How to Trade Options in This Volatility?
Sober Options Studio × Derive.XYZ Joint Production @DeriveXYZ_CN
Written by Sober Options Studio Analyst Jenna @Jenna_w5
1. Macro Black Holes and Platform Tightening: How does the market price 'Data Absence'?
Last week, the crypto asset market experienced a typical emotional correction, driven not by a single price event but by the dual overlap of macro systemic uncertainty and micro market deleveraging. As options traders, we must penetrate price fluctuations and understand the deeper logic of market risk pricing.
U.S. Government Shutdown: Creating a 'Data Black Hole' and Systemic Uncertainty
Written by Sober Options Studio Analyst Jenna @Jenna_w5
1. Macro Black Holes and Platform Tightening: How does the market price 'Data Absence'?
Last week, the crypto asset market experienced a typical emotional correction, driven not by a single price event but by the dual overlap of macro systemic uncertainty and micro market deleveraging. As options traders, we must penetrate price fluctuations and understand the deeper logic of market risk pricing.
U.S. Government Shutdown: Creating a 'Data Black Hole' and Systemic Uncertainty
See original
E003.25-11-03｜How to position for the stablecoin wave using options?——In-depth analysis of BTC and ETH volatility structure
Sober Options Studio × Derive.XYZ Joint Production
Written by Sober Options Studio Analyst Jenna
1. The impact of stablecoin trading hitting new highs on the crypto market
This week, the stablecoin market has reached a historic breakthrough: its monthly trading volume (primarily referring to real-world scenario transactions for goods, services, and transfers) has set a new record, surpassing $10 billion, significantly higher than February's $6 billion. This milestone event marks a solid step towards transforming crypto assets from mere speculative tools into global payment and business solutions, and has profound implications for the long-term value narrative of underlying assets like BTC and ETH.
Written by Sober Options Studio Analyst Jenna
1. The impact of stablecoin trading hitting new highs on the crypto market
This week, the stablecoin market has reached a historic breakthrough: its monthly trading volume (primarily referring to real-world scenario transactions for goods, services, and transfers) has set a new record, surpassing $10 billion, significantly higher than February's $6 billion. This milestone event marks a solid step towards transforming crypto assets from mere speculative tools into global payment and business solutions, and has profound implications for the long-term value narrative of underlying assets like BTC and ETH.
See original
E002.25-10-28｜How to Use Options to Layout the 'U.S. Government Shutdown' Event? — In-Depth Analysis of BTC and ETH Volatility Structure
Sober Options Studio × Derive.XYZ Joint Production @DeriveXYZ_CN
Written by Sober Options Studio Analyst Jenna @Jenna_w5
1. The Impact of the U.S. Government Shutdown on the Crypto Market
This week, global financial markets continue to be under pressure from a political event currently unfolding—the U.S. federal government shutdown. This has lasted for 24 days and is predicted by the market (such as Polymarket) to potentially set the record for the longest shutdown in history. Polymarket data shows that traders generally expect this deadlock to extend into mid-November or even longer, meaning the market must shift from 'short-term shock' mode to 'long-term systemic pressure' mode.
Written by Sober Options Studio Analyst Jenna @Jenna_w5
1. The Impact of the U.S. Government Shutdown on the Crypto Market
This week, global financial markets continue to be under pressure from a political event currently unfolding—the U.S. federal government shutdown. This has lasted for 24 days and is predicted by the market (such as Polymarket) to potentially set the record for the longest shutdown in history. Polymarket data shows that traders generally expect this deadlock to extend into mid-November or even longer, meaning the market must shift from 'short-term shock' mode to 'long-term systemic pressure' mode.
See original
E001.25-10-24｜How to Use Options to Position for TACO Trading? — Crypto Options Practical Strategies Under Macroeconomic Noise
Sober Options Studio × Derive.XYZ Joint Production
1. Macroeconomic Noise and the Option Pricing Impact of the TACO Script
Last week, the global financial markets experienced another round of intense volatility driven by macro geopolitical news. This frequently occurring pattern has been humorously dubbed by seasoned traders as 'TACO trading' (Trump Always Chickens Out) — a high-risk, high-reward gambling behavior that is profoundly reshaping the ecological logic of the crypto options market. The so-called 'TACO strategy' is essentially a summary of the U.S. government's erratic behavior in major decision-making: when policies trigger severe market fluctuations or economic pressure, the relevant decision-makers (typical behavior during the Trump era) often tend to quickly release soothing signals or actively retreat. This pattern has formed a clear script loop:
1. Macroeconomic Noise and the Option Pricing Impact of the TACO Script
Last week, the global financial markets experienced another round of intense volatility driven by macro geopolitical news. This frequently occurring pattern has been humorously dubbed by seasoned traders as 'TACO trading' (Trump Always Chickens Out) — a high-risk, high-reward gambling behavior that is profoundly reshaping the ecological logic of the crypto options market. The so-called 'TACO strategy' is essentially a summary of the U.S. government's erratic behavior in major decision-making: when policies trigger severe market fluctuations or economic pressure, the relevant decision-makers (typical behavior during the Trump era) often tend to quickly release soothing signals or actively retreat. This pattern has formed a clear script loop:
See original
Investment Methodology:
# Sober's Trading WeChat Public Account: The 30 Most Valuable Investment Articles
## Ranked by Investment Guidance Value (from high to low)
1. [The Patient Game Behind $347 Billion in Cash: Buffett's Three Iron Laws of Value](https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/4X4W7Tez0ORD_4ugJQ7NZg)
Core Value: The essence of Buffett's investment philosophy, the iron laws of long-term value investing
2. [A Comprehensive Guide on How to Use Covered ETFs for Arbitrage!](https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/KD0Le9pSS-YsHrOvs5t_8g)
Core Value: Detailed explanation of covered ETF arbitrage strategies, highly practical
3. [Decoding the 'Easy Money' Secret: How to Use Futures Rollovers to Snag 7%-20% Returns in the Options Market?](https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/h1ev1hCxf938fFOkTMEZHg)
Core Value: Low-risk high-return strategies, futures rollover arbitrage techniques
4. [Black Swan Catcher Jamie Mai: Earning 118 Times During the Subprime Crisis Using Options](https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/92n3TH0GSHeeNnDcGnEUIw)
Core Value: Options strategies in crises, extreme return case studies
5. [Earn 5.6% Passively in a Market Crash! Revealing Wall Street's 'Risk-Free' Arbitrage Tool: The BOXX Strategy](https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/OZA7W5rVJm2LcG2xFHnrzA)
Core Value: Detailed explanation of the low-risk arbitrage tool BOXX
6. [Earn an Annualized 14% Passively! Revealing the 'Rental Income Tool' Covered Call Strategy of JEPI/JEPQ](https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/_RFWQmilL07UA8SJyHS0jQ)
Core Value: Practical application of the covered call strategy
7. [Wall Street's 'Retail Investor Trap' JEPQ: You Think You're Getting Dividends? You're Actually Paying an IQ Tax!](https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/TlsDPHgZXL2pK2E1u4JXEw)
Core Value: Identifying investment traps, avoiding common mistakes
8. [A Comprehensive Guide to Options Skew](https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Bdk0398EiQrZrmqZIJ5bTw)
Core Value: Detailed explanation of advanced options concepts, enhancing trading skills
9. [Advanced Options Delta Hedging Strategy: Practical Logic for Dynamic Market Adaptation](https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/o867MpNngRcr8_uuhWp7ng)
Core Value: Advanced hedging strategies, risk management techniques
10. [A Must-Read for Retail Investors! Tesla's Stock Price Roller Coaster from $480 to $220: Revealing Wall Street's Algorithmic Slaughterhouse](https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/5EVccdK14M34DDHtyflu4g)
Core Value: Identifying market manipulation, retail investor protection strategies
# Sober's Trading WeChat Public Account: The 30 Most Valuable Investment Articles
## Ranked by Investment Guidance Value (from high to low)
1. [The Patient Game Behind $347 Billion in Cash: Buffett's Three Iron Laws of Value](https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/4X4W7Tez0ORD_4ugJQ7NZg)
Core Value: The essence of Buffett's investment philosophy, the iron laws of long-term value investing
2. [A Comprehensive Guide on How to Use Covered ETFs for Arbitrage!](https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/KD0Le9pSS-YsHrOvs5t_8g)
Core Value: Detailed explanation of covered ETF arbitrage strategies, highly practical
3. [Decoding the 'Easy Money' Secret: How to Use Futures Rollovers to Snag 7%-20% Returns in the Options Market?](https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/h1ev1hCxf938fFOkTMEZHg)
Core Value: Low-risk high-return strategies, futures rollover arbitrage techniques
4. [Black Swan Catcher Jamie Mai: Earning 118 Times During the Subprime Crisis Using Options](https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/92n3TH0GSHeeNnDcGnEUIw)
Core Value: Options strategies in crises, extreme return case studies
5. [Earn 5.6% Passively in a Market Crash! Revealing Wall Street's 'Risk-Free' Arbitrage Tool: The BOXX Strategy](https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/OZA7W5rVJm2LcG2xFHnrzA)
Core Value: Detailed explanation of the low-risk arbitrage tool BOXX
6. [Earn an Annualized 14% Passively! Revealing the 'Rental Income Tool' Covered Call Strategy of JEPI/JEPQ](https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/_RFWQmilL07UA8SJyHS0jQ)
Core Value: Practical application of the covered call strategy
7. [Wall Street's 'Retail Investor Trap' JEPQ: You Think You're Getting Dividends? You're Actually Paying an IQ Tax!](https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/TlsDPHgZXL2pK2E1u4JXEw)
Core Value: Identifying investment traps, avoiding common mistakes
8. [A Comprehensive Guide to Options Skew](https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Bdk0398EiQrZrmqZIJ5bTw)
Core Value: Detailed explanation of advanced options concepts, enhancing trading skills
9. [Advanced Options Delta Hedging Strategy: Practical Logic for Dynamic Market Adaptation](https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/o867MpNngRcr8_uuhWp7ng)
Core Value: Advanced hedging strategies, risk management techniques
10. [A Must-Read for Retail Investors! Tesla's Stock Price Roller Coaster from $480 to $220: Revealing Wall Street's Algorithmic Slaughterhouse](https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/5EVccdK14M34DDHtyflu4g)
Core Value: Identifying market manipulation, retail investor protection strategies
See original
August 19 Crypto Options Market Research Report
The US stock market rebounded by nearly 10%, and the overall crypto market was weak. There is a high probability that there will be large fluctuations before the end of the month
Coincall (the first U-based alt options exchange, trading popular alt options such as Sol, Ton, and Ordi), a third-party custodial options platform with simple KYC (select HK)
I. Core Views
1- The market was flat and shrunk over the weekend, and the implied volatility of the options market was basically flat. Judging from the current volatility cones of BTC and ETH, it is still at the 25-50 percentile level;
2- Coincall's real account has two delta-neutral strategies, one is the Gamma scalping strategy at the end of the month, and the other is a neutral seller strategy, which is constructed using ratio spread. This week, the delta value will continue to be adjusted to neutral;
3- Subjectively judge that the short-term downside risk of crypto is still greater; this can also be clearly seen from the pricing of implied volatility in the options market. This Friday, the put of btc delta15 has 3 more vols than the call;
4- In the near future, you can pay attention to the long call opportunities of high-quality altcoins if a big drop occurs. For example: Ordi, BNB, etc.
5- Sol and ton views remain unchanged
Summary: In the past two weeks, we should still be wary of black swan risks, and players with heavy +delta positions should pay attention to thick tail protection. Because it is now in a medium-low IV environment, sellers with Theta as the main body should be wary of Gamma risks.
2. Block transactions
The largest transaction of BTC is 485
buy BTC-30AUG24-62000-C
The largest transaction of sol is 1050
buy SOL_USDC-20AUG24-145-C
3. Macro market
U.S. stocks:
Last week, U.S. stocks rebounded continuously and the Nasdaq 100 index reached a position close to 2w points. It has rebounded nearly 10% since Black Monday on August 5. The overall market is still very strong. However, my judgment that the overall valuation is in a medium-to-high position has not changed. Players who do not want to miss out should continue to use options to reduce spot costs at this stage, because the odds of holding spot are indeed insufficient. The VIX panic index dropped from the previous high of 65 to 14.8. This wave of VIX market private training class 2.0 has been seized by players. The overall situation is still in the black swan outbreak area, and we will still have similar opportunities. Long-term US bonds have further clarified the small-scale trading range, and familiar players continue to use options to reduce costs.
Throughout Q3 and Q4, I subjectively judge that there are still many asymmetric opportunities in the US stock market, especially for players familiar with derivatives.
The US stock market rebounded by nearly 10%, and the overall crypto market was weak. There is a high probability that there will be large fluctuations before the end of the month
Coincall (the first U-based alt options exchange, trading popular alt options such as Sol, Ton, and Ordi), a third-party custodial options platform with simple KYC (select HK)
I. Core Views
1- The market was flat and shrunk over the weekend, and the implied volatility of the options market was basically flat. Judging from the current volatility cones of BTC and ETH, it is still at the 25-50 percentile level;
2- Coincall's real account has two delta-neutral strategies, one is the Gamma scalping strategy at the end of the month, and the other is a neutral seller strategy, which is constructed using ratio spread. This week, the delta value will continue to be adjusted to neutral;
3- Subjectively judge that the short-term downside risk of crypto is still greater; this can also be clearly seen from the pricing of implied volatility in the options market. This Friday, the put of btc delta15 has 3 more vols than the call;
4- In the near future, you can pay attention to the long call opportunities of high-quality altcoins if a big drop occurs. For example: Ordi, BNB, etc.
5- Sol and ton views remain unchanged
Summary: In the past two weeks, we should still be wary of black swan risks, and players with heavy +delta positions should pay attention to thick tail protection. Because it is now in a medium-low IV environment, sellers with Theta as the main body should be wary of Gamma risks.
2. Block transactions
The largest transaction of BTC is 485
buy BTC-30AUG24-62000-C
The largest transaction of sol is 1050
buy SOL_USDC-20AUG24-145-C
3. Macro market
U.S. stocks:
Last week, U.S. stocks rebounded continuously and the Nasdaq 100 index reached a position close to 2w points. It has rebounded nearly 10% since Black Monday on August 5. The overall market is still very strong. However, my judgment that the overall valuation is in a medium-to-high position has not changed. Players who do not want to miss out should continue to use options to reduce spot costs at this stage, because the odds of holding spot are indeed insufficient. The VIX panic index dropped from the previous high of 65 to 14.8. This wave of VIX market private training class 2.0 has been seized by players. The overall situation is still in the black swan outbreak area, and we will still have similar opportunities. Long-term US bonds have further clarified the small-scale trading range, and familiar players continue to use options to reduce costs.
Throughout Q3 and Q4, I subjectively judge that there are still many asymmetric opportunities in the US stock market, especially for players familiar with derivatives.
See original
August 8 Crypto Options Market Research Report
It is difficult to say that the US stock market has adjusted in the short term. Cryptocurrencies are bearish recently. How to arrange options positions?
This Sunday is the only free trial class for private lessons. You can join the group by adding the assistant’s WeChat: April1336.
Coincall (No. 1 U-based alt options exchange, trading popular alt options such as Sol, Ton, and Ordi)
I. Core Views
1- ETH near-term panic sentiment is particularly severe, and the implied volatility has been sideways in the past two days; the overall implied volatility has reached above the 75th percentile, and the current RV is relatively large. Subjectively, I do not think that shorting near-term volatility has a good profit and loss ratio
2- The current put option purchase premium will continue until the end of September. From the perspective of hedging, the general market view is risk fear, and increase put option purchases to hedge spot and contract long delta positions;
3- BTC ETFs are still mainly net outflows recently, and Ethereum ETFs have recently turned to net inflows, with a total outflow of ETHE of 2.2 billion
4- Among the alt option targets, Sol has a good opportunity to short short-term volatility and use IV premium to grind down spot costs recently, which is suitable for mid- and high-level players. At the same time, this strategy will be very stable if it supplements appropriate put option purchase positions to hedge the overall portfolio
5- Ordi rebounded moderately. The overall BTC ecosystem has not seen any signs of capital speculation recently. Spot positions continue to roll cc strategies to reduce costs.
Summary: Subjective judgment shows that the mid-line is mainly oscillating, and there is no sign of short-term strength. The near-end RV is high. Near-end short volatility players should pay attention to Gamma risk
2. Option bulk transactions
BTC bulk players have bought wide straddle positions in the doomsday round, betting on the Gamma market, and short call spread positions betting on no big rise
buy BTC-9AUG24-56000-P + buy BTC-9AUG24-58000-C
sell BTC-23AUG24-67000-C + buy BTC-23AUG24-72000-C
sol has a large number of covered positions and long put option positions
sell SOL_USDC-16AUG24-180-C
buy SOL_USDC-30AUG24-110-P
III. Macro Market
US stocks:
Yesterday, the overall US stock market rose first and then fell, and VIX also showed a gradual decline. At present, it is difficult to say that the US stock market has adjusted in place, and there is a high probability of fluctuations and downward movement. Therefore, it is subjectively judged that it is difficult for the short-term crypto market to have a big market. It is necessary to balance positions and patiently reduce spot costs.
A shares:
Yesterday I had dinner with friends from financial institutions. At present, the confidence in the financial industry is at a low point. Subjectively, it is worse than in 2018.
It is difficult to say that the US stock market has adjusted in the short term. Cryptocurrencies are bearish recently. How to arrange options positions?
This Sunday is the only free trial class for private lessons. You can join the group by adding the assistant’s WeChat: April1336.
Coincall (No. 1 U-based alt options exchange, trading popular alt options such as Sol, Ton, and Ordi)
I. Core Views
1- ETH near-term panic sentiment is particularly severe, and the implied volatility has been sideways in the past two days; the overall implied volatility has reached above the 75th percentile, and the current RV is relatively large. Subjectively, I do not think that shorting near-term volatility has a good profit and loss ratio
2- The current put option purchase premium will continue until the end of September. From the perspective of hedging, the general market view is risk fear, and increase put option purchases to hedge spot and contract long delta positions;
3- BTC ETFs are still mainly net outflows recently, and Ethereum ETFs have recently turned to net inflows, with a total outflow of ETHE of 2.2 billion
4- Among the alt option targets, Sol has a good opportunity to short short-term volatility and use IV premium to grind down spot costs recently, which is suitable for mid- and high-level players. At the same time, this strategy will be very stable if it supplements appropriate put option purchase positions to hedge the overall portfolio
5- Ordi rebounded moderately. The overall BTC ecosystem has not seen any signs of capital speculation recently. Spot positions continue to roll cc strategies to reduce costs.
Summary: Subjective judgment shows that the mid-line is mainly oscillating, and there is no sign of short-term strength. The near-end RV is high. Near-end short volatility players should pay attention to Gamma risk
2. Option bulk transactions
BTC bulk players have bought wide straddle positions in the doomsday round, betting on the Gamma market, and short call spread positions betting on no big rise
buy BTC-9AUG24-56000-P + buy BTC-9AUG24-58000-C
sell BTC-23AUG24-67000-C + buy BTC-23AUG24-72000-C
sol has a large number of covered positions and long put option positions
sell SOL_USDC-16AUG24-180-C
buy SOL_USDC-30AUG24-110-P
III. Macro Market
US stocks:
Yesterday, the overall US stock market rose first and then fell, and VIX also showed a gradual decline. At present, it is difficult to say that the US stock market has adjusted in place, and there is a high probability of fluctuations and downward movement. Therefore, it is subjectively judged that it is difficult for the short-term crypto market to have a big market. It is necessary to balance positions and patiently reduce spot costs.
A shares:
Yesterday I had dinner with friends from financial institutions. At present, the confidence in the financial industry is at a low point. Subjectively, it is worse than in 2018.
See original
August 7 Crypto Options Market Research Report
It has not stabilized in the short term. How to hedge the risk in the recent high actual volatility position?
Coincall (the first U-based alt options exchange, trading popular alt options such as Sol, Ton, Ordi), a third-party custodial options platform with simple KYC (select HK), invitation link: https://coincall.com/r/19298649
I. Core Views
1- BTC and ETH are still at high levels, ETH has exceeded the 75th percentile, and the long vega strategy was recommended last week. It is currently in the floating profit stage and can be closed at an appropriate time;
2- It is still not possible to say that it has stabilized and rebounded in the short term. Today, a video will be released to explain several option hedging strategies in detail. How to use them?
3- Many option veterans have long held short vega positions to make money, and the current market environment is not suitable for subjective judgment. The term structure of BTC and ETH is near high and far low. It is highly likely that IV will not return so quickly based on event considerations, especially the US election in November. If there are players who have not laid out long vega positions before, they can lay out in November.
4- The implied volatility of the altcoin option sol has risen very quickly, and controlling MM still has a good near-end way to brush theta back and forth;
5- The ordi covered call position will be transferred to the tg group this week
Summary: Both the near-end RV and IV are at high levels, and it is necessary to keep enough MM to control the Gamma risk. The far-end can be combined with the US election long vega
II. Option block trading
BTC has a large position of more than 1,400 pieces, and a bear market spread strategy (betting on a continued sharp drop)
sell BTC-30AUG24-44000-P + buy BTC-30AUG24-48000-P
ETH and sol did not observe abnormal blocks
III. Macro market
US stocks:
Yesterday, the US stock market rose and fell. The weekend observation of qqq 18,000 points was far away, and the key position had great resistance. The panic index VIX fell back to 27.7, and the short vix position made a floating profit and continued to hold. At present, the bears in the US stock market still dominate and have not stabilized.
A shares:
Yesterday, the North Water Fund flowed out 6.2 billion, indicating that the market is still weak in confidence. The internal confidence problem was exposed during the day. It can be seen that GJD still supported the market at the end of the trading day. There is no other way but to wait patiently. The iron must be hard to forge.
It has not stabilized in the short term. How to hedge the risk in the recent high actual volatility position?
Coincall (the first U-based alt options exchange, trading popular alt options such as Sol, Ton, Ordi), a third-party custodial options platform with simple KYC (select HK), invitation link: https://coincall.com/r/19298649
I. Core Views
1- BTC and ETH are still at high levels, ETH has exceeded the 75th percentile, and the long vega strategy was recommended last week. It is currently in the floating profit stage and can be closed at an appropriate time;
2- It is still not possible to say that it has stabilized and rebounded in the short term. Today, a video will be released to explain several option hedging strategies in detail. How to use them?
3- Many option veterans have long held short vega positions to make money, and the current market environment is not suitable for subjective judgment. The term structure of BTC and ETH is near high and far low. It is highly likely that IV will not return so quickly based on event considerations, especially the US election in November. If there are players who have not laid out long vega positions before, they can lay out in November.
4- The implied volatility of the altcoin option sol has risen very quickly, and controlling MM still has a good near-end way to brush theta back and forth;
5- The ordi covered call position will be transferred to the tg group this week
Summary: Both the near-end RV and IV are at high levels, and it is necessary to keep enough MM to control the Gamma risk. The far-end can be combined with the US election long vega
II. Option block trading
BTC has a large position of more than 1,400 pieces, and a bear market spread strategy (betting on a continued sharp drop)
sell BTC-30AUG24-44000-P + buy BTC-30AUG24-48000-P
ETH and sol did not observe abnormal blocks
III. Macro market
US stocks:
Yesterday, the US stock market rose and fell. The weekend observation of qqq 18,000 points was far away, and the key position had great resistance. The panic index VIX fell back to 27.7, and the short vix position made a floating profit and continued to hold. At present, the bears in the US stock market still dominate and have not stabilized.
A shares:
Yesterday, the North Water Fund flowed out 6.2 billion, indicating that the market is still weak in confidence. The internal confidence problem was exposed during the day. It can be seen that GJD still supported the market at the end of the trading day. There is no other way but to wait patiently. The iron must be hard to forge.
See original
August 5 Crypto Options Market Research Report
US stocks are in panic, cryptocurrencies are in a serious short-term panic, how can options hedge risks?
The limited-time scholarship for private classes has ended, and the opening ceremony will be held this weekend.
Coincall (No. 1 U-based alt options exchange, trading popular alt options such as Sol, Ton, and Ordi)
I. Core Views
1- Since the U.S. stock market hyped up the economic recession last week, cryptocurrencies have been falling over the weekend. If the spot position is too heavy, the panic sentiment is serious in the short term, and it is not cost-effective to buy short-term put options. You can choose a suitable strike price contract in September;
2- ETH's trend has continued to weaken relative to BTC and sol in recent days. My personal long eth +delta position has been closed at the weekend;
3- On the fundamental research of L1 sol vs eth, a YouTube video was uploaded over the weekend, extracting data from the Defi research report to evaluate the two L1 public chains. Portal: https://youtu.be/OA0xoJLte1k?si=fz3Wwf18iH5AwcuI…
4- I wrote a short essay in Weekend Planet, "The U.S. Treasury Bull Market Has Begun (August 3 - U.S. Treasury Article 11)", which contains overall thoughts on several macro markets. You can read the full article. This week, I am relatively pessimistic about the crypto market. I have closed all my sell put positions this week to prevent Gamma risk;
5- The copycat underlying options continue to roll sol's doomsday options, and ordi cycle options continue to use covered call strategies.
Summary: The overall market is weak this week. Players with heavy spot positions can buy forward put options to hedge their positions.
2. Bulk option trading
BTC bulk purchases totaling about 500 put option positions this Friday
buy BTC-9AUG24-61000-P
buy BTC-9AUG24-59000-P
ETH bulk purchases of month-end call options and this week's put options, 6,500 and 5,000 positions respectively
buy ETH-9AUG24-2800-P
3. Macro market
US stocks:
Last week, the focus was on the accelerated realization of the US dollar in the direction of interest rate cuts. Because the Fed's actions in the past cycle were "slow", the market had already fully priced in the US dollar's interest rate cut expectations. Now that the Fed has finally accelerated its dovish stance due to the reality of falling US inflation and the economy beginning to be under pressure, the market will price it based on the logic of "the shoe has landed".
A-shares:
Last week, the inflow and outflow of Northbound funds are worth reviewing:
① On Wednesday, Northbound funds inflowed nearly 20 billion, and the big sun bottomed out and attacked;
② On Thursday, Northbound funds outflowed more than 5 billion, and the market fluctuated slightly and fell;
US stocks are in panic, cryptocurrencies are in a serious short-term panic, how can options hedge risks?
The limited-time scholarship for private classes has ended, and the opening ceremony will be held this weekend.
Coincall (No. 1 U-based alt options exchange, trading popular alt options such as Sol, Ton, and Ordi)
I. Core Views
1- Since the U.S. stock market hyped up the economic recession last week, cryptocurrencies have been falling over the weekend. If the spot position is too heavy, the panic sentiment is serious in the short term, and it is not cost-effective to buy short-term put options. You can choose a suitable strike price contract in September;
2- ETH's trend has continued to weaken relative to BTC and sol in recent days. My personal long eth +delta position has been closed at the weekend;
3- On the fundamental research of L1 sol vs eth, a YouTube video was uploaded over the weekend, extracting data from the Defi research report to evaluate the two L1 public chains. Portal: https://youtu.be/OA0xoJLte1k?si=fz3Wwf18iH5AwcuI…
4- I wrote a short essay in Weekend Planet, "The U.S. Treasury Bull Market Has Begun (August 3 - U.S. Treasury Article 11)", which contains overall thoughts on several macro markets. You can read the full article. This week, I am relatively pessimistic about the crypto market. I have closed all my sell put positions this week to prevent Gamma risk;
5- The copycat underlying options continue to roll sol's doomsday options, and ordi cycle options continue to use covered call strategies.
Summary: The overall market is weak this week. Players with heavy spot positions can buy forward put options to hedge their positions.
2. Bulk option trading
BTC bulk purchases totaling about 500 put option positions this Friday
buy BTC-9AUG24-61000-P
buy BTC-9AUG24-59000-P
ETH bulk purchases of month-end call options and this week's put options, 6,500 and 5,000 positions respectively
buy ETH-9AUG24-2800-P
3. Macro market
US stocks:
Last week, the focus was on the accelerated realization of the US dollar in the direction of interest rate cuts. Because the Fed's actions in the past cycle were "slow", the market had already fully priced in the US dollar's interest rate cut expectations. Now that the Fed has finally accelerated its dovish stance due to the reality of falling US inflation and the economy beginning to be under pressure, the market will price it based on the logic of "the shoe has landed".
A-shares:
Last week, the inflow and outflow of Northbound funds are worth reviewing:
① On Wednesday, Northbound funds inflowed nearly 20 billion, and the big sun bottomed out and attacked;
② On Thursday, Northbound funds outflowed more than 5 billion, and the market fluctuated slightly and fell;
See original
August 1 Crypto Options Market Research Report
The Fed is dovish as expected, US stocks and bonds are rising, but cryptocurrencies are falling. How to break it?
Coincall (No. 1 U-based alt options exchange, trading popular alt options such as Sol, Ton, and Ordi)
I. Core Views
1- Yesterday's video recommended two strategies, one is the doomsday round long gamma, and the other is the long medium-term vega strategy. At present, long gamma has indeed achieved relatively good results and can be closed with profit;
2- Cryptocurrency still needs to break away from the US stock market and move out of the downward trend in the short term, and BTC's ETF also has a slight net outflow;
3- The implied volatility of BTC and ETH is still hovering at a low level. Players who want to go long on medium- and long-term vega can slowly build positions; or wait for the implied volatility to continue to drop to the 3-digit;
4- The overall alt option underlying is falling with BTC. Players of short vol can appropriately reduce the short vol position and focus on whether the spot price meets the delta scalping expectations, and buy high and sell low;
5- In addition, alt options can continue to focus on Kas. In the early days, we made good profits from long calls.
Summary: ETH/BTC exchange rate is sideways, and we need to continue to pay attention to the net outflow of Grayscale ETHE. At present, ETH ETF has begun to show net inflow on the 30th. Subjectively, we are still optimistic about this round of Ethereum spot rebound, and we have also used options to arrange +delta and +vega positions, which are currently in floating losses.
2. Option block trading
The largest block of BTC yesterday was more than 1,200 positions short call spread
buy BTC-27DEC24-100000-C + sell BTC-27DEC24-65000-C
ETH's largest block yesterday was a 4-leg position, and an iron eagle strategy was implemented, continuing short vol
buy ETH-25OCT24-2800-P + sell ETH-25OCT24-3500-C + sell ETH-25OCT24-3500-P + buy ETH-25OCT24-4500-C
For large-scale transactions of sol, please visit the Star Friends TG group
3. Macro market
US stocks:
Yesterday's US stock interest rate meeting released a signal of an upcoming interest rate cut, QQQ\SPY rose across the board, 20-year long-term US bonds also rose, and VIX fell to 16.3. We need to continue to pay attention to the good news of the US stock interest rate cut. In my personal investment portfolio, I still have a larger long-term US bond position, and I also have a small allocation in short VIX ETFs. I have not reduced my previous heavy positions in technology stocks.
A-shares:
From yesterday's trend, regardless of the size of the index, it is generally rising, and at least it is a medium-sized positive line with volume.
The Fed is dovish as expected, US stocks and bonds are rising, but cryptocurrencies are falling. How to break it?
Coincall (No. 1 U-based alt options exchange, trading popular alt options such as Sol, Ton, and Ordi)
I. Core Views
1- Yesterday's video recommended two strategies, one is the doomsday round long gamma, and the other is the long medium-term vega strategy. At present, long gamma has indeed achieved relatively good results and can be closed with profit;
2- Cryptocurrency still needs to break away from the US stock market and move out of the downward trend in the short term, and BTC's ETF also has a slight net outflow;
3- The implied volatility of BTC and ETH is still hovering at a low level. Players who want to go long on medium- and long-term vega can slowly build positions; or wait for the implied volatility to continue to drop to the 3-digit;
4- The overall alt option underlying is falling with BTC. Players of short vol can appropriately reduce the short vol position and focus on whether the spot price meets the delta scalping expectations, and buy high and sell low;
5- In addition, alt options can continue to focus on Kas. In the early days, we made good profits from long calls.
Summary: ETH/BTC exchange rate is sideways, and we need to continue to pay attention to the net outflow of Grayscale ETHE. At present, ETH ETF has begun to show net inflow on the 30th. Subjectively, we are still optimistic about this round of Ethereum spot rebound, and we have also used options to arrange +delta and +vega positions, which are currently in floating losses.
2. Option block trading
The largest block of BTC yesterday was more than 1,200 positions short call spread
buy BTC-27DEC24-100000-C + sell BTC-27DEC24-65000-C
ETH's largest block yesterday was a 4-leg position, and an iron eagle strategy was implemented, continuing short vol
buy ETH-25OCT24-2800-P + sell ETH-25OCT24-3500-C + sell ETH-25OCT24-3500-P + buy ETH-25OCT24-4500-C
For large-scale transactions of sol, please visit the Star Friends TG group
3. Macro market
US stocks:
Yesterday's US stock interest rate meeting released a signal of an upcoming interest rate cut, QQQ\SPY rose across the board, 20-year long-term US bonds also rose, and VIX fell to 16.3. We need to continue to pay attention to the good news of the US stock interest rate cut. In my personal investment portfolio, I still have a larger long-term US bond position, and I also have a small allocation in short VIX ETFs. I have not reduced my previous heavy positions in technology stocks.
A-shares:
From yesterday's trend, regardless of the size of the index, it is generally rising, and at least it is a medium-sized positive line with volume.
See original
July 31 Crypto Options Market Research Report
August 1st Federal Reserve Interest Rate Meeting, Choose the Right Time to Do More Volatility?
Coincall (No. 1 U-based alt options exchange, trading popular alt options such as Sol, Ton, and Ordi)
I. Core Views
1- Through the volatility cone, it can be seen that the short-term IV of BTC and ETH has reached below the 25th percentile. You can adopt the long gamma strategy to bet on the increase in the RV of the interest rate meeting, or long September vega is currently around the 25th percentile. If you want to further reduce the cost, add some scalping strategies. The current implied volatility is relatively suitable for opening such strategies.
2- From the term structure, it can be seen that the medium- and long-term long call option structure position is still very healthy;
3- If you still want to wait to add a long volatility position, you can observe whether the IV will further drop after the interest rate meeting; if this is the scenario, it will be a better timing point for betting on volatility.
4- The implied volatility of the copycat option is in a downward trend, and the 70 Vol of the last day option of Sol is also at a low level. Short Vol players should pay attention to position control; the implied volatility of the ordi cycle option bid 1 has also dropped to 90%
Summary: You can choose to bet on volatility long positions before and after the interest rate meeting; subjective judgment is optimistic about the market in the second half of the year; conservative players can keep more US dollar positions in terms of positions. If there is a sharp drop, add spot positions or sell put-end implied volatility
II. Option block transactions
The two largest transactions of BTC yesterday were short call spread and near-end sell covered call positions
buy BTC-27DEC24-100000-C + sell BTC-27DEC24-65000-C
sell BTC-2AUG24-70000-C
ETH The three largest transactions yesterday were as follows: long August volatility and sell short-term covered call positions
buy ETH-3AUG24-3000-P
buy ETH-3AUG24-3400-C
sell ETH-2AUG24-3350-C
Sol See Star Friends TG Group
III. Macro Market
US Stocks:
The US stock market rose slightly yesterday, and long-term US bonds were sideways waiting for the interest rate meeting. What needs to be noted yesterday is that VIX rose by 6%. If there are derivatives players who want to increase short VIX in the near future, they can choose to increase their positions. Although the overall interest rate cut cycle is high, the economic resilience is still very strong.
A shares:
Because of the objective reality of the economy and the thunder and rain in the macro narrative, market participants have actively or passively entered the spiral of the "prisoner's game".
You still need to wait patiently and do less operations.
August 1st Federal Reserve Interest Rate Meeting, Choose the Right Time to Do More Volatility?
Coincall (No. 1 U-based alt options exchange, trading popular alt options such as Sol, Ton, and Ordi)
I. Core Views
1- Through the volatility cone, it can be seen that the short-term IV of BTC and ETH has reached below the 25th percentile. You can adopt the long gamma strategy to bet on the increase in the RV of the interest rate meeting, or long September vega is currently around the 25th percentile. If you want to further reduce the cost, add some scalping strategies. The current implied volatility is relatively suitable for opening such strategies.
2- From the term structure, it can be seen that the medium- and long-term long call option structure position is still very healthy;
3- If you still want to wait to add a long volatility position, you can observe whether the IV will further drop after the interest rate meeting; if this is the scenario, it will be a better timing point for betting on volatility.
4- The implied volatility of the copycat option is in a downward trend, and the 70 Vol of the last day option of Sol is also at a low level. Short Vol players should pay attention to position control; the implied volatility of the ordi cycle option bid 1 has also dropped to 90%
Summary: You can choose to bet on volatility long positions before and after the interest rate meeting; subjective judgment is optimistic about the market in the second half of the year; conservative players can keep more US dollar positions in terms of positions. If there is a sharp drop, add spot positions or sell put-end implied volatility
II. Option block transactions
The two largest transactions of BTC yesterday were short call spread and near-end sell covered call positions
buy BTC-27DEC24-100000-C + sell BTC-27DEC24-65000-C
sell BTC-2AUG24-70000-C
ETH The three largest transactions yesterday were as follows: long August volatility and sell short-term covered call positions
buy ETH-3AUG24-3000-P
buy ETH-3AUG24-3400-C
sell ETH-2AUG24-3350-C
Sol See Star Friends TG Group
III. Macro Market
US Stocks:
The US stock market rose slightly yesterday, and long-term US bonds were sideways waiting for the interest rate meeting. What needs to be noted yesterday is that VIX rose by 6%. If there are derivatives players who want to increase short VIX in the near future, they can choose to increase their positions. Although the overall interest rate cut cycle is high, the economic resilience is still very strong.
A shares:
Because of the objective reality of the economy and the thunder and rain in the macro narrative, market participants have actively or passively entered the spiral of the "prisoner's game".
You still need to wait patiently and do less operations.
See original
VIX ETF trading opportunities and black swan risk prevention and control (8 times return in 2 years, return to zero in just 1 day)
I recently looked at some VIX derivatives of US stocks. Based on my subjective judgment, since the cognitive threshold is relatively high, there will be good trading opportunities for option players, so I will write a brief article.
1. VIX Definition
You can check Chat gpt yourself. The IV index is not unfamiliar to option players. For non-amateur option trading players, it can be simply understood as: the market's estimate of the future volatility of the underlying asset.
A high implied volatility or a high VIX indicates that the market is concerned about the large actual volatility of the underlying asset.
However, there are often some deviations between market estimates and reality, which is a little deeper and we will not go into details.
1. VIX Definition
You can check Chat gpt yourself. The IV index is not unfamiliar to option players. For non-amateur option trading players, it can be simply understood as: the market's estimate of the future volatility of the underlying asset.
A high implied volatility or a high VIX indicates that the market is concerned about the large actual volatility of the underlying asset.
However, there are often some deviations between market estimates and reality, which is a little deeper and we will not go into details.
See original
July 30 Crypto Options Market Research Report
Spot prices fell, option implied volatility continued to fall, VRP converged, should we go long or short volatility in the future?
Coincall (No. 1 U-based alt options exchange, trading popular alt options such as Sol, Ton, Ordi), a third-party custodial options platform with simple KYC (select HK), invitation link: https://coincall.com/r/19298649
I. Core Views
1- With both spot and implied volatility falling, VRP converges, short vol positions can be gradually reduced, especially do not oversell vol;
2- Last night, I discussed with a crypto player how to go long on ETH. At present, my personal position uses long mid-term ATM call and short short-term call, and the overall retention of +delta, so that Theta is balanced, and the loss of Theta on the decline can earn some Vega if Vega rises
3- If the overall spot price falls, non-volatility trading players can sell some BTC puts, and hoard spot positions of 65,000 will have 50% APR at the end of August
4- The overall IV of alt options on Coincall is also in a downward channel, and option players can sell some Sol and Ordi Put, store spot position
Summary: The crypto market's PUT side implied volatility rose on Friday, and the bulk did not over-purchase put options to protect positions in the medium and long term; pay attention to option MM margin control in the mid-term bull market, and the overall +delta remains unchanged; long vega is not in a hurry to increase positions. Long ETH's Detla is subjectively judged to be worth planning.
2. Option block trading
The two largest transactions of BTC yesterday were as follows: 100,000 call option positions at the end of the year and anti-calendar strategy (optimistic about the Gamma market at the end of August):
buy BTC-27DEC24-100000-C
sell BTC-25OCT24-75000-C + buy BTC-30AUG24-75000-C
ETH's two largest transactions yesterday were buying straddle strategy at the end of September and buying OTM call option strategy in September:
buy ETH-27SEP24-3200-C + buy ETH-27SEP24-3200-P
buy ETH-27SEP24-3900-C
Sol See Star Friends TG Group
III. Macro Market
US Stocks:
The US stock market closed slightly higher yesterday, with the main narrative of technology stocks still strong. Tesla rose more than 5% in a single day, and small tickets were relatively weak; the VIX index fell slightly during the session.
For US bonds, focus on the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on Wednesday, and pay attention to Powell's answers to reporters' questions. For US bonds, we need to pay attention to whether there are new breakthroughs. From my personal model, the next important point for 10-year US bonds is 4.Around 10%.
Spot prices fell, option implied volatility continued to fall, VRP converged, should we go long or short volatility in the future?
Coincall (No. 1 U-based alt options exchange, trading popular alt options such as Sol, Ton, Ordi), a third-party custodial options platform with simple KYC (select HK), invitation link: https://coincall.com/r/19298649
I. Core Views
1- With both spot and implied volatility falling, VRP converges, short vol positions can be gradually reduced, especially do not oversell vol;
2- Last night, I discussed with a crypto player how to go long on ETH. At present, my personal position uses long mid-term ATM call and short short-term call, and the overall retention of +delta, so that Theta is balanced, and the loss of Theta on the decline can earn some Vega if Vega rises
3- If the overall spot price falls, non-volatility trading players can sell some BTC puts, and hoard spot positions of 65,000 will have 50% APR at the end of August
4- The overall IV of alt options on Coincall is also in a downward channel, and option players can sell some Sol and Ordi Put, store spot position
Summary: The crypto market's PUT side implied volatility rose on Friday, and the bulk did not over-purchase put options to protect positions in the medium and long term; pay attention to option MM margin control in the mid-term bull market, and the overall +delta remains unchanged; long vega is not in a hurry to increase positions. Long ETH's Detla is subjectively judged to be worth planning.
2. Option block trading
The two largest transactions of BTC yesterday were as follows: 100,000 call option positions at the end of the year and anti-calendar strategy (optimistic about the Gamma market at the end of August):
buy BTC-27DEC24-100000-C
sell BTC-25OCT24-75000-C + buy BTC-30AUG24-75000-C
ETH's two largest transactions yesterday were buying straddle strategy at the end of September and buying OTM call option strategy in September:
buy ETH-27SEP24-3200-C + buy ETH-27SEP24-3200-P
buy ETH-27SEP24-3900-C
Sol See Star Friends TG Group
III. Macro Market
US Stocks:
The US stock market closed slightly higher yesterday, with the main narrative of technology stocks still strong. Tesla rose more than 5% in a single day, and small tickets were relatively weak; the VIX index fell slightly during the session.
For US bonds, focus on the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on Wednesday, and pay attention to Powell's answers to reporters' questions. For US bonds, we need to pay attention to whether there are new breakthroughs. From my personal model, the next important point for 10-year US bonds is 4.Around 10%.
See original
July 29 Crypto Options Market Research Report
Trump's BTC conference was exciting. After the event was launched, the implied volatility fell from the 85th percentile to below the 50th percentile; event-driven short volatility players won a big victory
Coincall (the first U-based alt options exchange, trading popular alt options such as Sol, Ton, Ordi), a third-party custodial options platform with simple KYC (select HK), invitation link: https://coincall.com/r/19298649
I. Core Views
1- Trump promised at the Bitcoin conference to include Bitcoin in the national reserve in the future. Before the event was launched, the implied volatility of BTC doomsday options soared to more than 100;
2- The spot level maintains the previous view and continues to +delta, but the short-term Trump's call effect is indeed average. Option players should pay attention to the sell call position volume;
3- Focus this week: Fed's July interest rate decision, US non-farm payrolls + my country's PMI. The former corresponds to whether the expectation of US dollar interest rate cuts is accelerating, and the latter corresponds to whether the domestic economy is under pressure to force the policy limit;
4- The copycat option targets Sol and Ordi also showed a drop in volatility of about 20%
Summary: Event-driven weekends and tg group partners communicate about short volatility opportunities, master the asymmetric profit and loss ratio; major events still exist this week, and subsequent daily reports will prompt volatility trading opportunities.
2. Option block trading
BTC and ETH have limited weekend block trading
SOL has a large number of option transactions expiring this Friday (TG group has been prompted)
3. Macro market
US stocks:
Last Friday, SPY and QQQ rose, and the VIX index fell. The overall rebound was smooth and large and small tickets rose at the same time. The overall market liquidity is sufficient. Last Friday and this week, I will continue to choose opportunities to deploy VIX derivatives; DPST option positions expire, and I will continue to roll this week
A shares:
This week, the zzj mid-year economic work conference determined the intensity of short-term economic stimulus. In the case of the market's "immunity" to the determination of institutional reform, whether the stimulus policy will loosen up in the old economy and whether the further supervision of fiscal reinforcement will be implemented is critical. My personal position of index option volatility longs continues to wait patiently and unmoved.
Trump's BTC conference was exciting. After the event was launched, the implied volatility fell from the 85th percentile to below the 50th percentile; event-driven short volatility players won a big victory
Coincall (the first U-based alt options exchange, trading popular alt options such as Sol, Ton, Ordi), a third-party custodial options platform with simple KYC (select HK), invitation link: https://coincall.com/r/19298649
I. Core Views
1- Trump promised at the Bitcoin conference to include Bitcoin in the national reserve in the future. Before the event was launched, the implied volatility of BTC doomsday options soared to more than 100;
2- The spot level maintains the previous view and continues to +delta, but the short-term Trump's call effect is indeed average. Option players should pay attention to the sell call position volume;
3- Focus this week: Fed's July interest rate decision, US non-farm payrolls + my country's PMI. The former corresponds to whether the expectation of US dollar interest rate cuts is accelerating, and the latter corresponds to whether the domestic economy is under pressure to force the policy limit;
4- The copycat option targets Sol and Ordi also showed a drop in volatility of about 20%
Summary: Event-driven weekends and tg group partners communicate about short volatility opportunities, master the asymmetric profit and loss ratio; major events still exist this week, and subsequent daily reports will prompt volatility trading opportunities.
2. Option block trading
BTC and ETH have limited weekend block trading
SOL has a large number of option transactions expiring this Friday (TG group has been prompted)
3. Macro market
US stocks:
Last Friday, SPY and QQQ rose, and the VIX index fell. The overall rebound was smooth and large and small tickets rose at the same time. The overall market liquidity is sufficient. Last Friday and this week, I will continue to choose opportunities to deploy VIX derivatives; DPST option positions expire, and I will continue to roll this week
A shares:
This week, the zzj mid-year economic work conference determined the intensity of short-term economic stimulus. In the case of the market's "immunity" to the determination of institutional reform, whether the stimulus policy will loosen up in the old economy and whether the further supervision of fiscal reinforcement will be implemented is critical. My personal position of index option volatility longs continues to wait patiently and unmoved.
See original
Sober talks about options [Private Tutoring Class 2.0]
Performance is the core
Only passion can lead to deep cultivation
2.0 is about to start
Performance is the core
Only passion can lead to deep cultivation
2.0 is about to start
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